Our analysis of shale gas well decline trends indicates that the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per well is approximately one-half of the values commonly presented by operators. The average EUR per well for the most active operators is 1.3 Bcf in the Barnett, 1.1 Bcf in the Fayetteville, and 3.0 Bcf in the Haynesville shale gas plays.
The primary difference between our analysis and the typical well profile proposed by operators is that we observe predominantly exponential (weak to moderate hyperbolic) decline in most of the individual well decline trends, rather than steadily flattening hyperbolic decline. For the Barnett and Fayetteville shale plays, we identify a two-stage exponential decline based on decline curve analysis (DCA) of individual wells; for the Haynesville Shale we observe predominantly exponential decline for individual wells.
In 5 years Congress will shamefully trot out the executives of these companies, putting on a show for the public as they publicly condemn them for what turned out to be a giant investment scam. However, none of them will be willing to admit they were warned when ahead of time by the likes of Arthur Berman, The New York Times, The Rolling Stone, and other sources. It will all play out just like every other scandal we have seen over the past 13 years, from the dot com bubble to the housing boom to the Madoff Ponzi Scheme, etc.
Obviously the move to oil is still a big story. But the NG hype is dying.Natural Gas Rig Count: The natural gas rig count decreased for the seventeenth time in 20 weeks to 452 (a drop of 21 rigs from the previous week). As per the most recent report, the number of gas-directed rigs is at their lowest level since July 9, 1999 and is down 52% from its 2011 peak of 936, reached during mid-October.
The current natural gas rig count remains 72% below its all-time high of 1,606 reached in late summer 2008. In the year-ago period, there were 892 active natural gas rigs.