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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 17 Jan 2017, 13:30:41

Revi, I don't know about the country as a whole, but in Southern Illinois where I lived, there was some diesel machinery, but a lot more gasoline powered machinery, which was cheaper to acquire. The "hot ticket" agricultural fuel was LPG, because it was not burdened by the road taxes that were applied to gasoline and diesel fuels.

The problem with EVs is lack of consumer acceptance. They sold 156,000 EVs and PHEVs in 2016, a 37% increase over 2015. However, that is still less than 1% of the 17 Million cars and light trucks and SUVs sold with ICEs. Even that 1% is mostly PHEVs which still burn petroleum fuels.

The impact of EVs will be noticeable at 10% of total vehicle sales, and "significant" at 20%. We need about 2500% in EV growth over say a decade to allow for the infrastructure changes such as the widespread buildout of Level 3 chargers.

But note that even at 10% of sales, the EVs will be utilizing ALL of the excess off-peak generating capacity of our existing electrical grid. To grow above 10%, we need a grid upgrade, including both the distribution system and new power plants.

So be careful - don't assume that the present situation applies in the future when EVs are more popular, because it won't. The Federal and State and Local governments have been subsidizing EVs and chargers for decades - that might change very suddenly with Donald Trump as POTUS.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby eclipse » Wed 18 Jan 2017, 03:51:22

Hi KaiserJeep,
NREL disagrees with you on the EV's. Why is that?

While we agreed in the last post that synthetic diesel will require a lot of extra energy to produce, what we didn't agree on is why it matters? The cost of the new nuclear power plants is *already* included in the price of the synthetic diesel. This particular model involves drawing CO2 out of seawater and mixing it with hydrogen to make all the synthetic diesel we could want, at a price. The power to do this is factored in. As peak oil and / or climate laws begin to scale down the oil, new nukes scale up as the synthetic diesel economy rises. It's built into the cost. I was stressing about how many extra nukes this would require, but then after chatting with the guys at the end of this blog post, it's obvious! Why stress? The diesel economy comes with them. "Batteries not included" is simply not the case here. Nukes are included.
https://bravenewclimate.com/2013/01/16/ ... -seawater/
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 18 Jan 2017, 04:54:49

You linked me to an article on Carbon Capture from Seawater (CCS). It is one promising lead for producing synthetic fuels.

That has little to do with EVs or any other topic we have discussed.

Here's a litmus test for you with synthetic fuels: Check with all the retail fuel sellers in your area and see who is selling that fuel. If the answer is nobody, it's likely not in production yet. Here in Silicon valley, we can buy biodiesel produced from used food oils - fryer greases. There are no other alternatives to petroleum diesel fuels. If you are interested in the topic, please start another thread, this one is about EVs.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 18 Jan 2017, 15:12:26

The screen on the other side of the charging station, he noted, showed an ad offering two hours of free charging, courtesy of the new 2017 Chevrolet Bolt EV, GM's 238-mile electric hatchback.

The Bolt EV ad certainly makes sense, targeting either existing drivers of plug-in cars using the station or those interested enough to pay attention to the ads on the pedestal.

As for the Mirai ad, no doubt Toyota's agency felt that electric-car drivers would be a more likely audience for an advanced-tech and zero-emission vehicle than your average large SUV drivers parked in the store's main lot.

And in a bit of counter-programming, the Mirai ad contains the line, "Refills in 5 minutes or less."

That's presumably targeted at the electric-car driver accustomed to using the 240-Volt Level 2 charging offered at most stations in store parking lots.

Those charging sites can add 20 or 25 miles of range per hour, but certainly can't recharge the complete battery in the Mirai's claimed 5 minutes.

Electric-car owners, of course, will point out that since most plug-in cars are recharged at home overnight, that charging rate isn't necessarily an issue for them.


http://www.greencarreports.com/news/110 ... ng-station
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 18 Jan 2017, 16:38:35

Tanada, the EV Chargers that I have seen in service stations and the like are high power Level 3 chargers - those can top off most EV's in about 30 minutes.

Level 2 chargers are found in homes and workplaces - and restaurants here in Silly Valley.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 18 Jan 2017, 18:24:42

KaiserJeep wrote:Tanada, the EV Chargers that I have seen in service stations and the like are high power Level 3 chargers - those can top off most EV's in about 30 minutes.

