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The Shape of the World in 2020

For discussions of events and conditions not necessarily related to Peak Oil.

The Shape of the World in 2020

Unread postby Oilguy » Fri 17 Dec 2010, 18:06:39

None can foretell the future, and yet the shape of what we face can be shrewdly estimated with enough attention to historical trends; with broad contextual understanding; and with sufficient insight into the character of leaders, their societies, and the structures which define their basis.

These estimates will be tempered by the sudden acts of nature, the sudden emergence of true leadership from unexpected quarters, or key breakthroughs in science. Still, we can hazard reliable views on the shape of the world in, say, a decade — in 2020 — if present trends and characters remain, and on a knowledge of certain baseline levels of wealth and capability which presently exist.

In 2011, the world will probably remain beset by the lingering of the present crisis of currency levels and economic performance. This is essentially a mass psychological crisis, based around the perceptions which create trust, particularly trust in asset values and institutions.

In some respect, historical trends have given populations in modern societies excessive trust in the ability of their institutions to remain operational, untended by their populations. As a result, governments have grown larger and less efficient, and have arrogated to themselves more and more of the resources of societies, thereby inhibiting productivity. At some point, those societies, when beleaguered and impoverished, lose faith in the institutions of governance and leadership succession.

It is possible that the end of the second decade of the 21st Century will see exactly that tipping point, at which faith — a psychological attribute — disappears, and either rigid reaction or anomie and chaos intervene. This forecast is based on the existing performance of most governments of modern economies, but reactions of their societies will vary based on their individual natures, their reserves of wealth, and the degree to which government and leaders can adapt radically to reignite and impart purpose and prosperity to their societies.

At present, in 2010, we see no major societies prepared to take such radical steps to reverse trends of social distrust in systems, and, indeed, the accumulation of laws and customs actually makes such radical action infeasible or unlikely, except in the event of major external threat, such as war.

This trend to inflexibility and resistance to radical change (which would entail discomfort and the removal of personal wealth) has reinforced a “business as usual” attitude. People rarely see the extent of change occurring around them; it is disguised by a continuity of visual references; and the presence of institutions which have not previously failed them.

In fact, it has been said of the modern era that institutions have evolved specifically to disguise change, because change appears threatening. Thus, when systems finally break down under the weight of debt, social change, and reaction, the event appears sudden and unexpected.

Some societies will merely erode into lower expectations of their own domestic and international capabilities, and well-being: many modern societies will allow themselves to decline in “a step of sighs”, occasionally rebuilding to some degree, only to resume their downward steps, unless confronted with an existential challenge which forces them to cut away the inhibiting dross of years, and infuses them with the energy to respond.

So, then, the coming decade promises a continuation of the declining fortunes in major modern economies, absent the catalyst to reverse the trend.

And if Western societies falter, will new societies step forward to claim wealth and power? Not necessarily. There is no guarantee of continued growth in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the Republic of Korea (RoK), the Russian Federation, or India. Each has their frailties, and each is dependent on the global wealth to varying degrees.

Indeed, it would be reckless to over-state the resilience of the PRC, Indian, and even Russian economies, bearing in mind their own institutional constraints and their low per capita wealth. Even more important is the fact that each of these societies, again in varying measure, have failed to build the granite base of self-confidence within their societies in the durability and infallibility of their national hierarchies.

We see, as this column has said in the past, the ongoing lack of a global reserve currency, for example, to replace the United States dollar, because neither the PRC’s yuan, the Indian rupee, the Russian ruble, nor the euro are yet greeted with true global credibility.

How, then, do we measure wealth, and power, absent a currency yardstick?

This brings up the next factor in sustaining wealth, even wealth abstractly denominated by a currency. Wealth is based on trust in currency which is in turn based on trust in the underlying asset values which support it. In modern societies — those with internationally tradable currencies — asset value has moved from a nominal dependence on gold to a dependence on other physical determinables.

To a great degree, this was, for decades, based on the strength of the manufactures of primary and secondary industry, and also on the demand for — and therefore the “value” of — real estate. The leveraging of real estate as the basis for access to capital has become the basis of Western investment, taxation, and power.

It was this fundamental which was at the heart of the “global financial crisis” of the past two years: the attempt to build real estate values rapidly and artificially [if any aspect of the “value process” can be said to be not artificial; e.g. outside of a real market.]

That bubble burst, and with it much of the ability to amass capital and move it globally. The result will be evident over the coming decade in a reversion to more difficult capital formation; increasing nationalism and resultant bilateralism of trade funding; and so on.

