Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
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MonteQuest wrote:Whatever grows in considerable bulk in a short time is ideal. The rest is organic chemistry.
"The numbers speak for themselves, but it's up to the market to interpret them," said Vincent Delisle, a strategist at Scotia Capital in Montreal. "Any time anyone says we're in a new era of oil prices, I feel the need to remind them that oil is a commodity and commodity prices are cyclical. We're in a mania environment for anything related to oil that lacks fundamental reasoning."
"We are in the mode where the fundamentals of supply and demand really don't drive the price," Lee Raymond, the chairman and chief executive of Exxon Mobil, the world's largest energy company, said at a meeting last week with analysts in New York. "Oil is a commodity, and history tells us that commodity prices never stay high forever."
"The higher oil prices go, the closer we get to bursting the bubble," Gheit said. "At some point, the circuit breaker will kick in, and the price will come down. I would not be surprised to see oil come back to $30."
It may take a while for supplies to catch up. The Saudis are expected to quadruple drilling, to 60 rigs, but that is not expected to lead to marked production increases for about three years, said David Pursell, a principal at Pickering Energy Partners, an energy investment firm in Houston.
Can we solve the problems of the future? Thomas Homer-Dixon tackles this question in a groundbreaking study of a world becoming too complex and too fast-paced to manage.
The challenges we face converge, intertwine, and often remain largely beyond our understanding. Most of us suspect that the "experts" don't really know what's going on and that as a species we've released forces that are neither managed nor manageable. This is the ingenuity gap, the critical gap between our need for ideas to solve complex problems and our actual supply of those ideas.
Poor countries are particularly vulnerable to ingenuity gaps, but our own rich countries are no longer immune, and we're all caught dangerously between a soaring requirement for ingenuity and an increasingly uncertain supply. As the gap widens, the result can be political disintegration and violent upheaval.
With riveting anecdotes and lucid argument, Thomas Homer-Dixon uses his ingenuity theory to suggest how we might approach these problems -- in our own lives, our thinking, our businesses, and our societies.
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