Level 2 chargers are found in homes and workplaces - and restaurants here in Silly Valley.


They have a pair of level 2 chargers in the municipke lot in Bowling Green home of BGSU. You can charge while you shop or go to dinner, but all the times I have parked there there were never two cars charging and often there are none, but if you park an ICE in those two spots you get a ticket.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 18 Jan 2017, 21:19:27

KaiserJeep wrote:Revi, I don't know about the country as a whole, but in Southern Illinois where I lived, there was some diesel machinery, but a lot more gasoline powered machinery, which was cheaper to acquire. The "hot ticket" agricultural fuel was LPG, because it was not burdened by the road taxes that were applied to gasoline and diesel fuels.
They stopped making gasoline powered farm machinery back in the 70"s. they make diesel tractors as small as 14.5 HP today and if your "tractor" runs on gas what you really have is a glorified lawn mower. Oh and off road diesel to run your farm tractor or run through your house furnace isn't taxed.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 18 Jan 2017, 23:25:23

I believe what you say. But I don't know any corporate farmers with machinery newer than the 70's, either.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 19 Jan 2017, 04:23:38

KaiserJeep wrote:I believe what you say. But I don't know any corporate farmers with machinery newer than the 70's, either.

I don't know any "corporate farmers" but the family farmers big and small I know have known the advantage diesel has over gas sense the sixties and have been buying diesel as their older tractors wore out. Hobbiest and collectors still love their old Ford 9Ns and Farmall Cubs but real day to day productive work is done by diesel.
Back to EVs . Somewhere in one of these threads I proposed a battery powered tractor that had quick change battery packs to allow it to work continuously during planting and harvest seasons. You could have a power drop and charger at the power pole on one end of the field with one or more packs being charged while the tractor used the one it had on. For conventional towed behind equipment I envision a long pack the tractor straddles and drives over and picks up hydraulically much like the quick attach mower decks they now make. There would have to be an umbilical cord to power the tractor from one battery to the next one so you would need to park them side by side. The batteries could weigh a couple of tons and act as ballast for the tractor. Such a set up would keep agriculture working as long as there was grid power available from any source and of course all the batteries would get topped off each night with off peak power so would act as storage for intermittent wind power.
Any thoughts?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 19 Jan 2017, 09:16:33

vtsnowedin wrote:
KaiserJeep wrote:I believe what you say. But I don't know any corporate farmers with machinery newer than the 70's, either.

I don't know any "corporate farmers" but the family farmers big and small I know have known the advantage diesel has over gas sense the sixties and have been buying diesel as their older tractors wore out. Hobbiest and collectors still love their old Ford 9Ns and Farmall Cubs but real day to day productive work is done by diesel.
Back to EVs . Somewhere in one of these threads I proposed a battery powered tractor that had quick change battery packs to allow it to work continuously during planting and harvest seasons. You could have a power drop and charger at the power pole on one end of the field with one or more packs being charged while the tractor used the one it had on. For conventional towed behind equipment I envision a long pack the tractor straddles and drives over and picks up hydraulically much like the quick attach mower decks they now make. There would have to be an umbilical cord to power the tractor from one battery to the next one so you would need to park them side by side. The batteries could weigh a couple of tons and act as ballast for the tractor. Such a set up would keep agriculture working as long as there was grid power available from any source and of course all the batteries would get topped off each night with off peak power so would act as storage for intermittent wind power.
Any thoughts?


You could always go back to the remote cable power system used in this video with electric overhead power feeding the motor instead of steam. Not the most convenient system, but a whole lot better than following the south end of a north bound mule team.

https://youtu.be/Wc0QNh0P_0k

https://youtu.be/FWhMF7diOxs
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby GHung » Thu 19 Jan 2017, 10:48:26

KaiserJeep wrote:I believe what you say. But I don't know any corporate farmers with machinery newer than the 70's, either.


Maybe I'm misunderstanding your point, but corporate farmers I know are constantly updating their equipment: https://www.aem.org/AEM/media/docs/Stat ... 2-USAG.pdf

They have to to stay competitive, especially large scale operations. Newer tractors and combines are more efficient, utilize GPS and computers to extract the most from every acre, and provide essential tax breaks.