But there are other trends which will help determine outcomes over the coming decade, particularly the suddenness with which changing demographic patterns begin to bite. We can see, for example, the impact which the La Niña floods had in skewing the population dispersal patterns in Pakistan, the country with the highest level of population growth and the highest rate of urbanization. Now, the agricultural productivity of rural areas has been damaged by the flooding and more people have moved to the cities, substantially decreasing the per capita productivity there.

However, in most modern societies the peaking of population growth rates, and the move toward sudden population declines, will occur possibly within the coming decade. Population levels in a number of major nations are presently not sustainable by replacement births, and it may be that we begin to see areas gradually depopulate, reducing the demand for real estate, which has been the modern basis for wealth measurement and currency value.

The last such major depopulation occurred with the great plague which followed the globalization of Genghis Khan in the 12th and 13th centuries, but at that time abstract value — such as portable wealth, expressed in currency — was not so dependent on real estate, and particularly highly-valued urban real estate.

So the world in 2020 could see a significant decline in the availability of capital (in real terms; the availability of printed, inflated money will not be meaningful); in the mobility of societies and their ability to access goods not produced within easy reach. All this will occur unless radical steps are taken to revive real productivity and the self-reliance of societies.

And such radicalism is possible only through leadership. It is that which we await.

Source: http://www.globalintelligencereport.com ... ld-in-2020

Analysis by Gregory R. Copley, Editor, GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs for The Global Intelligence Report. Visit: www.globalintelligencereport.com for breaking geopolitical news.
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Re: The Shape of the World in 2020

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 17 Dec 2010, 18:44:09

A slightly flattened sphere.
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Re: The Shape of the World in 2020

Unread postby scas » Sun 19 Dec 2010, 02:43:37

2020...while I can't say what exactly will happen, famine and drought seems likely to me. The obesity epidemic may be winding down and anorexia may be the new thing. As energy costs soar, hot and cold deaths may become more common, and regional violence and warfare may increase. Ethnic cleansing may become more common as dictators realize foreign powers won't intervene.

I still have hope for medical biotech and crop engineering though - at the same time I worry of clandestine scientists fooling around with viruses in hope of 'saving the world'. Or perhaps we may see governments resorting to geo-engineering.
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Re: The Shape of the World in 2020

Unread postby evgeny » Wed 19 Jan 2011, 14:33:50

Oilguy wrote:And if Western societies falter, will new societies step forward to claim wealth and power? Not necessarily. There is no guarantee of continued growth in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the Republic of Korea (RoK), the Russian Federation, or India. Each has their frailties, and each is dependent on the global wealth to varying degrees.

Indeed, it would be reckless to over-state the resilience of the PRC, Indian, and even Russian economies, bearing in mind their own institutional constraints and their low per capita wealth. Even more important is the fact that each of these societies, again in varying measure, have failed to build the granite base of self-confidence within their societies in the durability and infallibility of their national hierarchies.

We see, as this column has said in the past, the ongoing lack of a global reserve currency, for example, to replace the United States dollar, because neither the PRC’s yuan, the Indian rupee, the Russian ruble, nor the euro are yet greeted with true global credibility.


"We've Heard All This About American Decline Before."

This time it's different. It's certainly true that America has been through cycles of declinism in the past. Campaigning for the presidency in 1960, John F. Kennedy complained, "American strength relative to that of the Soviet Union has been slipping, and communism has been advancing steadily in every area of the world." Ezra Vogel's Japan as Number One was published in 1979, heralding a decade of steadily rising paranoia about Japanese manufacturing techniques and trade policies.

In the end, of course, the Soviet and Japanese threats to American supremacy proved chimerical. So Americans can be forgiven if they greet talk of a new challenge from China as just another case of the boy who cried wolf. But a frequently overlooked fact about that fable is that the boy was eventually proved right. The wolf did arrive -- and China is the wolf.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... e?page=0,0
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Re: The Shape of the World in 2020

Unread postby sparky » Thu 27 Jan 2011, 02:25:33

.
Well , 2020 is not so far so ,some trends can be extended
food will not be cheaper ,or petrol ( gas ) there will be little job growth
unemployment dance around 10%

That's for the U.S. and Europe
Russia had some good growth in the usual wasteful way
China and Latin America purr along
Africa is a train wreck

That's the optimistic scenario

The other one is

Everybody has a job at the military plant and get fed once a day
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Re: The Shape of the World in 2020

