THE OPEC Thread pt 7 (merged)

[Ferretlover]

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/08/15/1092508262703.html?oneclick=true
Cue theme from The Twilight Zone

[Jack]

There are conflicting currents. I suspect we'll see some fluctuations in price - if nothing else, the present price may initiate a recession, which would reduce demand.

On the other hand, I don't sense the strong bullish consensus that often signals market tops...

Personally, I'll be surprised if we go below $40 anytime soon. Or, perhaps, ever.

[Newbie]

Ok, first IEA says we need more, now OPEC says we have too much.

Purnomo, after making a serious gaff earlier this year by saying: "There is no more supply" has been trying very hard to jawbone prices down. But that's all it is, talk. Talk is cheap. OPEC is probably near apopleptic (sp?) about prices and their inability to produce it away in the near term. So then we have this tug of war politics. This is especially interesting given the latest IEA news item we saw (3 mb/d shortage projected).

link

Purnomo Says World Has Oil Oversupply, Concern Easing (Update1)
Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro said the world is oversupplied with about 1.5 million barrels of oil a day and falling prices in the futures market suggest an easing of concern over supply disruptions.

[mididoctors]

Ok, first IEA says we need more, now OPEC says we have too much.

Purnomo Says World Has Oil Oversupply, Concern Easing
Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro said the world is oversupplied with about 1.5 million barrels of oil a day and falling prices in the futures market suggest an easing of concern over supply disruptions.

this sort of short term posturing by both sides of the supply and demand curve doesn't help produce perfect (or best possible) market information for rational investment decisions.

the problem is the oil when finally sold to an end user will have the right price.. storage and stockpiling allows buyers/middlemen to steal potential supplier profits its hard to imagine suppliers developing mass storage capacity to become there own middlemen... OTOH

[UncoveringTruths]

"We're drowning in heavy, sour crude from OPEC so that a 200,000-300,000 barrel a day cut from the Saudis is no big deal." The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has been pumping about a million barrels daily above its formal 27 million bpd target.

Have the OPECians been drowning the market in Heavy sour crude to cover shortcomings in light sweet crude? I bet so.. Oil Steadies as Saudi Exports Trimmed

[Petro]

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/e0cdc282-ee47- ... 511c8.html

[Barbara]

Everything falls in place Petro. Check my post here:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic9664.html

And remember the 17% depletion of North Sea oil. Blair must have been pushed Bush a lot lately...

[Petro]

UGH! Someone pinch me. I see it, read it, look around and blink.

[Aaron]

But private warnings also point to a worsening long-term outllook, with Saudi officials saying that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will be unable to meet projected western demand in 10 to 15 years.

[Petro]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong as I weave in and out of PO to keep sane, (yes I do consider myself sane), but isn't this the first [real], admission from SA that there is a [real], problem. Rather than the typical, '...we have all the oil you need...'?

[DomusAlbion]

But private warnings also point to a worsening long-term outllook, with Saudi officials saying that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will be unable to meet projected western demand in 10 to 15 years.

If they are admitting this in public or even privately to customers that means they're probably already having trouble meeting demand NOW!

[Yossarian]

Finish the quote "When SA can no longer act as a 'swing' producer..."

[Ferretlover]

For the life of me, I can't figure out what they are saying:

This is July's OPEC monthly report.

According to the latest preliminary data, oil consumption in North America has been sluggish in the first half of 2005 — growth rates were slightly lower than 1% y-o-y for the first and second quarter. Demand growth rates for the last two quarters have been estimated at 1.3% and 1.6% based on the higher US GDP figure and good demand in Mexico. The EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report showed that total US product supply for the period January-June 2005 stood at 20.55 mb/d, 1.2% higher compared to the same period of 2004. The major product categories for the first six-month period show the following yo-y growth: gasoline 1.3%, distillates 1.9%, fuel oil 8.3% and kerosene 2.8%. Canada’s demand fell by 1.6% in April following a 2.7% rise in the first quarter of 2005 and there are indications of a further decline in May. In contrast, Mexico’s appetite for oil has been growing rapidly with consumption rising by 6.1% in April after a 3% rise in the first quarter of 2005.

This is how I am understanding it: North America oil demand for first and second quarter is less than 1% increase over last year for the same periods. But, US gasoline, distillates, fuel oil, kerosene demand all increase more than 1%. Canada has 1.6% decrease for April, but a 2.7% increase in first quarter. Mexico has increase 3% in first quarter.

Now, I see US increasing, Canada increasing, Mexico definitely increasing. Who is in North America? Why NA is growing less than 1%?

[RonMN]

If mexico isn't considered to be part of "north america" in this report than it would make sence. A 1.6 & 1.3% increase for USA slightly dropped by the decline for canada comming to near 1% growth.

If they consider mexico to be part of "north america" then this makes no sence at all.

[Ferretlover]

Well we should blame OPEC for lies and secrecy about reserves but all this loser does is blame them for prices.
RedNova

[patmaster75]

I agree with what he is saying about the big oil companies - they have "economies" larger than most countries and they are making record profits... they arent helping much with giving us a picture of the oil reserves left either...

[MD]

As I have stated many times in these forums, pay very close attention to what the oil majors do with their record profits. Much truth will be told by their decisions over the next 24 months.

[merecat]

Blame opec for what?

They've done nothing wrong!

People should bear in mind that OPEC does own the oil, it is not the customers right to buy the oil, it is the sellers choice to put it on the market. To think otherwise is to disagree with property rights and that is brutish and uncivilised.

Just think what OPEC could do, they could snap "no, no more oil for you!" then we, the western addicts, would have to go cold turkey and we would get the shivers, creeps and shakes....

So we should bow graciously, and thank OPEC every day.

[MD]

yes, behave and be nice or it's "No Soup For You!"

[turmoil]

you guys smell something?