Maybe you don't know any corporate farmers.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 19 Jan 2017, 11:38:11

Tanada wrote:You could always go back to the remote cable power system used in this video with electric overhead power feeding the motor instead of steam. Not the most convenient system, but a whole lot better than following the south end of a north bound mule team.


Well having followed teams of draft horses years ago I choose not to go back to them. :P I think we can come up with something much better then those steam driven plowing systems and they would not work when it came time to harvest the grain anyway. I've done some back of the envelope calculations. Existing lead acid forklift batteries weighing 4000 lbs are available and hold 35KWHs of electricity. Compared to a 55 Horse power tractor at full load they would last about one hour per charge. Using the technology in a Nissan leaf a 2000Kg LI battery could hold about 256KWHs and last 6.9 hours per charge. It would also cost about $120,000 per battery but that price per KWH is dropping rapidly.
With diesel tractors bigger is always better in terms of work accomplished per unit of fuel burned. Perhaps with battery powered tractors that will not be the case and smaller tractor with say a 1000Kg battery ,125KWH capacity about 20 HP could get more work done at less total cost per unit.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 19 Jan 2017, 14:40:37

You could always go with an electric cable and reel system:

P&H Cable Reel
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 19 Jan 2017, 15:53:03

My direct knowledge of farming is 36 years out of date, which is the last time I lived in the MidWest. The mortgage rates were 12% and whatever farm machinery was cheapest was purchased, which meant gasoline-powered, and if you could afford it, a propane unit. I am sure that members with more recent knowledge are accurate, and that the huge diesel tractors and combines and other machinery are the most efficient, and only affordable to a big business, not a family farm.

In the debate about electrical farm machinery to come, I think that replacing those huge machines with just as huge electrical machines is the wrong concept. The cities will not die for lack of rich residents like Donald Trump or his ilk, the cities will die because the lower and lower-middle class workers cannot afford to eat and commute to the cities as they do today.

Anybody who is like Donald Trump, and can afford to have his food and his transport costs do a 10X escalation, will stay in an urban environment as long as possible. Here in Silicon Valley we are served by immigrant labor who commute from outside the valley, just as every major city has a workforce of commuters who don't actually live there.

Food costs will also escalate by 10X along with petroleum fuels. Since the average American spends 6% of income on food, he still gets to eat when that goes to 60%. He gives up everything else - the car, the HDTV, the clothes, and finally the house - only then he begins to starve. In this we are luckier than at least 95% of all humans. They will starve when food costs do a 10X - most exist today on the cusp between mere malnutrition and starvation, there is no disposable income margin for their lifestyle as there is with ours.

Cities with only wealthy residents will simply die. This will not happen overnight, it will take decades. I remember the 1960s when gasoline was $0.25/g and cities were good places to live and the poverty was mostly rural. Today with $3.00/g gasoline, the cities are rotting from within and the most extreme poverty is urban. I saw St. Louis, New Orleans, and Detroit dying with my own eyes. The message is, if you look, you will see that the cities have begun to perish, and their death is noticeably nearer with each decade that passes.

When you are forced to spend 60% of your income for food, you will eat less, and you will live closer to the food you eat, to minimize the transport costs added to that food. Very probably you will have a garden and some chickens or other food critters. It is a time-honored way of surviving in tough times.

When gasoline is $30/g, EVs will make a lot more sense than they do today. Farming will be a mixture of large machines and the electrical machinery I see being most profitable are those machines which can perform the same tasks we import Mexicans for today - hand cultivation, planting, and harvesting. A lithium battery powered robot need not be large or expensive - and one man and ten such robots can do the work of ten men, and as the technology improves, a hundred men. The cities will be crumbling around the edges, and even the Donald Trumps of the world will be hurting under the tax burden that keeps a city like NYC from dying outright.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 19 Jan 2017, 16:45:58

There is a lot of truth in your post KJ.
I was not talking about replacing the ultra large tractors of the corn and wheat belts with equal sized EVs as I can't see the math working out for that. I was thinking more in line with a replacement for my own tractor which will be quite competitive when oil becomes scarce.
Image
If food prices even double in the USA I will start growing most of my own and might have some to sell. Right now I can't compete with the corn belt and irrigated California.
My tractor was assembled in India where it is a big seller. Both India and China use a lot of smaller tractors and equipment that isn't even for sale here. I expect that will change as fuel gets expensive as even my 45HP tractor uses two to three gallons of fuel per hour.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Revi » Thu 19 Jan 2017, 20:55:25

Here's a friend's solar tractor at work:
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby GHung » Fri 20 Jan 2017, 10:05:22

Our tractor is 35 hp and is very fuel-frugal. It runs well on B-100 biodiesel and power drops to maybe 32-33 hp, but will still run a bush hog, subsoiler, harrows, tiller, etc., just fine. We probably use the loader the most, to move compost, mulch, and soil for the beds. Looks like this:

Image

Not going to run a 1000+ acre factory farm with it, but I'll let others worry about that.

