Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 18 Dec 2015, 07:42:52

http://www.vox.com/2015/12/14/10121638/ ... -dominance

Just in case there is still anyone out there who thinks it will be easy to move to a completely carbon free economy quickly.

Have we hit "the end of the fossil fuel era"? Not even close.

The Paris climate deal is, potentially, an important first step toward addressing climate change. But some of the headlines have been wildly overstated, saying the treaty marks the "end of the fossil fuel era."

That's awfully premature.

Oil, gas, and coal still make up about 86 percent of the world's energy supply — a fraction that has barely budged since 1997.


Image

Here's one way to do it: Cut energy demand in half, then in half again, then in half again...now you are within spitting distance of that fraction of the total supply that is provided by renewables.

Easy? No. Necessary? Yes.

There is no way to build out renewables fast enough to even meet current demands, much less ever-growing energy demands.

As a wise poster once wrote, we have not so much an energy shortage as an expectation longage.

Oh, and partly we will just have to learn to live with intermittency--we already do so in other areas, and even in electricity. During and after major storms, everyone knows that it is likely that large swaths of the population and economy in a certain region will be without energy. It is a hardship, but the entire economy of the country does not suddenly crumble to ashes. We just will have more of those, or more times at least when non-essential operations will have to shut down.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16781
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Unread postby GHung » Fri 18 Dec 2015, 09:32:51

"As a wise poster once wrote, we have not so much an energy shortage as an expectation longage."

Pretty sure that was Nate Hagens. Here's his primer on post carbon reality:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdqnBKx ... e=youtu.be
.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1800
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 18 Dec 2015, 09:36:51

There are only two choices in reality.

1.) stick fingers in ears, pretend people will use much less, and say we are moving to C free; as we continue to burn all the coal that can be dug out of the ground.

2.) build an obnoxious amount of nuclear power plants.

I think we are choosing to do #1. I think that is sad, but that is the verdict of the ruling representatives of the people of the world.

Sad thing is, if you did #2; you'd have long enough to realistically dampen demand and build out substantial amounts of renewables.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
User avatar
AgentR11
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6128
Joined: Tue 22 Mar 2011, 08:15:51
Location: East Texas

Re: No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Unread postby GHung » Fri 18 Dec 2015, 09:54:28

"2.) build an obnoxious amount of nuclear power plants."

There are over 1200 coal-fired plants and more on the way. We can't replace even a fraction of those with nukes any more than we'll replace that capacity with renewables.

3.) Admit we're totally screwed, hunker down, and hope at least a few humans make it through the horrible bottleneck we've designed for ourselves.

Image

Image
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1800
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 18 Dec 2015, 10:08:20

AgentR11 wrote:There are only two choices in reality.

1.) stick fingers in ears, pretend people will use much less, and say we are moving to C free; as we continue to burn all the coal that can be dug out of the ground.

2.) build an obnoxious amount of nuclear power plants.

I think we are choosing to do #1. I think that is sad, but that is the verdict of the ruling representatives of the people of the world.

Sad thing is, if you did #2; you'd have long enough to realistically dampen demand and build out substantial amounts of renewables.



Exactly, we have the technical know how, but not the sense of purpose required to accomplish a transition even of the easy stuff. We could easily do what France did in the 1970's and convert 75% of our grid in ten years if we decided to do it and used the same proven identical design over and over so that any person trained anywhere could work anywhere else. We could even do it by building a breeder design run at conversion level so we could stop mining fuel metals today because the stockpile we are sitting on now would run us total nuclear electric with storage/renewables to fill in peak demand periods.

Instead we are like the lawyer from Sister Act, "I can't hear this 'lalalalala'" while the gangsters plot murder. Pretending we do not know what the problem is (cheap but supply limited atmosphere damaging fossil fuels) so we don't have to act is childish and verging on suicidal.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 14067
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Unread postby GHung » Fri 18 Dec 2015, 10:16:14

Pretending there's a "we" when it comes to responding to this thing is childish and verging on delusional.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1800
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 18 Dec 2015, 10:30:55

GHung wrote:Pretending there's a "we" when it comes to responding to this thing is childish and verging on delusional.


Sticks and Stones and all that, but WE humans have made our preferences well known through our leaders. Pretending otherwise is a choice anyone can make for any reason, may it bring you whatever joy you can get from it.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 14067
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 18 Dec 2015, 10:32:28

We simply means the 'collection of all hominids'.

I can do a /s/we/collection.. and repost if it would help you read it better.

