my lack of arguments

[dsula]

In my small rural town I find myself frequently arguing end-of-growth with my fellow town folks.

Although I have a crap-load of high level arguments about oil depletion, energy usage, system interdepedence, food shortages, population overshoot etc. etc, I find myself frequently stuck and unable to defeat the simple:

Our town has been growing for 100 years, it will keep on growing, people won't stop having babies and soon our economy will be back on track, it's always been like that.

What am I to say? I'm trying to explain that past experiences is no guarantee for the future. But hardly anybody takes notice. How can I get people to stop and listen, so I can at least try to bring higher level arguments into play?

Thank you for any advice.

[vision-master]

What kind of changes do you propose people make?

[seenmostofit]

What am I to say? I'm trying to explain that past experiences is no guarantee for the future. But hardly anybody takes notice. How can I get people to stop and listen, so I can at least try to bring higher level arguments into play?
Thank you for any advice.

First, you must convince them that no matter what they can see, think, or feel, the world is collapsing everywhere else. They must be disconnected from reality to make collapse propaganda more palatable. This is usually done through a series of charts and graphs on topics they are unfamiliar with, and should be rushed through quickly lest they actually investigate the information and discover how wrong it is. Then they must be introduced to websites and sources of information which already accept collapse as a precept and talk about the horror of it, examples of it, utube videos and bell shaped curves should be the main pieces of evidence, and logic and critical thinking minimized. Fortunately, those examples are from far away places and it is unlikely people in your small town will have traveled their recently to know how far fetched the claims of websites and whatnot are.

By pointing these people are the websites and sources you believe in, they too can be convinced to believe the same things. The real question then becomes, how long can you keep them on the hook? Some will undoubtedly travel, and in so doing will learn that the world outside your small town isn't really as it has been presented. Someone may actually buy an EV or Volt and realize that lack of liquid fuels just doesn't bother them that much, some will calculate the returns from their mutual funds or stock market trading and figure out that collapse is pretty hard to have when the markets are still working, and people can still profit doing the types of things they have been doing for centuries.

But don't worry, keep at it, if the ratio of american posters to collapse websites to total Americans is any measure, in a small town there will be certainly one person you can sway to your side, or half a person perhaps. It is most likely to be the mentally weak, or perhaps the most gullible and most likely to follow because they have no friends, perhaps a dull local Amish citizen (they being predisposed to "going back to the land")? But keep at it....there is a sucker born every minute, and your job is just to find them, and then sell...sell...sell.

[Lore]

Simple, as in any financial disclaimer, just tell them to read the fine print. "Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results"

In the scheme of things 100 years is a very short time. Many people can't remember what they had for lunch the previous day, let alone contemplate historical facts in the human struggle. The majority of people alive today have lived in one of the most stable times in human history with unprecedented growth in supply and few disruptions. This is not the normal rather the exception.

[dsula]

First, you must convince them that no matter what they can see, think, or feel, the world is collapsing everywhere else.

Ah Shorty. Back at your best I see.

You see, my small town is planning on building a HUGLY oversized new firestation in anticipation of growth over the next 50 years. I try to argue that maybe expecting that kind of growth you've seen in the past 20 years might not be what to expect in the next 50 years and it might be more prudant to actually build a smaller station. Because things probably won't be the same anymore. (Unless, of course, everybody is buying a Leaf. But then again in my pick-up driving farm town I don't see that quite happening.)

[vision-master]

Kick-backs?

[Pops]

Your town isn't typical.

Some 14 percent of American adults believe children these days will enjoy a better life than their parents did, an all-time low, a Rasmussen Reports poll finds.

The survey also reveals that 65 percent do not expect today’s children to be better off than their parents, while 21 percent aren't sure what to expect.

Meanwhile, more and more Americans are growing increasingly skeptical of the American dream in general.

Just about everyone agrees growth is about at an end, at least in private.

But no one wants a lecture. If I want to make a point I bitch about [insert whatever typical gripe here] just like the average guy who doesn't read sites like this obsessively would, then I say "I heard the other day on the radio [insert high-level factoid]."

Citing the radio is key because everyone knows that the truth comes from the AM Dial!

Of course some folks have a normalcy bias so strong that they just cna't see or admit danger. I'm reminded of the 21 year old who wore skater shorts and sandals to drive over the Sierra Nevadas in a January snow storm and was genuinely surprised to get a mild case of frostbite when he became stranded in the snow. I'm certain there would have been no way to convince him he should dress for the weather.

