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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Thu 02 Nov 2017, 16:36:41

Cog wrote:Yes because government solutions always work much better than market solutions.

They have in Norway
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 02 Nov 2017, 16:36:57

KaiserJeep wrote:The Libertarian in me would prefer that we do this with incentives (the carrot) rather than mandates (the stick). But incentives are not working, people are set in their ways, even some of the people in this thread.

What incentives aren't working? The obvious incentive to steer people away from burning lots of gasoline, without mandating it would be a big CO2 tax. Hell, we can't even pass a tiny CO2 tax. The federal tax incentives to buy Plug in Hybrids and BEV's rapidly fade away, so they're not enough. The state and local incentives are few and far between.

I'd prefer incentives too, but what we have now seems to be mostly ignoring the problem, so the people in power get reliably re-elected.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Thu 02 Nov 2017, 16:49:02

KaiserJeep wrote:
Wrong about that one. A Tesla Supercharger tops off a Tesla automobile from 20% to 80% capacity in 30 minutes, adding 170 miles range. If you have 75 minutes, it provides a tapering charge to 100% capacity.

30 minutes is still a long time to be waiting around unless they have unused chargers in the shopping centre carpark (which they dont)
KaiserJeep wrote:Nor is your stated 1.5 hours each way outside the capacity of a modern EV. The Tesla Model S and Model 3 offer 310 miles range and the Tesla Model X SUV is good for 289 miles. All three would provide 3 hour round trips, complete with hills and stop lights while carrying cargo. The Chevy Bolt would do the same with 238 miles range, with less reserve. Lesser vehicles like the Nissan Leaf (or a half-dozen down-size competitors) would require a quick topoff charge to 80% between the two halves of the trip.

Then it comes down to price, availability and convenience.
Which makes none of them an option in Australia

The bigger picture for me is cost of vehicle v savings.
Spending silly money to save a few hundred a year doesnt add up for me and my minimal driving.
But a second hand Honda Hybrid in a few years to replace my current ICE Honda makes sense as its going to need replacing and I might as well get the most efficient I can get for minimal dollars.
Ive never bought a new car or a new house in my life its a total waste of money.
The new premium disappears as soon as the money changes hand
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 02 Nov 2017, 18:05:42

AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
The big perhaps insurmountable problem is the need to double the grid capacity and generating capacity to provide the mega watt hours of electricity needed.


Why do you consider only grid based capacity? How about small scale distributed capacity?

The actual numbers of KWHs needed to drive the average USA car the average miles being driven. It amounts to 100 percent of our current grid capacity and production. Ain't nothin small scale about it if you are talking a complete switch over to EVs.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 02 Nov 2017, 18:25:24

Outcast_Searcher wrote:-snip-
What incentives aren't working? The obvious incentive to steer people away from burning lots of gasoline, without mandating it would be a big CO2 tax. Hell, we can't even pass a tiny CO2 tax. The federal tax incentives to buy Plug in Hybrids and BEV's rapidly fade away, so they're not enough. The state and local incentives are few and far between.

I'd prefer incentives too, but what we have now seems to be mostly ignoring the problem, so the people in power get reliably re-elected.


The problem is that the BEV technology is here, but the interest in BEVs is not. Nor is it a chicken-and-egg problem with chargers, everybody's garage is the charger they should be using most.

OTOH, a carbon tax would not incent the move to EVs. With the majority of grid power generated by coal and natural gas, the grid would be taxed heavily. Not to mention that states are now leveling EV fees to compensate for the lack of fuel taxes.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 02 Nov 2017, 18:35:34

Outcast_Searcher wrote:The federal tax incentives to buy Plug in Hybrids and BEV's rapidly fade away


Rapidly indeed.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-t ... SKBN1D2282

I really don't understand why some people here who supposedly care so much about peak-oil can also be staunch republicans. It's either extreme cognitive dissonance or simply preferring the collective suffering of doom to reasonable mitigation.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 02 Nov 2017, 18:49:56

asg70 wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:The federal tax incentives to buy Plug in Hybrids and BEV's rapidly fade away


Rapidly indeed.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-t ... SKBN1D2282

I really don't understand why some people here who supposedly care so much about peak-oil can also be staunch republicans. It's either extreme cognitive dissonance or simply preferring the collective suffering of doom to reasonable mitigation.
I know of no "reasonable mitigation" that is being proposed by the Democrats that has a chance of working.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby GHung » Thu 02 Nov 2017, 19:01:19

asg70 wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:The federal tax incentives to buy Plug in Hybrids and BEV's rapidly fade away


Rapidly indeed.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-t ... SKBN1D2282

I really don't understand why some people here who supposedly care so much about peak-oil can also be staunch republicans. It's either extreme cognitive dissonance or simply preferring the collective suffering of doom to reasonable mitigation.


