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THE Iran & the Nuclear Factor Thread pt 2 (merged)

For discussions of events and conditions not necessarily related to Peak Oil.

The Arab nuclear genie is out of the bottle and getting busy

Unread postby Zardoz » Sat 26 May 2007, 12:53:19

You can't blame 'em. They all feel they have no choice but to join the nuclear club:

Arabs make plans for nuclear power

As Iran races ahead with an illicit uranium enrichment effort, nearly a dozen other Middle East nations are moving forward on their own civilian nuclear programs. In the latest development, a team of eight U.N. experts on Friday ended a weeklong trip to Saudi Arabia to provide nuclear guidance to officials from six Persian Gulf countries.

Diplomats and analysts view the Saudi trip as the latest sign that Iran's suspected weapons program has helped spark a chain reaction of nuclear interest among its Arab rivals, which some fear will lead to a scramble for atomic weapons in the world's most volatile region.


Wheeeeeeee!!!
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Re: The Arab nuclear genie is out of the bottle and getting

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 26 May 2007, 13:05:06

Just what we need a new Cold war in the Mid East. 2012 is starting to look like a very good year!
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Re: The Arab nuclear genie is out of the bottle and getting

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 26 May 2007, 13:07:41

either they are running out of oil or are trying to make nukes, or both. I vote for both.
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Re: The Arab nuclear genie is out of the bottle and getting

Unread postby mekrob » Sat 26 May 2007, 13:15:08

How large are the reserves of uranium in the Persian Gulf? Or would they be required to import their U?
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Re: The Arab nuclear genie is out of the bottle and getting

Unread postby Starvid » Sat 26 May 2007, 13:30:44

mekrob wrote:How large are the reserves of uranium in the Persian Gulf? Or would they be required to import their U?
There is some uranium in Saudi Arabia, but not much really. And pretty much everyone except Canada and Australia imports uranium, so why worry?
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Re: The Arab nuclear genie is out of the bottle and getting

Unread postby Starvid » Sat 26 May 2007, 13:30:57

Armageddon wrote:either they are running out of oil or are trying to make nukes, or both. I vote for both.
Or they have figured out that electricity from nuclear is cheaper than electricity from oil and gas, and that they would make more money burning less hydrocarbons needlessly at home and exporting more...

I think I know what is most likely...
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Re: The Arab nuclear genie is out of the bottle and getting

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 26 May 2007, 13:40:09

The Sunni and Shia struggle for dominance in the Moslem world has gone on for 600 years and continues today.

When they only had swords they fought with swords.

When they got guns they used guns.

Now they've got bombs and they are using bombs to massacre the other side.

Soon Iran will have nukes. [smilie=XXphyhsassult.gif]
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Re: The Arab nuclear genie is out of the bottle and getting

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sat 26 May 2007, 14:06:28

mekrob wrote:How large are the reserves of uranium in the Persian Gulf? Or would they be required to import their U?


Iran has a lot of uranium, but it's my understanding that it's almost all low quallity. Canada and Australia (Russia?) are the only ones with good uranium outside of a few places in the US.

We should be thankful that quality uranium is not a natural resource in the Mideast, because who knows what they've would have done with it. At this point, some kind of fair system must be put in place so other countries can develop nuclear power.

I'm for building nuclear reactors in the ME to save oil for future generations. This will mean finally dealing with Iran. With Iran having only about 7 years of oil exports left, something has to be done soon. Otherwise Iran will feel it's future is being destroyed. They will not go quietly into chaos like some unfortunate African countries.
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Re: The Arab nuclear genie is out of the bottle and getting

Unread postby RdSnt » Sat 26 May 2007, 14:24:45

Iran is self-sufficient in uranium. It has one of the largest reserves.
Unfortunately it is contaminated with molybdenum. It's one of those teeny-tiny, insignificant details that the media and BushCo. wish to have everyone overlook.
The contamination makes purifying the u-hexafloride to weapons grade exponentially more difficult than it normal is.
It's so difficult that no-one mines uranium that is contaminated, because no one will buy it.

