Peak Oil News and Message Boards

The US Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, last week released an early version of its Annual Energy Outlook 2014 – the AEO2014 Reference case (the complete AEO 2014 is to be released only in September next year only) - underlining in rather bold headlines that the United States will continue to grow less (and less) dependent on foreign oil as tight oil boom adds to supply and more efficient vehicles reduce demand - a double squeeze indeed on the total consumption of the world’s largest energy consumer.

US oil production, which slipped to as low as 5.1 million barrels a day in 2006, topped 8 million in the first week of December. Now crude oil production in the United States is expected to rise faster than projected earlier - to a near historic high by 2016, said the EIA, sharply raising its annual output forecasts further as shale oil development transforms the US energy balance - at a rather breakneck speed. The forecasts show that shale will help oil output in the world’s largest consumer increase by 800,000 barrels a day every year until 2016, when it will total 9.5 million b/d, just below a 1970 record of 9.6 million. However, in contrast to the IEA forecast of considerable downward trend immediately after and OPEC getting back into strides, the EIA projects that the US output will still be above nine million - until at least 2025.

Despite that, for the economy overall, energy use per dollar of production will fall by 43 percent between 2012 and 2040, as the economy's less energy-intensive services sector grows.
We are in the midst of a virtual energy revolution – who can dare deny?

TheAntiDoomer wrote:We are in the midst of a virtual energy revolution – who can dare deny?

TheAntiDoomer wrote:LOL ROCKMAN. you're a nut. How do you have so much time to spend here for a being such a busy fracker?

ROCKMAN wrote:Since it's the holidays I'll be generous and allow the "energy revolution" despite that it's really a price revolution. The production increase is just a nice side effect. All the oil patch can do is repeat ole Marie A's line: Let them eat cake. Or in our case: Let them burn wood.

JV153 wrote:I'm suspicious of what EIA includes as oil in their reporting these days, but I'm quite sure that US oil production won't hit 9.5 mbarrels/day by 2016 or by 20xx.

ROCKMAN wrote:Again I'll note my amazement over the focus on such metrics (whether they prove correct or not) compared to a very simple and unarguable measure: the price of oil and it's effect on economies. Again is the US better for the increase in oil production since it came coupled with a tripling of oil cost? Is the US better off since we're importing less oil than we were 5 years ago but we're sending more $'s to foreign countries for our imports then we were 5 years ago?

Such enthusiasm is like complimenting someone for their weight loss thanks to their cancer. Neither situation is very good. Except for the oncologists and geologists, of course. LOL.

ROCKMAN wrote:ad - "If you mean American workers". I do. I may not point it out but when I refer to economies having difficulties with the price of oil I'm not referring specifically to businesses. It’s all about folks having to make it paycheck to paycheck. Luckily I’m more towards the top of the income pyramid. But it’s that huge chunk of the population that occupies the lower half that directly suffers from high energy prices. I can easily handle $100. Many can handle $200 oil. But we are the vast minority.

The majority of Americans were better off financially a half dozen years ago when we were producing less domestic oil and importing more oil then they are today. Again, it’s really simple: they don’t care how much oil production has increased in this country: they care about how much they have to fork over for their oil consumption. And that has increased. And a few do care how much of our wealth we transfer to foreign countries for oil. And that number has also increased.

Folks can babble all day about proven shale oil reserves, increased domestic oil production and decreases in imported oil volumes all they want. It doesn’t change the fact that the average US consumer is in worse financial condition with regards to oil today they have been in many years.