Oh Jeez Louise. Where to start, where to start.
Let’s start with the original question
I am curious why people living near large hydroelectric plants will be effected if the "Dooms-Day" scenario comes about. Water will still provide electricity to those near large dams such as the Grand Coulie or Hoover right?
There are some fundamental principals you need to understand. Electricity is consumed basically instantaneously after it is generated. The little electron used to keep your computer monitor on was generated just milliseconds ago by either a hydro plant, nuke plant, coal plant, what have you. There is very little variation that can be tolerated in an electrical grid. As demand increases, or decreases, those responsible for running the grid dispatch commands to the generators to either decrease or increase generation. When the electricity flowing through a grid exceeds thresholds in either direction is when you start to have problems and circuits trip to prevent equipment from getting damaged.
I suppose hypothetically if your community lives near a hydro plant and you always consume exactly the power that is being put out by the plant, and you are completely disconnected from the rest of the grid, then ya, you could continue on your merry way. But that isn’t the way it works.
pstarr wrote: You are absolutely correct. Those near hydro will fare better because there is less transmission loss.
LOL! What?? I’m really struggling to see what on earth you could possibly be referring to, because on the face of it that statement is pure garbage. No one fares better because there is less transmission loss. Transmission loss is just that, lost power between the generator and the end consumer. It has no impact on reliability of power availability.
A customer who is way out at the end of the line doesn’t have less reliability of power because power has been lost due to transmission.
roel wrote:Richard Duncan's Olduvai says permanent black-outs will start in 2008. The reason, as per him, and he's right, lies in the fact the electricity grid is the most complex machine ever devised by man. All those regional thingies are connected. And that means that you will get a domino effect. If it had the reselience of the internet, we'd be better off longer. But alas, the grid is made from so many zillion different components from so many different time-frames, it's a miracle it still works at all. It does so because of tons of maintenance. Many parts of the system are maxed out on hot days, as we all know. And they are not easily expanded or replaced, you're talking trillions of bucks to get it all up to date.
From Wikipedia:
Duncan is often called a psuedoscientist as he does not publish in reputable peer-reviewed journals, and because his research has been often quoted by some racially biased organizations and Illuminati conspiracy theorists.
Quoting Duncan gets you nowhere with me. But I’ll give you one point: the grid is a complex beast. The grid works, even in the face of improper maintenance because we understand the science, the equipment that we have deployed and how to manage everything. Go to wikipedia and read up on the details of the east coast blackout and take a look at all of the events that had to happen in succession for the problem to become as big as it did.
I’ll bet you dollars to doughnuts that Duncan’s prediction about permanent blackouts in 2008 will be as prescient as my ability to pick the next 6 winning numbers in the lottery.
As Peak Oil sinks it’s teeth in, we will scramble to transition everything that we can to our electrical grids. They aren’t ready for it, and there will be problems as they struggle to catch up.
But the grid isn’t going to crash overnight - if you believe that I have a bridge I can sell you and some fabulous land in Florida.