Starvid wrote:
mekrob wrote:How large are the reserves of uranium in the Persian Gulf? Or would they be required to import their U?
There is some uranium in Saudi Arabia, but not much really. And pretty much everyone except Canada and Australia imports uranium, so why worry?
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Re: The Arab nuclear genie is out of the bottle and getting

Unread postby mekrob » Sat 26 May 2007, 14:25:37

Plantagenet wrote:The Sunni and Shia struggle for dominance in the Moslem world has gone on for 600 years and continues today.

When they only had swords they fought with swords.

When they got guns they used guns.

Now they've got bombs and they are using bombs to massacre the other side.

Soon Iran will have nukes. [smilie=XXphyhsassult.gif]


Actually, it's been 1374 (solar) years or 1417 (Islamic) years.

And guess what? That's what all people, regardless of region, religion, ethnicity, economy, 'advancement' as a civilization, etc do. Everyone wages war. I'm sick of people trying to excuse any violence in the Middle East, Africa, or other 'Third World' countries by implying that it's in their genes, rather than, correctly, in our genes.

---
Thanks for the info on the U in the region and world, everyone.
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Re: The Arab nuclear genie is out of the bottle and getting

Unread postby RdSnt » Sat 26 May 2007, 14:34:56

Zardoz wrote:Arabs make plans for nuclear power

As Iran races ahead with an illicit uranium enrichment effort,


Hang on a minute. It is not an illicit effort. Iran is legally within its rights to enrich uranium. Furthermore it, unlike Israel, is a signator to the non-proliferation treaty.
No one has provided any evidence that Iran is developing weapons.

That at some point they will have the capability to refine to weapons grade levels is a given. Everyone with nuclear technology has that option.
Iran is refining to 3%, and they need to ramp up to thousands of centrifuges to be able to produce practical amounts of reactor fuel.
Weapons grade is 80%+, is exponentially harder to achieve and requires 10's of thousands of centrifuges. Simply to assemble the infrastructure, never mind the expertise and knowledge, is going to take years.
It's simple math and engineering.

That Iran likely wants nuclear weapons I would say is also a given. In their position I would as well.
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Re: The Arab nuclear genie is out of the bottle and getting

Unread postby mekrob » Sat 26 May 2007, 14:39:35

And what is the percentage of refinement needed to make a workable dirty bomb? I imagine they'll roll a few of these off immediately since they probably don't have the time to get fission or fusion nuclear weapons nor would they even have the delivery capabilities that would be required to be used as either a deterrent or aggressive weapon.
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Re: The Arab nuclear genie is out of the bottle and getting

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 26 May 2007, 15:22:45

RdSnt wrote:Iran is self-sufficient in uranium. It has one of the largest reserves.
Unfortunately it is contaminated with molybdenum. It's one of those teeny-tiny, insignificant details that the media and BushCo. wish to have everyone overlook.
The contamination makes purifying the u-hexafloride to weapons grade exponentially more difficult than it normal is.
It's so difficult that no-one mines uranium that is contaminated, because no one will buy it.

Starvid wrote:
mekrob wrote:How large are the reserves of uranium in the Persian Gulf? Or would they be required to import their U?
There is some uranium in Saudi Arabia, but not much really. And pretty much everyone except Canada and Australia imports uranium, so why worry?


If what you are saying is accurate then a rational Iran would be building CANDU reactors which could burn their Uranium without seperating out the Molly first.

Failing that pyroprocessing electrolytically isn't THAT hard to do, just expensive when Uranium was so cheap.
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Re: The Arab nuclear genie is out of the bottle and getting

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 26 May 2007, 15:29:04

RdSnt wrote:That at some point they will have the capability to refine to weapons grade levels is a given. Everyone with nuclear technology has that option.
Iran is refining to 3%, and they need to ramp up to thousands of centrifuges to be able to produce practical amounts of reactor fuel.
Weapons grade is 80%+, is exponentially harder to achieve and requires 10's of thousands of centrifuges. Simply to assemble the infrastructure, never mind the expertise and knowledge, is going to take years.
It's simple math and engineering.

