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U.S. Energy Independence Impossible Without Replacement Fuel

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U.S. Energy Independence Impossible Without Replacement Fuel

Unread postby Graeme » Tue 04 Feb 2014, 18:27:27

Study Finds U.S. Energy Independence Not Possible Without Adoption of Replacement Fuels

The Fuel Freedom Foundation (FFF), today announced the findings of a study conducted by Eyal Aronoff. The study reveals that without mass adoption of natural gas and biomass as feedstock for transportation fuels to replace oil, the U.S. and its economy will be dependent on foreign oil. Even with the projected increased growth of domestic oil production, the total cost of oil imports will continue to top $300 billion a year. Under these circumstances it will not be possible for the U.S. to achieve oil independence in the next 20 years.


"In order to become energy independent, we need to reduce our oil consumption by half. We can do that by replacing transportation fuels made from oil with those using natural gas as a feedstock, like methanol and ethanol," said Eyal Aronoff, co-founder of FFF, and the author of the study. "The abundance of low cost feedstocks for competitive fuels will drive down the price of fuel, and will deflate the power of the oil price setters, allowing the US to be truly energy independent."

The full report can be downloaded free of charge at www.fuelfreedom.org.


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Re: U.S. Energy Independence Impossible Without Replacement

Unread postby GHung » Tue 04 Feb 2014, 19:26:35

"...we need to reduce our oil consumption by half..."

We, as in my family, have cut our petroleum consumption by more than half in the last 5 years, and it wasn't a big deal. "We" can start by taxing the crap out of any discretionary uses of petroleum like ICE toys and pleasure boats, and moving more transportation to electrified rail. Of course, "we" waited too long to implement any strategies that will make much of a difference.

At least these folks are admitting that the supply side isn't going to magically make energy independence more than a pipe dream, except when "we" can no longer compete with the rest of the world for ever more expensive petroleum exports. Methinks the problem of energy imports will be self-resolving in due time. I'm sceptical that the FFF really thinks that replacement fuels, especially natural gas, will be the answer for the long haul; at least I hope they're not that naive.
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Re: U.S. Energy Independence Impossible Without Replacement

Unread postby Paulo1 » Tue 04 Feb 2014, 19:56:11

We have also really cut back on ff consumption in our house, oddly enough by moving farther from town...75 km farther. What this does is insure we no longer 'chase'. If I run out of screws or hinges, whatever, I simply wait until we do a 'town run'. This is bi-weekly unless there is an important reason to go more often. (aging in-laws). In years past I would have simply zipped downtown and got what I needed...or wanted. The 75 km distance forced a trade in (actually scrapping) of my 3/4 ton chev 4X4. I now drive an 86 toyota pu with a 4 banger. For 90% of our town runs we use a Yaris. We seldom drive, ever. Instead, we walk a great deal and I scoot around our area on an old bicycle. I use a small 13 hp tractor to haul firewood off our property or till up everyone's gardens.

Much like a more expensive commute forcing carpooling or reductions in driving, rising gas prices and/or higher cummulative energy bills will do the same thing for most families, imho. Tax the living hell out of gas and call it what it is, a worldwide emergency requiring a new approach. Of course to do that politicians will first have to admit to a problem. For the time being there is a dual message on tap. One, the economy is improving so just hang in there. Two, it may seem like tough times, but we are virtually energy self-sufficient and good times will unfold for all to share in the spoils. I think it will take another collapse and some burning tires to get some straight talk happening. As JH Kunstler says, we still have the jive talkin and it isn't helping.

regards....Paulo
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Re: U.S. Energy Independence Impossible Without Replacement

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 04 Feb 2014, 19:58:14

What we lack is somebody with a master plan for the country. I don't think we want to build another distribution network to rival the 700,000-odd gasoline retail stations in this country. An example of a high level plan for transition would be:
1) Continue to promote EVs as commuter vehicles, and develop widespread solar charger infrastructure.
2) Require all ICE vehicles to have flex fuel engines as standard by date A.
3) Reduce the two grades of gasoline sold to a single grade by date B. As the one grade of gasoline is retired, replace it with the new non-petroleum liquid fuel. Existing stations then serve a mix of new and old vehicles with both gasoline and our new wonder fuel.
4) As PO happens worldwide, gasoline becomes relatively more expensive. The mix of vehicles slowly transitions to be predominately EVs and flex-fuel designs. Gasoline is never actually retired, it eventually becomes the expensive low-volume fuel used by wealthy people in vintage vehicles.
5) Form a similar plan for both light and heavy diesel vehicles.