If these tax cuts become law, you're going to see a lot of programs cut. Electric vehicle credit? Think Medicaid, Medicare, SNAP, all other social programs.....
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 02 Nov 2017, 21:55:18

KaiserJeep wrote:The problem is that the BEV technology is here, but the interest in BEVs is not. Nor is it a chicken-and-egg problem with chargers, everybody's garage is the charger they should be using most.

OTOH, a carbon tax would not incent the move to EVs. With the majority of grid power generated by coal and natural gas, the grid would be taxed heavily. Not to mention that states are now leveling EV fees to compensate for the lack of fuel taxes.

I hear you on all of that, but a significant CO2 tax would, it seems to me, strongly incent the move toward rooftop solar and battery backup / time shifting. Folks like Baha are proving that the technology is viable. But for folks like me who want a turn-key operation, it is expensive.

But a big CO2 tax would completely change the math over 20 years so suddenly it wouldn't look way overpriced to get the solar. At that point, charging a BEV or a PHEV is an obvious way to save money and leverage that solar investment.

The whole idea is to try to get people to go beyond burning mostly coal or NG to power their EV's, or we're not buying much re CO2 mitigation.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 02 Nov 2017, 22:00:21

GHung wrote:If these tax cuts become law, you're going to see a lot of programs cut. Electric vehicle credit? Think Medicaid, Medicare, SNAP, all other social programs.....

Nonsense. More doom without substance.

Look, Obama presided over a $9 trillion increase in the federal debt. Now how many minor programs (net) were cut, much less major untouchable things like Medicare? My answer is basically, zero.

I understand you might not LIKE the tax cuts. (I don't like net tax cuts until we've not only balanced the budget, but have paid off most of the debt and are on a clear path to getting it ALL paid off in a decade -- fat chance of that).

But adding one sixth of what Obama added over the next decade is NOT anything approaching doom -- it's just stupid and short-sighted. Which is what most of the clowns on Capitol Hill are on BOTH sides of the aisle -- no matter how much they CLAIM they don't like deficits (until it comes to protecting the programs they favor, at all costs).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby jawagord » Fri 03 Nov 2017, 08:32:32

asg70 wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:The federal tax incentives to buy Plug in Hybrids and BEV's rapidly fade away


Rapidly indeed.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-t ... SKBN1D2282

I really don't understand why some people here who supposedly care so much about peak-oil can also be staunch republicans. It's either extreme cognitive dissonance or simply preferring the collective suffering of doom to reasonable mitigation.


I don't think these republicans are concerned with peak oil. But there is cognitive dissonance here for anyone who thinks buying a new car of any type is good for the environment. Production of vehicles is one of the worst things for the planet and purchasing a new vehicle is probably the single worst thing a person can do to cause damage to the planet's environment, assuming damage to the planet is the concern? EV's are no better than ICE vehicles in this regard, how about we stop subsidizing car companies (and plane companies) period?

http://www.dw.com/en/how-eco-friendly-a ... a-19441437
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 03 Nov 2017, 08:33:45

vtsnowedin wrote:I know of no "reasonable mitigation" that is being proposed by the Democrats that has a chance of working.


And that, apparently, is the go-to retort. If you think there should be reasonable mitigation why not actually hold your party accountable rather than just finger-pointing? The tribalism and displacement of blame has no end even if this forum stays up while we're busy subsisting on cockroaches and long-pork.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 03 Nov 2017, 09:37:49

asg70 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:I know of no "reasonable mitigation" that is being proposed by the Democrats that has a chance of working.


And that, apparently, is the go-to retort. If you think there should be reasonable mitigation why not actually hold your party accountable rather than just finger-pointing? The tribalism and displacement of blame has no end even if this forum stays up while we're busy subsisting on cockroaches and long-pork.

You are missing the point that there is no reasonable and effective mitigation that anyone can be for. All suggested policies are unworkable and ineffective on a world scale and are just political taking points intended to win votes and nothing more.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 03 Nov 2017, 09:51:26

vtsnowedin wrote:You are missing the point that there is no reasonable and effective mitigation that anyone can be for.