As for electrics, most of my low-till needs in the gardens and greenhouse are done with an electric tiller run off of a small solar system. Add drip irrigation and plenty of compost, we can produce a LOT OF FOOD in a small space. Fertigation via the drip system helps crops to really produce well (fish emulsion can be easily produced locally if one has a small pond). Drip systems are simple to build out of locally-sourced materials like 1/2" PVC pipe, and last much longer than soaker hoses and drip tape.

Most of our veg food production occurs on less than a half acre of land (out of 48 acres total). Staple crops like potatoes, sweet potatoes, beans, cabbages, peas, leaf vegetables, cucumbers and squash, tomatoes, meet a lot of our needs with plenty to spare, and I have a section for corn/soy (currently fallow). We grow herbs and spices in containers, and have a large bed of blueberry bushes in the garden area. Plenty of room for expansion, still on only a couple of our acres. Chickens are adjacent to the garden and have access in winter to work the soil and compost piles. Catfish in the pond, add a few goats, , and we can feed an extended family pretty well, even without shooting the deer in the front yard.

Not sure what the rest of the world will do. Try to steal our food I suppose.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 20 Jan 2017, 11:00:13

GHung wrote:Not sure what the rest of the world will do. Try to steal our food I suppose.

Far more likely basically continue to ignore you as BAU moves along. You'll do your thing, other people will do theirs.

You'll continue to incorrectly and frequently proclaim doom is in our face.

Now, based on history and facts on the ground, the percentages are certainly behind me, at least for the next several decades.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 20 Jan 2017, 11:06:21

Subjectivist wrote:
KaiserJeep wrote:Tanada, the EV Chargers that I have seen in service stations and the like are high power Level 3 chargers - those can top off most EV's in about 30 minutes.

Level 2 chargers are found in homes and workplaces - and restaurants here in Silly Valley.


They have a pair of level 2 chargers in the municipke lot in Bowling Green home of BGSU. You can charge while you shop or go to dinner, but all the times I have parked there there were never two cars charging and often there are none, but if you park an ICE in those two spots you get a ticket.

So? You should get a ticket if you park in handicapped spaces as well (IMO), and they're not even close to being full all the time in at least 90% of the parking areas I've observed. (Healthy people can walk a few more steps -- it's probably good for the vast majority of them).

As long as the number of spots for EV charging is roughly proportional to the demand for them as EV's scale up, I see no problem. Especially in a private parking lot where someone (businesses) are paying the bills for the parking spaces. But even in a municipal lot, two spaces doesn't seem unreasonable ,with EV's and PHEV's becoming more popular. (EV's and charging spots are, to some extent, a kind of chicken-and-egg thing after all.)

Now, if the government mandates some huge percentage of, say, government metered parking in your city when there are a tiny percentage of EV's (catering to some political minority, most likely), then that would definitely be something to complain about -- and I'm sure people would to their representatives, and in editorials, commentary, etc. That's the way the system is supposed to work.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby GHung » Fri 20 Jan 2017, 11:49:37

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
GHung wrote:Not sure what the rest of the world will do. Try to steal our food I suppose.

Far more likely basically continue to ignore you as BAU moves along. You'll do your thing, other people will do theirs.

You'll continue to incorrectly and frequently proclaim doom is in our face.

Now, based on history and facts on the ground, the percentages are certainly behind me, at least for the next several decades.


Where did I mention "doom"? Indeed, you seem to be the one here obsessed with "doom". Methinks you're trying to project your own fear of the future on others. Considering the horrible creature now being sworn in as POTUS, perhaps you should be afraid. Very afraid..

Me? As you say, I do my own thing; perfectly happy to be ignored. Seems you have a problem doing that.
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