I mention this because it seems like an entirely appropriate goal for a Federal government. Why don't we have some version of such a plan in place?
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Re: U.S. Energy Independence Impossible Without Replacement

Unread postby rollin » Tue 04 Feb 2014, 21:58:38

"We can do that by replacing transportation fuels made from oil with those using natural gas as a feedstock, like methanol and ethanol," said Eyal Aronoff, co-founder of FFF,"

So where is all that natural gas going to come from, we are having price spikes just from cold weather? Besides doubling the supply, a new conversion method must be developed. The current one loses 40% of the energy during conversion.

Dreams are nice but reality keeps getting in the way of things, doesn't it?
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Re: U.S. Energy Independence Impossible Without Replacement

Unread postby Graeme » Tue 04 Feb 2014, 22:43:49

For those who can't find the report, here it is. Notice that FFF regard methanol, ethanol, natural gas, electricity and domestic oil as replacement fuel. The report I refer to above concludes that energy independence is not possible.
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Re: U.S. Energy Independence Impossible Without Replacement

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 05 Feb 2014, 08:37:12

This is not the first analysis of this type. I agree that one must consider BOTH the vehicle fuels and the electric power grid in the same analysis, as they are coupled together and interdependent.

The biggest flaw is that this study assumes that there will be no effective policy making that ultimately changes the mix of energy sources at the national level. (By the way, did everyone note that there was only ONE energy source that actually declined in cost over 25 years?)

Call me an optimist on this topic. While I realize that every US president since Dwight D. Eisenhower has decried the increasing dependence upon imported energy, while failing to act effectively, I do not think there is no hope in this matter. I outlined the bare bones of one such plan in message #4 in this thread.

My most maddening thought is that a relatively simple and easy to express plan such as I outlined, will fail of implementation because our two major political parties will gridlock in the same fashion as they did over Healthcare.

An effective National Energy Plan is much more important than National Healthcare.

We need a Leader in this country, someone who can make this happen. During the entire span of the 20th Century, I count only three Presidents who were Leaders. Who they were is unimportant, and I deliberately refrained from naming them, as not to invoke the reflexive partisanship that cripples American politics today.

The opportunity for Greatness exists today, as it did for George Washington or Abraham Lincoln. If only we had a great man to join these two greatest of US presidents.
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Re: U.S. Energy Independence Impossible Without Replacement

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 05 Feb 2014, 14:29:16

pstarr, we have more EVs and more chargers for them than any other part of the USA. With increasing frequency, retail stores are installing solar-pumped kiosks with charging connections - because it makes the difference between attracting the EV crowd as customers. These solar-pumped charging stations are off the grid, self-contained, and there are online maps that show you which chargers are unused at the moment. This is after all, Silicon Valley, the home of Tesla Motors.

Other places in the state do not have such a well-developed infrastructure, but we are experimenting with "Range Extenders" for EVs.
Image
These are aka "gensets". They are constant speed engines, flex-fuel capable and with extremely effective emissions controls, that essentially make an EV's range unlimited. They are available for all types of production EVs, in some cases from the vehicle manufacturer. The guy down the street has a Nissan Leaf and rents the range extender for vacations. We are proving that with such extenders, approximately 3/4ths of the vehicles here in the Valley could be EVs.

Likewise we have almost universal SmartMeter installations and are well into the implementation of the SmartGrid technology. PG&E is offering a special "Electric Vehicle" rate schedule that allows them to manage the charging of thousands of such vehicles AND realize savings from controlling off-peak power loads.

I was deliberately a little vague about the alternative liquid fuel, since it could be either a biofuel or the earlier-mentioned fuels created from natural gas feedstocks. For that matter, with flex fuel engines and an open marketplace, it could be "all of the above" including ethanol, methanol, and both natural gas and coal-sourced liquid fuels.

California has exceeded the earlier 20% renewable energy goal and is well on the way to the next goal of 33% renewables by 2020. You live here too, do you not? The technology may not be as visible up North as in Silicon Valley, but it is coming.
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Re: U.S. Energy Independence Impossible Without Replacement

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 05 Feb 2014, 17:12:54

KJ, Thanks for input here. Most helpful.
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