[AgentR11]

Interesting question rattling around twitter... Ceasefire doesn't start till Sunday; Kiev is shelling Donetsk right now; question is, should Russia/D&L go ahead and liquidate the Debelsteve pocket. I'd be very surprised if they didn't have the grads in place to do it. So question is... will they.

[americandream]

3. Ukraine retakes its border with Russia effectively leaving the people of Novorossyia trapped and separated from their "guarantor" Russia.

This one I disagree with. Ukraine's border guards aren't even a speed bump to Russian intervention, if it were called for. And if Kiev started shelling D&L again, Putin would have a free hand domestically to just obliterate the Kiev army.

At which point another EU or US brokered ceasefire would conveniently materalise. Happens everytime everywhere. The working man is being taken for a sucker.

[Withnail]

Translation of leaflets dropped by shell in Debatselvo Kessel.

[radon1]

Debaltsevo is Ukraine's largest railway junction and a key transportation link between Lugansk and Donetsk. It has already been heavily mined by the Ukie forces. Ideally, D&L would prefer to save it from destruction and would rather see the Ukie troops in the pocket peacefully surrendering.

[radon1]

http://en.voicesevas.ru/news/yugo-vosto ... 11-12.html

Video, English subtitles

Roundup of Novorossia for February 11-12
1. The situation in the DPR and LPR.
2. Kiev is no longer hiding mass desertion in the ranks of its army.
3. Poroshenko may soon leave the post of President of Ukraine.
4. The meeting of heads of "Norman Four" was completed.
5. Vladimir Putin answered questions of reporters in Minsk.
6. VR deprived Russian journalists of accreditation.
7. IMF chief Christine Lagarde said that the fund is ready to give Ukraine a loan amounting to 17.5 billion dollars.
8. "Gazprom" warned Ukraine for the umpteenth time.
9. Police detained a minibus carrying a large quantity of ammunition at a checkpoint near the town of Izyum.
10. Political agitation in Odessa reached a new level.

[AgentR11]

I've harped this since the beginning. The prize for Russia is the Crimea. Everything up till now has served that purpose; and now Crimea is so well defended, only the full force of the US military could stand a chance of recapturing it; and doing such a thing almost guarantees the use of nuclear weapons.

Thus. Crimea is a done deal, irrevocable. Ukraine will never again control it.

Oh, and today, Rosneft just flat out paid their due bonds; no refinance required or requested. Just wrote a dang check. Such an indicator of "tatters.."
http://rt.com/business/231707-rosneft-d ... 7-billion/

[Sixstrings]

Oh, and today, Rosneft just flat out paid their due bonds; no refinance required or requested. Just wrote a dang check. Such an indicator of "tatters.."

Russia has a very large rainy day fund it's been tapping. And it's sad they've had to do that, this is real money hard currency they've had in the bank, it's not like it's federal reserve magic banker money.

That fund will not last.

But the West does not really want to bankrupt Russia, we just want them to stop the war in Ukraine and leave it alone and not do this anywhere else! How hard is that to understand. Everyone else plays by the rules, nobody else annexes things, we love Russia but they can't keep doing this -- these are just the rules folks, I'm sorry, do you see America annexing Panama and random sh*t? No.

I can't post anymore Agent, or radon will report me. I've been doing well not posting much in this thread.

[radon1]

http://cassad-eng.livejournal.com/116325.html

The situation at the front by the evening of February 12th

Briefly on the situation at the front by the evening of February 12th.

1. Despite the talk of absence of the encirclement, the junta failed to unblock the M-103 road and capture Logvinovo.
...
2. Under Mariupol the junta "offensive" ended up being especially senseless and both sides returned to the previous situation when the postions of the sides are separated by a strip akin to a neutral strip.
...
3. Shelling of the cities didn't stop and we can be sure that during the remaining days until the possible cease-fire the junta will try to fire the maximal number of artillery and rocket munitions on Donbass cities.
...
4. Over the recent days the number of junta losses increased due to the encirclement, which is typical for pocket situations.
...

[AgentR11]

This is what a lot of western oriented writers are missing. ALMOST ALL of the dollar / euro denominated debt is held by companies; not the RF government. Yes, its a kleptocratic tangled web; but accounting wise, Rosneft is just Rosneft; and Bob Co is just Bob Co.