We doesn't imply some consensus policy or other intentional or coordinated action of a group.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
User avatar
AgentR11
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6128
Joined: Tue 22 Mar 2011, 08:15:51
Location: East Texas

Re: No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Unread postby efarmer » Fri 18 Dec 2015, 10:42:07

I wonder how various governments that actually implement carbon reduction will survive the austere results on their populace involved and stay in power to continue to implement the plan?
After a long period of AGW debate we have the first signs from Paris of political consensus, but
the action is going to lag until governments figure out how to survive implementation so they have a shot at getting something meaningful done.
User avatar
efarmer
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1997
Joined: Fri 17 Mar 2006, 03:00:00

Re: No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 18 Dec 2015, 11:12:19

farmer - "political consensus"". I think you hit the key hurdle. Political consensus" that something should be done doesn't become a consensus to actually take action until their is a majority of voter consensus to push the politicians in that direction. Even a voter consensus that something should be done won't change anything until there's a consensus to actually take action.

My same position: actions are meaningful. Words...not so much.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10644
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Unread postby GHung » Fri 18 Dec 2015, 11:13:51

Tanada said; "Sticks and Stones and all that, but WE humans have made our preferences well known through our leaders."

No sticks and stones intended at all, and others have made opposite preferences well known, through their leaders (e g : James Inhofe, etc.) and through their political and propaganda contributions. So-called developing nations made their preferences known in forums such as Paris. India and China, especially, have no intention of shelving their plans for many more CO2 belching coal plants, and China has found its one-child policy to be demographically inconvenient.

I could go on, but "we" aren't making progress in any sense that matters. We can build hundreds of nuke plants to help bring another 2+ billion humans into near-first-world standards of living, but keeping global warming below anywhere close to 2 degrees is simply a pipe dream at this point, IMO, and "we" have a collection of other predicaments that are likely to require more immediate action and real capital expenditures which will include increasing our collective CO2 footprint.

I have no doubt that "we" will reduce our impacts on the planet at some point, and no doubt those reductions will be forced;, not as the result of some collective cooperative actions.

I've been involved locally in several group actions to further the cause of climate action. Virtually none of those folks have renegotiated their lifestyles in any way that matters much. That says everything I need to know.

More than 2,400 coal-fired power stations are under construction or being planned around the world, a study has revealed two weeks after Britain pledged to stop burning coal.

The new plants will emit 6.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year and undermine the efforts at the Paris climate conference to limit global warming to 2C. China is building 368 plants and planning a further 803, according to the study by four climate change research bodies, including Ecofys and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. India is building 297 and planning 149. Rich countries are also planning new coal plants. The nuclear disaster at Fukushima has prompted Japan to turn back to coal, with 40 plants in the pipeline and five under construction. –Ben Webster, The Times, 2 December 2015

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/environme ... 629455.ece

The study:

http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/ ... _COP21.pdf
Last edited by GHung on Fri 18 Dec 2015, 12:29:28, edited 1 time in total.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1800
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 18 Dec 2015, 12:01:53


More than 2,400 coal-fired power stations are under construction or being planned around the world, a study has revealed two weeks after Britain pledged to stop burning coal.

The new plants will emit 6.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year and undermine the efforts at the Paris climate conference to limit global warming to 2C. China is building 368 plants and planning a further 803, according to the study by four climate change research bodies, including Ecofys and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. India is building 297 and planning 149. Rich countries are also planning new coal plants. The nuclear disaster at Fukushima has prompted Japan to turn back to coal, with 40 plants in the pipeline and five under construction. –


All of these new coal fired plants are permitted under the Paris Accords.

No limits on carbon production or coal-fired power plants were set at Paris.

Under the Paris accords even the goal of limiting temperature increases to only 2°C is only "aspirational"---not binding.

cheers!

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
"Il bel far niente"
---traditional Italian saying
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 20531
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 18 Dec 2015, 12:35:45

efarmer wrote:I wonder how various governments that actually implement carbon reduction will survive the austere results on their populace involved and stay in power to continue to implement the plan?


Smart. I believe this points to Hardin's Tragedy of the Commons, and the conflict that is playing out now.

--We in the industrial world need lots of energy as our food and life depend on distant transport, and so we feel entitled (justifiably) to make more pollution.

--those in the third world deserve (justifiably) to reach the same level of comfort we achieved decades ago (by using so very much energy.) Folks in the third world just need a little more to get to the same place of comfort it took us centuries. Governments of any ilk will be voted out that follow the agreement. That is why we nee dohboi's Gentle Vegan dictatorship to save us lol
Haven't you heard? I'm a doomer!
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 26337
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Unread postby GHung » Fri 18 Dec 2015, 12:48:03

--those in the third world deserve (justifiably) to reach the same level of comfort we achieved decades ago (by using so very much energy.) Folks in the third world just need a little more to get to the same place of comfort it took us centuries.