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 28 Jan 2011, 11:19:13

I think the only way to analyze 2020 is to say what happens with or without the American Empire. Obviously the Empire is under pressure, mostly from within. The current Arab crisis only serves to point out the frailty of US support of friendly dictatorships as a means to project power. That policy failed eventually in Central America in the twentieth century. It is now failing in the Arab World. The failure is one of lack of anything organized to take the place of the dictatorships, except poverty and struggle. The thing is Central America was only really a prize in a Cold War game. The Arab world is a prize in the world energy game. There is a huge difference. Whereas the rest of the world left Central America to flounder in the wake of US failure, once the true path of occurrences became obvious, many players will remain in the Arab game.
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Re: The Shape of the World in 2020

Unread postby sparky » Fri 28 Jan 2011, 19:40:14

.
Central america has been unde U.S. pressure since the Cuban Spanish war at least ,
certainly since the drilling of the Panama canal
The marines have saved democracy , Standard Oil and United Fruits heap of times before WW2

Now we are going toward Peak Pentagon ,
11 Carrier Battle groups are a luxury the U.S. cannot afford anymore
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Re: The Shape of the World in 2020

Unread postby evilgenius » Mon 31 Jan 2011, 16:59:23

sparky wrote:.
Central america has been unde U.S. pressure since the Cuban Spanish war at least ,
certainly since the drilling of the Panama canal
The marines have saved democracy , Standard Oil and United Fruits heap of times before WW2

Now we are going toward Peak Pentagon ,
11 Carrier Battle groups are a luxury the U.S. cannot afford anymore


There is no denying that. The total cluster that is Central America now is largely a result of the US no longer seeing it as important enough to invest billions into. The last US led intervention in the area was, I think, the one under Bush when Aristide was ousted from Haiti in order to keep leverage on Venezuela. That one was relatively cheap to carry out, nothing like opposing Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua.

Don't forget that Carrier Battle Groups are not only vulnerable to revenue cuts. The world is becoming increasingly dangerous for so much money to be tied up into something that can now actually be sunk. If only they had spent that on energy research or to put people through college. I hate that the US has essentially decided, as a group of people rather than as a government, to take the self-indulgent, imperial hubris approach to the 21st century. Everywhere whining about things missing that are 'ours by right'. Nowhere any talk of re-engineering the system or building a successful America out of what there is to build with (except for the many back yard chicken movements). Eventually the Tea Party will pass away dissolved in its own bile, but then what?
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Re: The Shape of the World in 2020

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 16 Oct 2017, 22:43:04

Wow, this popped into my feed today and I must say with jst a little over two years left the OP predictions look wildly doomy compared to reality.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: The Shape of the World in 2020

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 17 Oct 2017, 18:18:30

Subjectivist wrote:Wow, this popped into my feed today and I must say with jst a little over two years left the OP predictions look wildly doomy compared to reality.

And yet, our perennial hard crash doomer crowd will insist on the doomy reality until the date passes and reset for 2030, etc. And anyone expressing any doubt, given current trends and objective data will be labeled a "corny", stupid, a troll, etc.

And so it goes. Me -- I just let time pass. Unless something extreme occurs, my general moderate outlook tends to be proven right over time. It's the easy statistical bet. (And I don't think the extremes can be predicted -- ESPECIALLY the timing, so I'd rather relax and enjoy life instead of fretting about the future.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The Shape of the World in 2020

Unread postby mmasters » Tue 17 Oct 2017, 19:20:09

The future is the haves and the have nots. Make sure you do your best to make something of yourself and be a have.
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Re: The Shape of the World in 2020

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 17 Oct 2017, 20:54:13

One may consider the study of an old forecast featured here:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... g-collapse

Given that, what will reverse the trend for resource availability? We've been seeing diminishing returns across various industries, including oil, where discoveries have been in decline for decades. In contrast to that, resource demand grows due to rising numbers of people who want cars, houses, etc.

On top of that, the forecast did not look at the effects of global warming.
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Re: The Shape of the World in 2020

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 11 Dec 2019, 11:42:35

Protests and more protests
https://www.truthdig.com/articles/the-m ... the-globe/

The Media Are Blatantly Ignoring Uprisings Across the Globe
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Re: The Shape of the World in 2020

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 12 Nov 2020, 19:33:31

sparky wrote:.
Well , 2020 is not so far so ,some trends can be extended
food will not be cheaper ,or petrol ( gas ) there will be little job growth
unemployment dance around 10%

That's for the U.S. and Europe
Russia had some good growth in the usual wasteful way
China and Latin America purr along
Africa is a train wreck

That's the optimistic scenario

The other one is

Everybody has a job at the military plant and get fed once a day


Turns out your "optimistic" scenario is far too heavily weighted to a collapsing civilization.