So lets take Bob Co for an example. Bob Co's a wheat exporter; he has revenue in Dollars and Euro for the most part; most of his expenses are in ruble, and some capital investment in Euros. If Bob Co can take his Euro revenue and pay off his Euro debt; sanctions have no effect. If Bob Co can NOT; Putin Inc gets to decide whether Bob Co is friend of Putin or not. Lets say Bob Co is more a Yeltsin fan; and Putin tells him to go drown himself. Well, after some struggles, Bob Co defaults.

What are the effects of Bob Co's default? Does it effect the RF's interest rates? Nope. RF doesn't borrow any dollars or Euros to speak of, and collects numerous taxes directly in Euros. No, Bob Co just goes into bankruptcy. Typical drill, sell assets, top of the food chain gets first nibble, blah blah. You know who top of the food chain is when a corporation goes belly up? The federal government of that country. Betcha Bob Co owes a bunch of taxes, no? In the end, Bob Co ceases to exist, the RF gets all the choice nibbles, and the Euro bond holders that were stupid enough to lend money to Bob Co get to rummage through the left overs hoping something can cover a bit of their losses.

Its the 'big error'. That Russian Federation rainy day fund is no such thing. That rainy day fund plus sanctions is how Putin gets to kill his adversaries and consolidate power.

But Rosneft? Just plain ole revenue; no rainy day fund required.

[radon1]

http://voicesevas.ru/news/ukraine/9830- ... henko.html

(edited)

Yarosh dumps President: we made a mistake by supporting the elections of Poroshenko!

While negotiations were held in Minsk, Yarosh, the leader of the [ultra-nationalist] Right Sector, quickly began dumping Poroshenko. Apparently, it is the Right Sector that is to become a "grave digger" of the acting President.

Yarosh, accused the President of betrayal, collaborationism, loss of Ukrainian territories, corruption, kickbacks and other mortal sins. Moreover, he openly threatened Poroshenko with a coup and predicted the end of the "evil-ruler" oligarchic Rada, thus providing a plan for a new overthrow: elimination of Poroshenko, "Reichstag put in fire", full-scale war throughout Ukraine.
...
This performance was made in a hospital bed in the midst of the negotiations of the "Normandy Quartet" in Minsk. It appears that he and his "supervisor" oligarch Kolomoisky are in a firm belief that "Minsk-2" will stand and ready to undermine Ukraine from within in order to destroy all the agreements.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... bliki.html

Hundreds of Donetsk civilians took to the meeting in honor of 97 years of Donetsk-Krivoy Rog Republic

Hundreds of the Donetsk Republic residents came out today at a rally in the center of Donetsk after 97 years of Donetsk-Krivoy Rog Republic (VDCS). The action took place at the Soviet square under the walls of the House of Government.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... -suda.html

(edited)

Ukraine embraces piracy and captures the Russian and foreign ships

Singaporean tanker gas carrier "Knebworth" was detained in the Illichivsk port. Next, Russian fishing trawler from Sevastopol "Cheremosh" was detained in the port of Berdyansk. The official explanation of the port authority - the "violator" vessels entered or were based in Crimea. According to the Kiev Government, this is a sufficient basis for piracy capture of ships.

[radon1]

Yes, its a kleptocratic tangled web; but accounting wise, Rosneft is just Rosneft; and Bob Co is just Bob Co.

Putin has been shown publicly reprimanding Sechin, CEO of Rosneft, face to face, for being non-sensitive to the "state interests". The reprimand was filmed specifically for the TV news and was repeatedly shown there. Putin did not dare to do any such thing ever before. Similar thing with the government and some other oligarchs.

He is apparently in a better position to control the oligarchy now. His "populist" policies seem to be paying off as far as his position of power is concerned, at least in the shorter term.

[radon1]

Provocation warning

http://vk.com/strelkov_info?w=wall-57424472_46245

(translation)

Yesterday 19:51 (local time)

12.02.15. Report of the Intelligence agency of the Lugansk army.

"According to intelligence reports of the Lugansk army, the Ukrainian military have planned provocation with numerous victims among the civilian population in the village of Stanitsa Luganska after 20:00, in order to disrupt the agreements reached in Minsk. Presumably, the provocation will involve the use of a special caliber missile fire similar to that occurred in Kramatorsk."