Which is yet another excuse to justify doing nothing. The Koch brothers thank you for your fatalism. See a pattern here?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 03 Nov 2017, 12:48:22

vtsnowedin wrote:You are missing the point that there is no reasonable and effective mitigation that anyone can be for.

I respectfully disagree with that.

There is no reasonable and effective mitigation that first world politicians or their constituents are generally willing to take. The most common reasons I see cited are:

1). That would be inconvenient. (Generally financially, or in forcing people to have somewhat lower standards of living (stuff piled in the garage, basement, attic, etc) in the short to medium term).

2). No solution is perfect. (As though that means we should do nothing).

3). Solution X is unaffordable because I don't like some political ramification of it -- or it doesn't meet all my criteria. (i.e. it's imperfect for some specific reason).

I still say a BIG CO2 tax would go a long way toward mitigation over time.

Anyone think a dollar a pound CO2 AGW tax wouldn't force a LOT of behavior change?

And I say it's not unworkable if:

1). It's phased in over time, like a decade or two.
2). There are some sort of tax credits to prevent the poor from disaster. In fact, the right tax credit scheme could let truly poor people who drastically reduce carbon consumption to end up net financial beneficiaries.
3). A lot of that is compensated for with lower income taxes for the poor (who already net, pay negative income tax rates in the US), the lower middle class (who basically pay little or no income taxes) and especially the upper middle class (who pay a moderate amount of income taxes).

The key thing is a big incentive would push people into far more solar, wind, geothermal, EV's, PHEV's, less waste, efficient furnaces and A/C, weatherproofing, and simply being CAREFUL and FRUGAL with the hydrocarbons that they burn -- far faster than any scheme I can imagine being implemented. Certainly far faster than anything being timidly contemplated (or can kicking like the Paris Climate accords).

But no, virtually no one wants to do something like that, according to the reactions I get. I get told it's unworkable due to some variation of the three I gave above.

And so here we sit, cooking ourselves and future generations. But that doesn't mean we can't buy time for a fighting chance -- just that we can't be bothered as a society to do so.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 03 Nov 2017, 13:16:56

You're all headed to prison camps in 3 years unless you can master The Quantum in your head without slogging along at a snails pace with experimental plodding, admit it. Otherwise you are just brainless cattle. The only alternative is The Hydrogen Economy powered by mythical fusion reactors that consume only the common isotope of hydrogen in seawater. Nothing else is possible except fighting over oil dregs as unveiled by this book:

Image

Introduction: the problem of energy
Part I Oil dregs
1. Oil and the crash of 2007-8
2. The century of oil
3. Consuming miles
4. Carbon capital
5. Peaking
6. The Chinese century?
7. The curse of oil
Part II Social futures
8. Magic bullet future
9. Digital lives
10. Resource fights
11. Low carbon society
12. After easy oil
There is no escaping The Oil Apocalypse and there will be no survivors.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 04 Nov 2017, 01:54:28

StarvingLion wrote:Image

The book was published in early 2013. I glanced through some of it on Amazon -- typical doomer nonsense, like shipping oil to China will be a problem due to ships "falling apart", resource fights, etc.

Bad time to be predicting fighting over the dregs 18 months before a huge multi-year glut, and still going.

Be sure and get back to us when there is an actual problem getting affordable oil. Meanwhile, every year that doesn't happen, the green energy markets and technology develop and support for them (like EV charging) is further built out.

If there's less oil and it forces the price up, incenting more green energy, that's a GOOD things which hapless politicians won't make happen via a CO2 tax.

...

But by all means, let's pretend we'll all be in prison camps within 3 years, since FUD is fun to spread. Get a life.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 04 Nov 2017, 09:13:51

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
I still say a BIG CO2 tax would go a long way toward mitigation over time.

Anyone think a dollar a pound CO2 AGW tax wouldn't force a LOT of behavior change?

.
How are you going to impose that tax on China and India?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 04 Nov 2017, 09:36:49

vtsnowedin wrote: How are you going to impose that tax on China and India?


You don't. They do it on their own. This whole Mexican standoff of "you first" is just an excuse to do nothing.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Unread postby Cog » Sat 04 Nov 2017, 10:04:08

China and India are going to impose carbon taxes on themselves to put themselves at a competitive disadvantage? I'll have a Coke and wait to see that event happen.
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