Instead for good or ill business as usual continues more or less as it was in 2010. Anyone care to guess about 2030?
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: The Shape of the World in 2020

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 14 Nov 2020, 11:50:57

I read, somewhere, in the last decade that the F-35 is designed to address the carrier vulnerability problem. Power projection shouldn't become an issue in the next ten years. I don't know, maybe the F-35 will meet unexpected countermeasures? Probably, there won't be a war with China over Taiwan.

A thing that does worry me is where tomorrow will take the concept of support for the chronically unemployed. There are fault lines across America, and they mostly have to do with how people perceive their economic situations.

People appealed to Donald Trump for help because they were having a hard time competing economically. They attached bogeyman fears to certain groups, as people always do when they have those fears. They cited, I think incorrectly, globalism as the source of their problem.

I think it lay more with an inability to plan rather than plan as we went for the changes globalism would bring. We never did retrain people on the scale necessary. We laughed at too many technological niches that became available to people rather than realizing what sorts of new opportunities where there for us. Just because there isn't, hopefully, war with China, doesn't mean those fears were completely unfounded. A pause in the fracturing of the US relationship with China is all we will get, unless the US can compete with the workforce it has in the new world where those opportunities we laughed at are the ones that drive everything.

Large numbers of people could become chronically unemployed. Having to switch so many times in a lifetime among professions will always mean having to compete against those who have already been doing what you are now just getting into. It could feel like everything is rigged.

If we address that with a solution that doesn't involve some sort of dynamism that projects toward the markets, then we could be looking at something that is too static. It may amount to stifling competition because markets function too far outside of the machinations that effect them. We could pick winners and losers. Then, when those winners get too far outside of what it takes to succeed, there would be only too much whining about how a company is "too big to fail." We can't expect our political system to protect us from this. It is far too beholden to large, corporate, campaign contributors, the kind only too likely to become "too big to fail."
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Re: The Shape of the World in 2020

Unread postby jato0072 » Tue 14 Jun 2022, 21:07:57

oilguy wrote:So the world in 2020 could see a significant decline in the availability of capital (in real terms; the availability of printed, inflated money will not be meaningful); in the mobility of societies and their ability to access goods not produced within easy reach. All this will occur unless radical steps are taken to revive real productivity and the self-reliance of societies.


Image


I don't think oilguy knew the US would get an oil fracking party during the teens. Once the party is over (this decade?) things might get spicy.
"On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero."
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Re: The Shape of the World in 2020

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Wed 19 Oct 2022, 22:57:48

Maybe we need governments to start measuring the budgetary effects on the well being of their citizens ?
It might help realign voting patterns with politicians that benefit them and society and it might realign politicians towards wanting to improve the lives of its citizens/voters and not its lobby groups.
.....................
When Jim Chalmers (Australian treasurer) announced in July that his first budget would include options to measure community wellbeing – rather than just measuring GDP – it didn’t take a genius to predict some of the media coverage.

The young, lefty treasurer, in an ashram with a yoga mat and some kombucha, limbering up for his next downward dog.

The approach that’s been labelled by some as “hippy economics” is actually an idea that experts and the public are crying out for.
Jim Chalmers has a unique chance to remake Australia – or to squander $243bn on the rich | Richard Denniss


Don’t take my word for it: the Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz was in Australia at the time and said: “The responsibility of the treasurer is really to make sure the budget – the money – is used to improve the wellbeing of the people of Australia.”

The other point is that a “wellbeing budget” isn’t new.
The notion of measuring the health and wellbeing of a society through accessibility to housing and community cohesion was first floated by the US presidential aspirant Bobby Kennedy in the 60s.

It was more than 20 years ago that the former Treasury secretary Dr Ken Henry developed and implemented a wellbeing framework for his department to measure whether economic policies improve people’s lives or whether they are falling short.

New Zealand’s doing it, as well as Scotland and Canada.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... to-deliver
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Re: The Shape of the World in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 20 Oct 2022, 00:22:41

Shaved Monkey wrote:
It was more than 20 years ago that the former Treasury secretary Dr Ken Henry developed and implemented a wellbeing framework for his department to measure whether economic policies improve people’s lives or whether they are falling short.

New Zealand’s doing it, as well as Scotland and Canada.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... to-deliver


What would you define as an economic policy that "improves people's lives"?

On my part, I would say that the old-fashioned economic policies that improve things like a countries GDP and growth rate and worker productivity lead to more wealth in the society, and more wealth will tend to improve people's lives in the society. I think economic policies have traditionally focussed on improving a country's wealth.

However, I get the impression you want something different from economics????? But what is it you actually want?

Image
What exactly is it that you want economic policies and your federal budget to do in Australia?

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