[Lore]

This is actually rather interesting. In comparison my little rural town, about 7 miles away from me, has all but dried up. All the former retail shops are gone, replaced by shoppers going to WalMart, Staples and Home Depot located another several miles down the road. They just got a bunch of federal and state money to revitalize the store fronts in hopes that if they build it they will come. Although, even as they are trying to lipstick the pig, more businesses have moved out. Most of the two block long downtown business district has now been taken over by insurance agencies and second hand thrift shops. The newest and only major anchor store left is a small Dollar General.

[vision-master]

Thank the city board for letting in WalMart.

[Lore]

Egyptian famines are biblical.

How Egypt was felled by famine - in 2180 BC
EVEN ancient Egypt's mighty pyramid builders were powerless in the face of the famine that helped bring down their civilisation around 2180 BC. Now evidence gleaned from mud deposited by the River Nile suggests that a shift in climate thousands of kilometres to the south was ultimately to blame - and the same or worse could happen today.
News Scientist

[vision-master]

Yes, climate change....... what the ancients have been trying to tell us is markers for these kinds of events come from the heavens.

[Pops]

P.S I didn't see you firestation post. Personally I don't have any problems with stuff like that, my little town has done the same with an influx of new exurb commuters, new schools, courthouse etc. Once the infrastructure is built they aren't going to reposes it and the bonds will either be paid or they won't. The option is letting the existing stuff just rust away.

P.P.S., just like Lore says, retail in our town has dwindled to whatever serves the interstate and maybe 8-10 local businesses on the business loop and really nothing left on the square. The thing is, if commutes become less common and business becomes more local we have at least kept our core services viable.

[pstarr]

I wouldn't worry about the futility of the construction. That is the least of your worries. You might want to consider how you (and your friends) will commandeer the structure post-peak when that stupid local government is bankrupt and no longer exists. Somebody has to own it.

The firestation will be a good strong building with the latest insulation, heavy walls/doors, excessive hardware, and lots of meat and muscle. If properly maintained (occasionally re-roofed, sealed, painted, etc.) will probably last several hundred years. At best post-peak the structure will we be re-purposed for some yet-to-be-imagined purpose (slaughterhouse, prison, hospital, bank?), or perhaps dissassembled for valuable materials for other also yet-to-be-imagined purposes. You are the recipient of the last of the inexpensive natural capital, ripped from other countries, dragged out of the ground, when energy, transport, oil and credit were available. That will not always be the case.

[vision-master]

Police Station?

[pstarr]

Police Station?

Or local NSA Station? Probably lots of structural opportunities for mounting heavy weaponry.

[dinopello]

Dsula, do you live in Greenwich, Connecticut? If so, then your neighbors are probaby right. Anyway, over the span of my life I expect some localities to prosper and peraps grow and others to decline. So, it depends on yur particular local circumstances. The ideal town in my opinion is one that is preparing for robustness in the face of many uncertainties but that nobody outside knows about.

[ian807]

I wish I had some good advice for you, but I don't think there is any. The USA is in the grip of normalcy bias and entertainment media. Most people don't have much bandwidth for anything else. Even if they did, how many of your neighbors could our would prepare?

Even in your small town, there will be a few people who are NOT clueless. If you haven't already, start getting to know them. Make what preparations you can. Review the lists on survivalblog.com.

At the moment, the proximate threats to civilization's supply chains are monetary collapse and/or energy collapse. Either could destroy the world's system of interdependent, just-in-time supply chains permanently. Keep an eye on those two issues and keep your aware neighbors informed.

Post collapse, you'll be sort of busy, but the major threats after that will be starvation, followed by radiation from failing nuclear reactors as more and more of them become unmaintainable and without diesel fuel for emergencies.

[pstarr]

I wish I had some good advice for you, but I don't think there is any. The USA is in the grip of normalcy bias and entertainment media. Most people don't have much bandwidth for anything else. Even if they did, how many of your neighbors could our would prepare? ...
Post collapse, you'll be sort of busy, but the major threats after that will be starvation, followed by radiation from failing nuclear reactors as more and more of them become unmaintainable and without diesel fuel for emergencies.

Yup. What he said.

Nice comprehensive summary, Ian.

[Ferretlover]

Stay on topic, please.

[SeaGypsy]

I have decided the 'normalcy bias' is established in childhood and almost never shifts. The trend with parents 'positive reinforcement' towards 'self esteem' and other newspeak psychological outcomes predisposing the possessor to 'success', along with the relatively extremely long period of stable economic growth; have lead to a mostly weak generation of thinkers. Though people who can remember the 1930's depression are becoming very rare, speaking with these if you have the chance, will reveal a much higher ratio of people with the capacity to grok systemic mortality. The other groups are sub-cultures where traumatic upbringing and neglect are the norm. Nice, happy, white bread communities just don't breed folks with what it takes anymore. The price we pay to live in paradise is to be surrounded by fools and mental weaklings.