That Iran likely wants nuclear weapons I would say is also a given. In their position I would as well.


Hang on a minute, it is within the realm of possibillity to build a workable fission explosive with Uranium enriched anywhere from 20% up. The higher the enrichment the less 'special material' you need and the less weight and complexity in the design, but that doesn't make a 25% enriched bomb impossible, just bulky and expensive. Say something just small enough to fit in a standard large shipping container, like you see on Semi trucks and well cars on Railroads. If you don;t worry about using ICBM or backpack delivery systems then bulk and weight become much less important and so does the level of enrichment.
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Re: The Arab nuclear genie is out of the bottle and getting

Unread postby Kristen » Sat 26 May 2007, 15:32:02

Well if Iran is going to have one, than they should be allowed as well. having a nuclear weapon is a detterent. Honestly if anyone uses a nuclear bomb they're asking to die. There's also so much negative propaganda about the middle east and because I haven't been there or met them I can't judge them.
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Re: The Arab nuclear genie is out of the bottle and getting

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 26 May 2007, 15:32:29

mekrob said:
And what is the percentage of refinement needed to make a workable dirty bomb?


May I ask, who would they use a dirty bomb on? Dirty bombs, in spite of the huge amount of demonetization they have been given by the press to promote the War on Terror, are essentially not very effective in a war scenario; small aerial and ground disbursement and limited lethalness. Definitely not a fighting weapon compared to other alternatives. If Iran used such a weapon aggressively, it would be so chastised by the world community, that its economy would be completely destroyed. I doubt that they could justify its usage in even the most extreme situation.
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Re: The Arab nuclear genie is out of the bottle and getting

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 26 May 2007, 16:48:04

mekrob wrote:I'm sick of people trying to excuse any violence in the Middle East, Africa, or other 'Third World' countries by implying that it's in their genes



Its a racist idea to suggest that third world people are in some special way genetically predisposed to war. If anything, Europeans have been much better at war. The reasons for this are complex, but probably involve culture not genetics. The superiority of Europeans at warfare is why western colonialism succeeded around the world, and western culture is the prevalent global culture today.

Similarly, the conflicts within the Moslem community that have produced a millenia of wars between the Shia and Sunni are based on historical grievances and religous and cultural differences, and have almost nothing to do with racial or genetic differences.
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Re: The Arab nuclear genie is out of the bottle and getting

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 26 May 2007, 17:41:40

shortonoil wrote:May I ask, who would they use a dirty bomb on? Dirty bombs, in spite of the huge amount of demonetization they have been given by the press to promote the War on Terror, are essentially not very effective in a war scenario; small aerial and ground disbursement and limited lethalness. Definitely not a fighting weapon compared to other alternatives.



The typical "dirty bomb" scenario involves a terror attack within an urban center where civilians work and live.
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Re: The Arab nuclear genie is out of the bottle and getting

Unread postby eric_b » Sat 26 May 2007, 19:16:10

I'm more concerned with the American 'nuclear genie' which is larger than any virtual Arab nuclear program will ever be, and is still growing. Recently it's been insinuated the US will not hesitate to use nukes in a first strike scenario.
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Re: The Arab nuclear genie is out of the bottle and getting

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 26 May 2007, 19:41:12

Plantagenet said:

The typical "dirty bomb" scenario involves a terror attack within an urban center where civilians work and live.


I will reiterate, whom would Iran attack with such a weapon. The source of that kind of weapon can not be hidden. Analysis of the fall out can identify the mine that the material originated from, the reactor that processed it, even the plant in which the weapon was fabricated. World wide retaliation in response to such an act would be absolutely devastating; in comparison the gain would only be minuscule. The idea of Iran perpetrating that kind of event, borders on the verge of absurd.


"If we believe absurdities, we will commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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