[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

The political showdown over the future of Pemex, the Mexican government's crucial oil monopoly, appears to loom at last.

At stake, people on both sides of the clash say, is the viability of Mexico's petroleum industry, which ranks as the third-largest source of imported U.S. oil and supplies nearly 40 percent of the Mexican government's budget.

Pemex — which exports about 1.4 million barrels of crude a day to the United States, most of it through Houston and its environs — has acknowledged that its oil production and reserves are dropping fast.

Many across the political spectrum here agree something must be done, and quickly, to reverse the tide, but the showdown isn't expected to come for several months. The argument involves whether to invite in American and other foreign oil companies, which have the advanced technology and resources to find more petroleum, and on what terms to do so.

-snip-

"The capacity of Mexico to produce petroleum is declining because our proven reserves are running out," Calderon said last week in Los Angeles, where he ended a five-day tour of the U.S. "They probably will last nine more years."

-snip-

Houston Chronicle

Can you imagine the effect of losing 1 1/2 mbpd? *Shudder!*

[DantesPeak]

The Wall Street Journal the other day gave Mexico seven more years of oil exports.

When we first discussed the decline of Cantarell a few years or so back here at PO, Mexico was still saying oil production would be increasing.

For newcomers here, the reason so much Western help will be needed is the so called new oil fields can only be developed at great cost - with 1000 to 10000 new wells. Plus mostly an entirely new oil collection system will have to built to collect and distribute what oil is found.

Being this area frequently has rough weather and even hurricanes, the praciticality of developing these new fields is questionable.

[eastbay]

If the WSJ gives Mexico seven more years of exports, they probably have more like three or four more years of exports.

Cantarell provided Mexico with an artificially high standard of living, as readers here well know. When it's nears depletion in a few years, Mexico will begin to suffer poverty known only to the poorest people on earth.

This is an epic disaster for not only Mexico but for the USA as well. Most likely Canada as well since Mexicans fleeing starvation will migrate north in increasing numbers.

Especially since the USA and Canada so strongly encourage this mass migration.

[roccman]

This is an epic disaster for not only Mexico but for the USA as well. Most likely Canada as well since Mexicans fleeing starvation will migrate north in increasing numbers.

Especially since the USA and Canada so strongly encourage this mass migration.

Oh yes - and Phoenix is already busting at the seams.

The pain will be exquisite.

[DantesPeak]

If the WSJ gives Mexico seven more years of exports, they probably have more like three or four more years of exports.

That might be a good guess if you exclude the oil that's returned to Mexico as refined products. Or in other words, shipments to the US won't stop for some time, but most of that oil exported will eventually be sent back to Mexico in a different form.

[eastbay]

Oh yes, exquisite indeed! People all across North America will soon learn the meaning of 'suffering.'

I wonder if Mexico could afford to buy refined petroleum products from anywhere in three or four years. Where will they get the money? Mexico exports little else (not even drugs) anywhere near as valuable as the crude oil now exported.

Mexico currently taps into their vast, yet quickly shrinking, oil export revenue to purchase refined products from the USA. That revenue will cease in a few years. It'll be interesting to watch them try to buy tankers of gasoline when they have no money. It'll be even more interesting to watch them try to buy corn when it's all being burned in American cars and trucks. This is really 'epic'... 'historic' .... wow, hard to find words to describe the utter and complete horror they will soon face.

[Armageddon]

Maybe soon people will realize why 911 was needed.

[strider3700]

Maybe soon people will realize why 911 was needed.

If 911 had resulted in a really big secure wall across the border then I could see why it was needed but I don't think they actually secured the borders very much. Perhaps there is a different reason it was needed?

[Armageddon]

If 911 had resulted in a really big secure wall across the border then I could see why it was needed but I don't think they actually secured the borders very much. Perhaps there is a different reason it was needed?

They don't care about illegal aliens, they care about securing the middle eastern oil fields before China does. He who controls the ME oil, controls the world. Very simple.