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Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

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Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 28 Jun 2017, 14:08:52

shortonoil wrote:
For crying out loud, it didn't even take but a scan to reveal that the halfwits who wrote this thing use Campbell and Laharrere from 1998 as an accurate reference, what with peak oil having happened more than a decade ago! And how wonderfully accurate that call was!!


It is amazing that a human mind can deteriorate that much in one life time?

Adam seems to kind be stuck in some weird ancient argument, perhaps dating to when he may have been actually employed by an oil company?

Truth be known, Campbell and Laherrère's backdated discovery curve is the gold standard of modern peak oil theory. All attempts to destroy it subsequently failed. Who can forget reservergrowthrulz and johndenver? May they rest in pain in their crypts lol

It's not possible that Adam is a dead troll come to life? :shock: Holy jeez . . . a vampire troll. The worst lol
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby Cog » Wed 28 Jun 2017, 14:21:55

Oh my God we are all going to die--Pstarr
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 28 Jun 2017, 14:24:25

pstarr wrote:Truth be known, Campbell and Laherrère's backdated discovery curve is the gold standard of modern peak oil theory. All attempts to destroy it subsequently failed.


Yes, they did a great job of listing all past oil discoveries up to the year they wrote their paper predicting peak oil.

But for some reason they did a terrible job of predicting the amount of oil that would be produced in the years 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017, and they certainly never dreamed the world would be in a major oil glut now.

Cheers!

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby Cog » Wed 28 Jun 2017, 14:43:00

Obviously Plant, facts have no place here. Its all about DOOM.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby donstewart » Wed 28 Jun 2017, 15:36:52

Wrong???

Article currently on Zero Hedge recounting Goldman's analysis of oil prices. Contains one memorable line:
"How did it go so wrong",

Don Stewart
PS Maybe those academics in France (and our own Mr. Hill) are actually on to something?
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 28 Jun 2017, 15:44:27

Cog wrote:
pstarr wrote:Oilfinder tried and failed.


Really? Explain.

My Hill is on some good drugs and please give me the source so I can have them.

Your constant yapping is perhaps explained by your diet pills? Now that you dropped a girth-size on the meatatarian diet you should take up yoga. And do the chill thing.

But you are a newbie. I can share the olifinders years-long and pathetic attempt to revise the discovery collapse. Interested?
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 28 Jun 2017, 16:02:02

Article currently on Zero Hedge recounting Goldman's analysis of oil prices.


If you are wondering where the irrational gibberish often found here is originating from we need to look no further.

This leaves us cyclically bullish within a structurally bearish framework: the near-term price risks are now increasingly skewed to the upside while the low velocity deflationary forces of the New Oil Order are still at play.


Sound like anyone you know? Cog and Adam could take some lessons from these guys.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 28 Jun 2017, 16:12:42

Goldman Sachs is one of the top cheerleaders for BAU, one should take whatever they say with a grain of salt.
“When the last tree is cut down, the last fish eaten and the last stream poisoned, you will realize that you cannot eat money.”
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby Cog » Wed 28 Jun 2017, 17:09:29

Except that Goldman Sachs is profitable and you are what exactly onlooker? Living in mom's basement?

LOL
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 28 Jun 2017, 17:39:50

pstarr wrote:Truth be known, Campbell and Laherrère's backdated discovery curve is the gold standard of modern peak oil theory. All attempts to destroy it subsequently failed.


The gold standard happens to be the intellectual descendants of Hubbert himself. I'll provide the reference for those who can read, no need for you to click on it pstarr.

https://energy.usgs.gov/OilGas/ReserveGrowth.aspx
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 28 Jun 2017, 21:52:18

shortonoil wrote:If Joe Six doesn't have a job, affordable oil is an oxymoron.

Worrying about a jobs problem seems like an oxymoron, when we're right around full employment.

Claiming that everything that could potentially go wrong will go wrong hasn't been credible for the last decade. (Doomers making constant bad short term calls on the economy.) Why should it be credible now?

...

Oh, and it's not like Joe Six won't have unemployment for a short term job loss. And its not like the 100ish federal anti-poverty programs US taxpayers support to the tune of over a $trillion annually to help "poor" people are suddenly going away.

So really, you expect us to take you seriously when you have to make up examples like this to claim oil is "unaffordable"?
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 28 Jun 2017, 23:30:56

Plant - "...for some reason they did a terrible job of predicting the amount of oil that would be produced..." Not for "some reason" but for a very specific reason: the inability to predict future oil prices. Which is a skill lacked by every other person on the planet: not one person has ever been able to CONSISTENTLY predict future oil prices sufficient to project their effect on future production. Just as no one can CREDIBLY predict oil prices 5 to 10 years out today.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby marmico » Thu 29 Jun 2017, 01:22:11

So really, you expect us to take you seriously when you have to make up examples like this to claim oil is "unaffordable"?


Oil is quite affordable for JoeSixPack. Hours worked to buy a barrel.

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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 29 Jun 2017, 05:37:07

The Fed is trying to imitate something for nothing.

LTO $20 better be true without the Petrodollar. Imagine producing LTO with US energy and steel production, or to pay for imports by actually producing and exporting something in return, or to pay for imports in gold.

When someone talks about selling oil in something other than dollars their nations get bombed like Iraq and Libya and their leders get hanged like Saddam or sodomised to death with a bayonet like Gaddafi, just to make the message clear.

Our governments will protect western values and look after us at any cost ("what ever it takes").

Obviously they can't just bomb Russia, but they can blow up a neighbouring country and impose sanctions to try to get Russia on its knees. We took Russia's girlfriend Ukraine, turned her into a street hooker, smashed up Russia's car and now we want Russia to pay for the damage.

By making sure that China and Saudi Arabia has large dollar reserves that gives them another 4 years of security, even they will to some degree protect the Petrodollar. Chia is today buying oil for yuan that can be converted into gold. Time to blow up North Korea and deal with that crazy dictator ?
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 29 Jun 2017, 06:46:06

Yes, Yoshua, but the Geopolitical situation is slowly but surely changing. The emergence of the Asian Tigers especially China along with the debt saturated and anemic manufacturing West has tilted the economic balance towards the East but nevertheless despite ongoing preparations nobody is ready to take up the mantle from the US of being the Global Reserve Currency/Petrodollar. China the most likely candidate needs an export oriented economy to have work for its people. So, it cannot export its currency (import goods/services) in sufficient quantity to allow it to take up the mantle. In the final analysis all this minutiae of economic interplay and geopolitical maneuvering will be rendered meaningless by the global tsunami of shortage of exomatic energy to run a globalized trade oriented world economy
“When the last tree is cut down, the last fish eaten and the last stream poisoned, you will realize that you cannot eat money.”
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 29 Jun 2017, 07:15:01

Worrying about a jobs problem seems like an oxymoron, when we're right around full employment.


Obviously another FED, BIS induced miracle. The US has the lowest labor participation rate in its history, and the highest number of people on food stamps, but we have full employment. If you can believe that what the central banks are printing is real money you can believe the above, or almost anything. Credulity is certainly an essential characteristic that is needed to keep the modern day economy functioning. Get your brain fried, and do your duty to society.

Obviously they can't just bomb Russia, but they can blow up a neighbouring country and impose sanctions to try to get Russia on its knees. We took Russia's girlfriend Ukraine, turned her into a street hooker, smashed up Russia's car and now we want Russia to pay for the damage.


The oil wars have already begun, and will soon go from proxy skirmishes to outright military confrontations as the Middle East falls further into insolvency. We have a time line to see it coming, and that is when the House Saudi has gone irrevocably bankrupt. Right now we are looking at no more than three years. That should be about the same time that US refineries begin shutting their doors, and the US begins to run short of cash to fund its welfare, surveillance state. The outcome will likely be an immensely costly, and bloody war over a commodity that will soon have little, or no value.

Let's just hope that we have three years!
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby donstewart » Thu 29 Jun 2017, 07:26:57

George Mobus; EROEI; Dollars

People in the oil patch tend to think that the sun rises and sets on dollars...as a number of posters here repeatedly claim. On the other hand, the true believers in Biophysical Economics tend to think in terms of things like energy and resource flows, with dollars tagging along. Then there is a third camp that tends to think that finance (debt) drives the boat. George Mobus, who was just at the Biophysical Economics conference in Flathead Lake, MT, reported as follows:

'The main topic was EROI, but there was a considerable amount of dissension as to what that should mean. One significant problem in expanding the boundaries of EROI analysis is that most of the data are reported in dollar amounts and the analysts are forced to convert dollars into joules for consistency. The problem is that dollars are incredibly lousy measures of anything anymore. Financialization of the economy has distorted the value of dollars so much that nothing really meaningful can be said about energy costs converted from dollar measures. This will continue to be a major problem in BPE for some time to come, I'm afraid.'


Mr. Hill may have some thoughts. But, as I recall, he uses physical measures as long as possible before converting to dollars.

Don Stewart
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 29 Jun 2017, 08:03:32

Financialization of the economy has distorted the value of dollars so much that nothing really meaningful can be said about energy costs converted from dollar measures. '


Mr. Hill may have some thoughts. But, as I recall, he uses physical measures as long as possible before converting to dollars.

Don Stewart[/quote][/quote]

I would say Financialization has distorted the value of all currencies and a primary positive attribute of the Etp analysis is that its fundamental measurements are physical ones instead of financial ones
“When the last tree is cut down, the last fish eaten and the last stream poisoned, you will realize that you cannot eat money.”
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 29 Jun 2017, 08:42:34

Yoshua wrote:The Fed is trying to imitate something for nothing.

LTO $20 better be true without the Petrodollar. Imagine producing LTO with US energy and steel production, or to pay for imports by actually producing and exporting something in return, or to pay for imports in gold.

When someone talks about selling oil in something other than dollars their nations get bombed like Iraq and Libya and their leders get hanged like Saddam or sodomised to death with a bayonet like Gaddafi, just to make the message clear.

Our governments will protect western values and look after us at any cost ("what ever it takes").

Obviously they can't just bomb Russia, but they can blow up a neighbouring country and impose sanctions to try to get Russia on its knees. We took Russia's girlfriend Ukraine, turned her into a street hooker, smashed up Russia's car and now we want Russia to pay for the damage.

By making sure that China and Saudi Arabia has large dollar reserves that gives them another 4 years of security, even they will to some degree protect the Petrodollar. Chia is today buying oil for yuan that can be converted into gold. Time to blow up North Korea and deal with that crazy dictator ?


Just like death and taxes, so predictable. When all fails here...go tinfoil hat.

shortonoil wrote:Right now we are looking at no more than three years. That should be about the same time that US refineries begin shutting their doors, and the US begins to run short of cash to fund its welfare, surveillance state. The outcome will likely be an immensely costly, and bloody war over a commodity that will soon have little, or no value.

Let's just hope that we have three years!


Someone (Adam?) really should log your predictions.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 29 Jun 2017, 09:58:00

The above function informs us that in 2017 a dollar will be able to buy on average 5191 BTU. 



Perhaps I’m missing something but gasoline has an energy content of 114,000 BTU/gallon. A gallon of gasoline on average is costing $2/US. That means $1 US will purchase a half gallon of gasoline or 70,000 BTUs does it not?
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