"Cease fire." Shelling of Lugansk this night:

http://youtu.be/5ip_7huoBBQ

Reportedly, the shelling repeated every 10-15 minutes. Preliminary, 7 wounded and 4 dead were reported in the city district.

http://fortruss.blogspot.ru/2015/02/thr ... it-on.html

Eduard Basurin, deputy corps commander of Ministry of Defense of Donetsk People's Republic: "A very big tragedy happened today, a tragedy for the entire Republic. At 20:30 an artillery shelling of the city began. As a result of which, there was a direct hit on a residential house, where there were three children: a one year old boy, a 6 year old girl, and a 12 year old girl. They all died on the spot.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/monde/2015/0 ... -l-est.php

Ukraine : non, Poutine ne veut pas reconquérir l'Europe de l'Est

http://fortruss.blogspot.it/2015/02/por ... -thee.html

Despite the fact that they had to advance practically in the open, in full view of the heights held by the militia, under crossfire, they rushed forward with exceptional persistence, ignoring the losses, skillfully using terrain folds and maintaining tactical order.

According to intelligence, these were shock battalions, which the Ukrainian command was saving for a decisive offensive. These battalions have completed a full course of study under the guidance of American and Polish instructors on Yavorovsky base and were recently covertly relocated to the area of the ATO.

But despite the surprise attack, and its strength, the Ukrainian storm-troopers failed to break through the defense of the militia. Having suffered huge losses at the stage of advance and deployment, the attackers failed to break into Logvinovo and the attack chocked on the approaches to the village. The last two tanks were burned just a few hundred meters from the positions of the militia.
...
According to this information, in the last hours of the war the Ukrainian artillery should cause the most massive for this entire campaign strike on cities and towns of Donetsk and Lugansk Republics. As mentioned on one of the forums: "Leaving, loudly slamming the door, so that this bang will be remembered in each separatist family, in each of their homes!"

[radon1]

http://fortruss.blogspot.it/2015/02/min ... an-17.html

Minsk-2 is over before it began: 17 volunteer battalions refuse to obey Kiev

Defense Minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic Vladimir Kononov said that 17 territorial battalions involved in the fighting in the South-East of Ukraine pulled out of control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and went under the control of the Right Sector.
...

"Right Sector" - is a Ukrainian union of radical nationalist organizations.

http://fortruss.blogspot.it/2015/02/ukr ... tural.html

Ukraine, having lost its industry, is now also losing agriculture: Ukrainian Economist.

The agriculture of a country once considered the Soviet Union’s granary is now facing the heaviest crisis since independence.

Ukraine is risking a totally failed sowing season for the first time since it gained independence, since the agricultural sector is facing many unresolved problems, argues Ukrainian economist Aleksandr Koltunovich.

Video, [eng subs] Poroshenko reveals true nature of the ceasefire for Ukraine:

http://youtu.be/dAVFhPu5fio

Minsk, a reported choked up when trying to ask Poroshenko:

http://youtu.be/1aizm-bFJIQ?t=11s

[radon1]

http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2 ... ussia.html

The Czech Republic: Doomed without Russia

Zeman virtually admitted that there was a group of countries within the European Union who were against the anti-Russian sanctions, and declared that with regard to relations between the West and Russia, priority should be given to trade and economic cooperation rather than political confrontation.

According to Miloš Zeman, the European Union has a year at most to lift the sanctions against Russia. Otherwise, EU members can expect not just huge, but irreparable losses. Among other things, Czech businesses will be unable to re-establish their positions on the Russian market and will be driven out by companies from other countries, and the first companies will be American. Zeman believes that this has happened before in the history of his country; when the Czech Republic was still part of Czechoslovakia, the country refused to cooperate with Russia in the field of military technology. As a result, the country lost its business reputation and its share of the market – both the Russian market and the global market. «Something similar once happened with the defence industry. Now, as the Czech president, I am trying to prevent it», said Miloš Zeman.

In present conditions, the Czech Republic could once again find itself facing a similar situation, and the entire structure of Czech imports would be at risk. According to independent sources, the current volume of Czech imports from Russia amounts to USD 8 billion, which is comparable with the volume of Czech exports to Russia. The sustainable growth rate of corresponding figures observed since 2009, that is to say the beginning of the global economic crisis, is particularly important. According to the Federal Customs Service of Russia, trade between Russia and the Czech Republic in 2009 amounted to USD 6.8 billion, in 2010 it was USD 8.4 billion, in 2011 – USD 9.9 billion, and in 2012 – USD 10.5 billion.

Losses in trade with Russia could be irreparable for the Czech Republic, especially bearing in mind the country’s unenviable economic situation at present. In terms of its current balance of payments, for example, the Czech Republic is 160th in the world; in 2013, the country had a negative balance of USD 3.27 billion. According to this indicator, the Czech Republic is trailing behind Ethiopia, Equatorial Guinea, Thailand, and Lebanon, and is only slightly ahead of Yemen and Syria, which are both racked by internal conflict.