....along with the billion or more new mouths to feed that the third world is expected to add in the next 15 years. So the plan is to increase their per capita consumption, add another billion or so into that lot, while dramatically decreasing CO2 emissions. Ain't. Gonna. Happen.

Meanwhile, the vast majority of westerners have no intention of reducing their consumption in any impactful way. They're busy trying to reboot 'growth' any way they can.

The “Perfect Storm”

John Beddington, England’s chief scientific advisor, warned last year that these trends may constitute a “perfect storm.” He said, It is predicted that by 2030 the world will need to produce around 50 per cent more food and energy, together with 30 per cent more fresh water, whilst mitigating and adapting to climate change. This threatens to create a ‘perfect storm’ of global events...There's not going to be a complete collapse, but things will start getting really worrying if we don't tackle these problems....

https://www.populationinstitute.org/ext ... r_2030.pdf
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1800
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 18 Dec 2015, 13:02:11

--those in the third world deserve (justifiably) to reach the same level of comfort we achieved decades ago (by using so very much energy.) Folks in the third world just need a little more to get to the same place of comfort it took us centuries.
[/quote]

1. No one "deserves" anything and no one is "guaranteed" anything.

2. Centuries ago there no solar cell arrays and modern wind farms to generate electricity hadn't been invented yet.

Its just stupid for 3rd world countries to build coal-fired power plants to re-create 19th century style coal-fired infrastructure instead of building 21st century carbon-free infrastructure.

cheers!
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 20531
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 18 Dec 2015, 13:17:32

GHung wrote:
There are over 1200 coal-fired plants and more on the way. We can't replace even a fraction of those with nukes any more than we'll replace that capacity with renewables.


Why not?

Why not build 1200 carbon-free solar, wind and nuclear power plants instead of 1200 dirty coal-fired power plants?

Image
Why the support for building hundreds more Chinese coal-fired power plants?
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 20531
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Unread postby GHung » Fri 18 Dec 2015, 14:18:40

Plant asks; "Why the support for building hundreds more Chinese coal-fired power plants?"

Support by whom? Certainly not me. I'm one of the few here who has spent the last twenty years trying to get off of coal. Made far more progress than most of you, I'm sure.

"Why not build 1200 carbon-free solar, wind and nuclear power plants instead of 1200 dirty coal-fired power plants?"

Jeez, Plant, take one of your trips to China and walk around Tiananmen Square with a big freaking sign; wave a magic renewable wand at the crowd. See what 1.3 billion Chinese think about that. They'll likely point out that they've installed more "renewables" than the US, and they'll also tell you they still plan to build those coal plants, no matter how much you beg them not to.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1800
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 18 Dec 2015, 16:28:32

"dohboi's gentle Vegan Dictatorship" :lol: :lol: :lol:

Very nice! Can I steal it and patent it?
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16781
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 18 Dec 2015, 16:44:03

GHung wrote:Jeez, Plant, take one of your trips to China and walk around Tiananmen Square with a big freaking sign; wave a magic renewable wand at the crowd. See what 1.3 billion Chinese think about that. They'll likely point out that they've installed more "renewables" than the US, and they'll also tell you they still plan to build those coal plants, no matter how much you beg them not to.


Boy I can tell you've never been to China. You'd last about 30 seconds waving "a big freakin sign" around in Tienamen Square---the Chinese military is everywhere there and so are the Chinese plainclothes security police. Your idea just won't work dude. You could hold up a hundred signs begging China and India and other nations not to build coal-fired plants, but begging isn't going to make the Chinese stop.

Try to be sensible about this. One person waving a sign in Beiing is a waste of time. The way to deal with this is nation to nation.

The only way to make countries reduce their carbon production is to craft a UN climate treaty that binds nations to do it. Of course thanks to Obama the world has now lost that opportunity. I'm sure we'll get back that idea in about 20 years when atmospheric CO2 continues to rise along with sea level and the world blows past the meaningless 2 degree limit on warming that Obama and the other morons just voted for in Paris.

Cheers!

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
"Il bel far niente"
---traditional Italian saying
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 20531
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: No Progress toward C-Free Economy in 20 Years

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 18 Dec 2015, 16:51:52

"You can beg China and India and other nations not to build coal-fired plants all you want, but begging isn't going to make the Chinese stop."

India, either, apparently:

India still plans to double coal output by 2020 and rely on the resource for decades afterwards, a senior official said on Monday, days after rich and poor countries agreed in Paris to curb carbon emissions blamed for global warming....
...there were limitations to clean energy and coal would remain the most efficient energy source for decades, he said.


http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2015/12 ... -wont.html
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16781
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Next

Return to Energy Technology

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests