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This Is The Big Self-Driving Milestone We've Been Waiting Fo

Unread postPosted: Fri 01 Dec 2017, 23:50:29
by AdamB
Waymo, the Alphabet (GOOGL) autonomous-car unit, announced Tuesday at AutoMobility LA that it's ready to put passengers in self-driving cars — without an accompanying test or backup driver.


Tony told us where this leads!

Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postPosted: Fri 01 Dec 2017, 23:56:29
by AdamB
Sit back, put your feet up, and let the car do the work. This is the dream of self-driving cars for many, a nightmare for others, and a curiosity for most. Whatever you may feel, this is fast becoming reality as cars with no driver roll out on roads right now.


Reshape those cities...just as Tony Seba has already suggested!

Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postPosted: Sat 02 Dec 2017, 04:11:25
by SeaGypsy
There's nothing in that article about actually reshaping cities.

Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postPosted: Sat 02 Dec 2017, 07:00:17
by dirtyharry
Bull shit 100% .

Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postPosted: Sat 02 Dec 2017, 13:25:43
by AdamB
SeaGypsy wrote:There's nothing in that article about actually reshaping cities.


Watch the video in my sig-line and you will see how it might be envisioned.

Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postPosted: Sat 02 Dec 2017, 13:27:12
by AdamB
dirtyharry wrote:Bull shit 100% .


DENIER!!!!!

All the information for the how is contained in the video in my sigline. Feel free to ignore it sock puppet,it won't stop it from rewriting the rules of the world as you know it.

Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postPosted: Sat 02 Dec 2017, 13:57:36
by pstarr
AdamB, as of late your response to critical analysis (such as that promoted by dirtyharry) seems always to return to several Tony Seba videos. You owe us a direct and concise analysis and discussion of his data and model for 'disruptive'
systems.

Disruption is best described as a rapid and chaotic change. To date, autonomous vehicle development has been anything but rapid or chaotic. It has been snail-pace slow.
Google's self driving car project was formerly led by Sebastian Thrun, former director of the Stanford Artificial Intelligence Laboratory and co-inventor of Google Street View. Thrun's team at Stanford created the robotic vehicle Stanley which won the 2005 DARPA Grand Challenge and its US$2 million prize from the United States Department of Defense.[6] The team developing the system consisted of 15 engineers working for Google, including Chris Urmson, Mike Montemerlo, and Anthony Levandowski who had worked on the DARPA Grand and Urban Challenges.[7]

Sensor technology and associated computer algorithms (at an intial cost of $150,000 in equipment including a $70,000 LIDAR system) have not substantially improved in 12 years of development. The installation of charger infrastructure and purchases of these sensors (for anything more than backup protection and lane maintenance) has not even entered the mass market.

When is Tony Seba's 'disruption' going to happen? Or is that an article of faith as per a particular Techno Religion? If so, would you be willing to share the Original Text?

Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postPosted: Sat 02 Dec 2017, 17:37:16
by Outcast_Searcher
pstarr wrote:When is Tony Seba's 'disruption' going to happen? Or is that an article of faith as per a particular Techno Religion? If so, would you be willing to share the Original Text?

If you would bother to watch the video, Seba makes the numbers, the disruption mechanism, the economics, and the timeframe very clear. In short, he sees the vehicle market largely disrupted by 2030.

You might not like what he says, but at least instead of using hand waving and vague references to fear, he defines his terms and makes his case. He also shows how the building blocks have been coming into place to make the case happen.

He also uses various real world tech examples where rapid disruption has happened, and points out that this (analyzing and predicting disruption) is something he does, and has been doing, for a living.

...

Personally, I think this date is too disruptive for cars because of his assumption that fully autonomous EV taxis will be ramping up starting at about 2021. Given all the issues that need to be resolved to get that to happen ubiquitously, I just think that date is much too aggressive. (By perhaps a decade or so, is my best guess -- and I admit it -- that's just an educated guess).

However, a similar timeframe for solar disrupting the conventional FF powerplant business seems entirely realistic to me, if the cost curve he's pointed out for solar panels stays roughly intact.

Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postPosted: Sat 02 Dec 2017, 17:48:57
by pstarr
Why would I watch his videos? Seba is a goofy clown and everything he says is an extrapolation of his own techtopian dreams. Without basis in real technology.

Siri is smarter then Seba lol

Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postPosted: Sat 02 Dec 2017, 21:19:58
by AdamB
pstarr wrote:AdamB, as of late your response to critical analysis (such as that promoted by dirtyharry) seems always to return to several Tony Seba videos.


Actually just one. Why do you feel the need to lie about how many are required? And dirty didn't have any critical analysis at all, so two lies in one sentence! You are on a roll this weekend!

pstarr wrote: You owe us a direct and concise analysis and discussion of his data and model for 'disruptive'
systems.


Watch the video, and then you'll know exactly why what you just said proves you haven't. You can't stand it, can you, that peak oil back when you claim it happened created the exact circumstances needed to make it irrelevant, don't you?

Or is it because we are talking about an actual expert in the field here that has you all flummoxed, I mean really you and I both know there isn't any Stoner Instructional facility at Stanford, right?

pstarr wrote:
Disruption is best described as a rapid and chaotic change. To date, autonomous vehicle development has been anything but rapid or chaotic. It has been snail-pace slow.


And if you watched the video, you would know why what you just said is axiomatic to an S-curve. And no, it isn't snail pace slow. Surely you learned the Albert Bartlett lesson somewhere back in your infant peak oil days?

pstarr wrote:Sensor technology and associated computer algorithms (at an intial cost of $150,000 in equipment including a $70,000 LIDAR system) have not substantially improved in 12 years of development.


Thank you for proving, yet again, that you didn't watch the video...did he use too big of words in the intro for you? Because he already has examples that prove your statement wrong. Completely wrong. Just goes to show why they don't have Instructional facilities of the Stoner type at Stanford I guess?

Pstarr wrote:When is Tony Seba's 'disruption' going to happen? Or is that an article of faith as per a particular Techno Religion? If so, would you be willing to share the Original Text?


I provided a video specifically for the folks with reading comprehension problems, so this really was aimed right at the likes of you. He talks, and has pictures and stuff! Answers all your questions. Like moving comic books, for the...what is the politically correct word we use nowadays....thinking challenged? :)

Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postPosted: Sun 03 Dec 2017, 01:55:05
by Outcast_Searcher
pstarr wrote:Why would I watch his videos? Seba is a goofy clown and everything he says is an extrapolation of his own techtopian dreams. Without basis in real technology.

Siri is smarter then Seba lol

But of course. You should learn NOTHING, never expose yourself to new ideas, and just post nonsense like a clown.

Just don't wonder why you're considered less and less credible around here as time goes on.

You calling Seba a clown when you can't even be bothered to know ANYTHING about what he's talking about pretty much says it all.

Re: THE Self-Driving Car / Ridesharing Thread

Unread postPosted: Mon 04 Dec 2017, 13:25:49
by StarvingLion
Outcast_Searcher wrote: However, a similar timeframe for solar disrupting the conventional FF powerplant business seems entirely realistic to me, if the cost curve he's pointed out for solar panels stays roughly intact.


Here is the disruption. Its called a scam. "Renewables" are parasitic, they actually cannot deliver grid level power and freeload on the ff infrastructure while bankrupting it because the ff equipment is idle. Thus there is no energy transition. Their "solution" is either the ludicrous Tesla battery or demand management. In other words, you turn on the light switch and the light might not come on. If thats the signature of an advanced civilization then cave people were advanced.

This schizophrenic article is proof that it will never work except as a wealth transfer mechanism.

The high cost of cheap electricity: Don Pittis

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/energy- ... -1.4428048

A glut of electric power means rock bottom wholesale prices that leave taxpayers on the hook

Producing electricity has never been so cheap.

Efficient generation technology, including low-cost wind and solar, and natural gas prices at levels no one predicted a decade ago have contributed to those bargain prices.

According to the rules of market economics, that should be a good thing.

But whether through their electricity bills or through taxes, Canadians have been left paying
for an expensive legacy system of power generation that produces more energy than the economy can consume.
Stuck with old tech

While similar problems exist across the country, energy economist Adam Fremeth says it may be most pronounced in Ontario. He points to the example of natural gas plants that spend most of their time on standby

While some people say the massive new Tesla battery now up and running in Australia is the solution, the three experts pointed to a cheaper way of creating new capacity that doesn't require building anything — instead depending on pricing mechanisms to force consumers and industrial users to avoid using power during periods of peak demand.

Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postPosted: Mon 04 Dec 2017, 14:25:20
by StarvingLion
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
pstarr wrote:Why would I watch his videos? Seba is a goofy clown and everything he says is an extrapolation of his own techtopian dreams. Without basis in real technology.

Siri is smarter then Seba lol

But of course. You should learn NOTHING, never expose yourself to new ideas, and just post nonsense like a clown.

Just don't wonder why you're considered less and less credible around here as time goes on.

You calling Seba a clown when you can't even be bothered to know ANYTHING about what he's talking about pretty much says it all.


Seba the Clown isn't worthy of participating in a 3rd rate circus.

Canonical Instabilities of Autonomous Vehicle Systems: The Unsettling Reality Behind the Dreams of Greed

http://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319699349

Any vehicle/road system is inherently unstable in the control theory sense as a consequence of the basic irregularities of the traffic stream, the road network, and their interactions, placing it in the realm of the Data Rate Theorem that mandates a minimum necessary rate of control information for stability. It appears that large-scale V2V/V2I systems will experience correspondingly large-scale failures analogous to the vast, propagating fronts of power network blackouts, and possibly less benign but more subtle patterns of individual vehicle, platoon, and mesoscale dysfunction.

Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postPosted: Mon 04 Dec 2017, 16:18:22
by Outcast_Searcher
StarvingLion wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
pstarr wrote:Why would I watch his videos? Seba is a goofy clown and everything he says is an extrapolation of his own techtopian dreams. Without basis in real technology.

Siri is smarter then Seba lol

But of course. You should learn NOTHING, never expose yourself to new ideas, and just post nonsense like a clown.

Just don't wonder why you're considered less and less credible around here as time goes on.

You calling Seba a clown when you can't even be bothered to know ANYTHING about what he's talking about pretty much says it all.


Seba the Clown isn't worthy of participating in a 3rd rate circus.

Canonical Instabilities of Autonomous Vehicle Systems: The Unsettling Reality Behind the Dreams of Greed

http://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319699349

Any vehicle/road system is inherently unstable in the control theory sense as a consequence of the basic irregularities of the traffic stream, the road network, and their interactions, placing it in the realm of the Data Rate Theorem that mandates a minimum necessary rate of control information for stability. It appears that large-scale V2V/V2I systems will experience correspondingly large-scale failures analogous to the vast, propagating fronts of power network blackouts, and possibly less benign but more subtle patterns of individual vehicle, platoon, and mesoscale dysfunction.

So in your delusional world, the traffic control systems (i.e. NETWORKS) that control all the airliners can't possibly work. They must be "unstable" since they require information and coordination to function. Gee, don't tell the airlines, airports, or the passengers that just in the US traveled by airliner nearly 642 billion miles in 2015 (with the total miles steadily increasing annually, at least through 2015.) :roll:

https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita ... 01_40.html

Why is it that doomers keep making claims that fail a 10 second common sense test, but keep acting like they have the FIRST hint of any meaningful knowledge of the subject on which they incessantly blather?

Is it because other doomers just accept ANY doomy projection without ANY critical thought?