The Czech Republic, along with its neighbours Slovakia and Hungary, are against supplying weapons to the Kiev regime.

Brussels is indeed absorbed in playing its anti-Russian games, even if the Czech Republic, remembering the events of 1968, is siding with Russia.

The Czech Republic has already suffered its own tragic experience of what a collusion between Nazis and the democratic West actually is. The Czech Republic also has firsthand experience of the benefits of trade and economic cooperation with Moscow. Russia, writes the Czech political scientist Oskar Krejčí, will be able to replace the EU market more quickly and effectively than the EU will be able to replace the Russian market.

Meeting in Athens, Greece, against the war in Donbass

http://youtu.be/Tgp7ODgxHRw?t=5s

DPR defense ministry sitrep 12/02/15 (English subtitles)
Ukrainian forces in Debaltsevo uniformed about their encirclement

http://youtu.be/qNI6iOS9wNo?t=5s

Fresh explosion mini-mushroom in Debaltsevo

http://youtu.be/UX-bfF67L2M

[radon1]

http://tass.ru/en/world/777430

Kiev's ex-deputy chief of paramilitary battalion turned lawmaker vows to defy Minsk deal

KIEV, February 13. /TASS/. A former deputy commander of the Azov paramilitary battalion, which remains beyond the control of the central command in Kiev, currently holding a seat in the Ukrainian parliament has vowed to defy the Minsk Accords.

Igor Moseichuk said on his page in Facebook he would exert the maximum efforts to upset the implementation of these agreements in parliament.

"That’s an act of treason. Betrayal of national interests. This is the sole way of describing the text regarding the implementation of the Minsk Accords that Leonid Kuchma signed with the Donetsk and Luhansk republics on behalf of Ukraine," says the radically-minded legislator.

http://freebeacon.com/national-security ... paratists/

Updated: Provenance of Photos Showing Atrocities Questioned

Inhofe Criticizes Ukrainian Group for Providing Misleading Photos

Several images of the Russian convoys appear to have been taken in 2008, during Russia’s conflict with Georgia.

UPDATE 7:10 P.M.: Sen. Inhofe said in a statement: “The Ukrainian parliament members who gave us these photos in print form as if it came directly from a camera really did themselves a disservice. We felt confident to release these photos because the images match the reporting of what is going on in the region. I was furious to learn one of the photos provided now appears to be falsified from an AP photo taken in 2008.

[AgentR11]

West's idea of Free Speech. Protest against something that serves our interests, you go to jail, do not pass go, do not collect $200?

http://www.unian.net/society/1041558-ge ... atsii.html

[Withnail]

Another Ukrainian tank near Debatselvo has new owners.

[AgentR11]

Linky of interest:
http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/al ... nsk-2.html
I know certain people hate anything that doesn't come from cnn and fox, or at least rferl (hey, you could call that referral.. cute); but this is really a thoughtful look at the position Kiev has gotten itself into.

re Poroshenko
"You have to save face, since you are not independent and don’t have any genuine power. Your competitor in Dnepropetrovsk already opened a parallel General Staff, and the efforts to disperse the Aidar failed completely. You even destroyed the coalition when you tried to make your friend/godfather the Prosecutor General."

I almost feel sorry for the moron. Just a business guy trying to advance his interests; but he's gotten in way over his head, and getting eaten alive by everyone around him, from both sides.

[americandream]

West's idea of Free Speech. Protest against something that serves our interests, you go to jail, do not pass go, do not collect $200?

http://www.unian.net/society/1041558-ge ... atsii.html

I like your objectivity, agent. Keep it up.

[radon1]

After putting reasonable effort and time into attempts to keep this thread consistent with the policies specified in the opening post, I have to declare now that these attempts have failed. The thread has been finally overrun by the local special-purpose shill/troll earlier in the thread, and further maintenance of this thread in its originally intended form is therefore meaningless.

I would therefore be grateful if the users would refrain from posting to this thread, and if the moderators would close this thread from further postings.

I am grateful to the posters who contributed to this thread in good faith, and to the moderators who have dealt with the issues in this thread.

Would finally point out couple points that the mini-world of this thread illuminates (however petty and laughable they are):

- you are not left alone even if you request to be left alone, sounds familiar?

- to those who like to expatiate upon "freedom of speech" or "rule of law": they can be in place, but you may just have no access to them. And in fact, you will not have this access, despite all the happy declarations to the contrary. Can be seen even at this petty level.