Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The Etp Model, Q & A

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Moderator: Pops

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 15 Dec 2016, 12:41:54

pstarr wrote:The supply glut is also a demand dearth. Measuring capacity/inventory is a speculators game. It's like the lotto. The house always wins in the end.

Yep, but our friends here do not concede the demand dearth side of the equation
" Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear, not absence of fear."
User avatar
onlooker
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 5905
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 15 Dec 2016, 13:30:14

"Great summary Yoshua. Only thing I would add is the "glut" inventory full/overcapacity and debt is masking the trend of slowing/stalled economies that is consistent with less Net Energy getting through to the Economy"

A unit of oil no longer supplies enough energy, to power enough economy, to demand a unit of oil. Consequently, inventories go up and the price comes down.

Robbing Peter to pay Paul only works until Peter goes broke. The FED's attempt to raise rates in the face of an ever increasingly insolvent economy is not likely to be a very good idea. Peter is starting to look a little "Peaked"! Maybe they think that they can get Peter's brother (the rest of the world) to pay the bill. Maybe Peter's brother will tell them to stuff it. He never cared much for this brother's profligate behavior; especially since he tried to blow up the house!

Maybe someone has thought this all through; then again, maybe they haven't?
User avatar
shortonoil
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3970
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 15 Dec 2016, 14:12:08

Hey short, leave my family out of this :evil: 8)

New construction (on farmland) of buildings and highways has been the engine of world economies for a century. It's over everywhere for lack of fuel.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 23985
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 15 Dec 2016, 16:33:02

Part 5 of this mega thread can be found,
topic73062.html
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 13017
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby donstewart » Fri 16 Dec 2016, 08:43:58

re: Michael Klare
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2016- ... rld-in-oil

It is interesting to read Michael Klare's article through the lens of the ETP model, with the addition of Trump's willingness to employ tariffs, and my contribution a few days ago in terms of humans ability to make up irrational explanations which fill holes in their 'integrated narrative'.

Tariffs first, since that is pretty simple. If Trump stops imports from outside North America, then Klare's scenario of glut certainly looks less likely. From what Trump has said about 'energy independence', I would not be at all surprised if tariffs are part of the equation.

From the ETP perspective, we end up with falling real incomes (as more expensive sources of oil are required because of the declining imports) and declining industrial activity and lower prices for petroleum products. Of course, the ETP model tells us that all that is going to happen soon enough, regardless of what Trump does.

More broadly, the willingness of people to latch onto any explanation, no matter how unlikely or irrational, is now on full display around the world. From 'Russian hackers' to 'the fall of Aleppo' to 'fighting corruption by ending paper money' and 'demolish the satellites which record climate information'....people are grasping at straws.

Don Stewart
donstewart
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 183
Joined: Fri 16 Sep 2016, 03:37:24

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby tagio » Fri 16 Dec 2016, 09:42:59

Two articles worth reading today:

1.Major kudos to shortonoil, who called it in these pages first, and did so way before Trump named Tillerson as SoS. The Trump Admin will re-align with Russia to secure oil imports for the U.S. so the nation's oil supply is not entangled with the ever-increasingly destabilized Mideast (and hopefully so we can scale back our defense commitments there, husbanding our resources more productively). Deep State advisor and spokesperson (Pentagon side) Jim Rickards has an op-ed in today's Darien Times (h/t Ilargi at the Automatic Earth, who doesn't miss much) explaining why Russia should be our ally in containing China.

Rickards: "The most powerful argument for embracing Russia to checkmate China is energy. The U.S. and Russia are the two largest energy producers in the world. U.S. energy production is set to expand with the support of the Trump administration. Russian production will expand also based in part on initiatives led by Rex Tillerson of Exxon, soon to be Secretary of State. China has few oil and natural gas reserves and relies heavily on dirty forms of coal and some hydropower. The remainder of China’s energy needs is met through imports."

http://www.darientimes.com/79397/rickar ... ps-gambit/

2. Evidence, if it is needed, that central banks will "print money" to buy oilco bonds to support oil cos whose cash flow can't support themselves can be found in an article by Wolf Street: http://wolfstreet.com/2016/12/15/here-a ... ly-buying/ The ECB has been buying Shell bonds, and the article makes clear that while originally everyone thought that ECB bond purchases would all take place on the secondary market, i.e., after some private sucker has first bought the bond and then wanted to unload it for top dollar to someone for whom money is no object, the ECB is also buying bonds directly from the companies via private placements. A model for the future.
tagio
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 24
Joined: Thu 19 May 2016, 18:09:58

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 16 Dec 2016, 09:45:41

Hi Don,

This is the stuff of nightmares! As an engineer, and physical scientist for the majority of my life I have learned to detach my emotional response from the intellectual conclusions that I come to. That does not mean that I am immune to them. We are only human, and that might be our greatest asset, as well as our greatest liability.
User avatar
shortonoil
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3970
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby donstewart » Fri 16 Dec 2016, 11:47:17

@shortonoil

Trump may be a more sophisticated politician in terms of dealing with feelings than most people give him credit for. I previously commented on his abortion stance: the Supreme Court should let the states do whatever they want to do. Trump said in an interview that a woman who wants an abortion may have to go to another state to get it. I remarked that such a posture may be the only way to keep both Alabama and California in the same union. (Similar to the compromises over slavery which allowed the Constitution to be adopted.)

Now consider Michael Klare’s identification of supposed ‘contradictions’ in Trump’s energy program. The ‘contradictions’ arise ONLY if there are federal subsidies and prohibitions that channel consumers to one form of energy over another form of energy. Suppose, for example, that utilities really don’t want to buy coal, and will instead use natural gas, as Klare assets is true. Assume that the federal government is simply letting that dynamic play out. Then the message to people in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Wyoming is simply that the market is voting against them. The message is NOT that some pointy headed bureaucrat in Washington has decided that they will be sacrificed.

Whether Trump is smart enough to figure all this out (I, of course, am sure I am absolutely correct in my assessment!), I don’t know. But I wouldn’t be surprised. I don’t think Michael Klare has it figured out. Neither, sadly, has Ugo Bardi figured it out.

Don Stewart
donstewart
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 183
Joined: Fri 16 Sep 2016, 03:37:24

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 16 Dec 2016, 12:10:46

We are the universe. The universe is reaching inside of us. We are thermodynamic systems, the first ones to become aware of us selves while looking at our selves... the universe.

Yes... the red wine is talking.
Yoshua
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 231
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 16 Dec 2016, 13:34:59

Thanks Tagio,

Very interesting articles; that I missed previously. The US and Russia have no other opinion than to form an energy alliance. That conclusion comes straight out of the energy dynamics of our situation. As the world's only nuclear superpowers, and the world's primary petroleum providers we must either find a way to work together, or we will conclude by exterminating each other. Opinion one looks far more attractive than option two!

We must now also begin the long, tedious process of transitioning to a post petroleum economy. The very essence of civilization, as we have known it, depends on it. Surely, as the sun will rise tomorrow, the age of oil is coming to an end. The way of life that it provided for billions will end with it. There is absolutely no guarantee that a transition can be successfully performed, but the energy equations also provide some element of hope; small as it may be.

To accomplish that transition will require the dismantling of a huge part of our present culture. The part that has been overly empowered by the wealth that was derived from oil. It will not go quietly into the night. It is composed of some of the wealthiest, and most powerful people on the planet. It will be necessary to reduce much of their vast wealth to scrap metal. It is rapidly becoming an untenable liability to the rest of humanity.

Society will also have to learn to tolerate great change. Something that it has historically not been very good at doing. The calliope of discontent will be deafening; but we have no other opinion than to forge onward with no more than scant hope of success. Compared to the road we have been following for the last few centuries, that has been wide and straight by comparison, the road to the future will be winding, and twisting; complete with highway men hiding in the shadows to disrupt our journey.

The world has now removed 86% of the all the petroleum that will ever be extracted using our present technological capabilities. We are extracting what remains at 93 million barrels a day to complete the process. The world is pouring $trillions each year into that endeavor. We are draining ourselves dry to keep a system running that can not be kept running for more than a brief interlude of time.

We have now arrived at the open gates to the future. The fog of time comes waifing through to obscure our vision. We either plunge through into an unknown, or wait until they slam shut for the rest of time we mere mortals will have remaining on this world. Waiting will bring certain death and destruction; the outcome of plunging through is yet unknown!

Which will we choose?

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
User avatar
shortonoil
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3970
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby Physicsnerd » Fri 16 Dec 2016, 16:41:17

Does anybody KNOW, why this ETP forum, deletes all the history and starts over every few weeks?
User avatar
Physicsnerd
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 23
Joined: Sun 31 Jul 2005, 02:00:00

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby Babydoomer » Fri 16 Dec 2016, 16:53:29

I believe it's because it's so popular, and that whenever it has filled 25 pages, a new 'part' is started. Parts 1-5 are still around, just hard to find. Early parts are in the Archives. Most other threads don't get so long!
Babydoomer
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 27
Joined: Tue 10 Mar 2015, 17:57:51

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby Babydoomer » Fri 16 Dec 2016, 16:59:55

Parts 4 and 5 currently in PO forums I see.
Babydoomer
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 27
Joined: Tue 10 Mar 2015, 17:57:51

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby zleo99 » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 05:51:11

Short, do you have an updated chart that you can post http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm showing oil prices since 2013?
zleo99
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 19
Joined: Sun 11 Sep 2016, 02:33:56
Location: Port Elizabeth, South Africa

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby sjn » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 07:10:14

I started this reply a few days ago. Sorry for falling behind! :-)

kublikhan wrote:
godq3 wrote:It's the world energy consumption rate that matters. We have world economy to consume energy, not energy to generate GDP. World GDP is meaningless. GDP only matters on countries level, because is shows what share of world energy consumption goes to a specific country.
Raising energy consumption for it's own sake is not a desired goal. The goal is to provide some benefit to society.
This is an ideology, and/or a rationalisation. Theoretically, according to you own economic theory, economic actors operate in their own self-interest to make money/profit, not out of altruism, or a collective sense of responsibility. Perhaps you believe this isn't the case? According to the Biophysical Model, the only possible purpose behind the biophysical system we call the Economy, is to continue to exist, adapt and grow [or reproduce], just like any other biophysical system. To give it "human" motivations is a projection, it isn't human it doesn't have a brain, a composite mind or will. The invisible hand isn't really there to guide our way to enlightenment. Instead, it seeks to optimise entropy production through the Maximum Power principle.
IE, to use the energy to heat our homes, move our cars, power our gadgets, etc. If we can do those things while at the same time consuming less energy, that is a net benefit to society.
Is it? It's almost certainly a net benefit to you, but unless you spend your savings on energy expenditure on something else (increasing energy use elsewhere) you'll be depriving other economic actors of their business or livelihood.
Less money and resources spent on energy, less co2 emissions generating/consuming the energy, less environmental destruction, etc.
No, this requires less economy, if we're more efficient we can do more (remember Jevons Paradox?), what would stop us using available energy and resources?
If 2 processes both produce identical output, the one that consumed less energy is the more desirable one. Thus it is a good thing if the world's energy intensity is falling.

It's no secret that the energy intensity of developed nations has been falling for some time. But energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product is also falling in developing nations -- and at a faster rate. Gains in industrial energy efficiency are responsible for much of the drop in overall energy intensity in OECD and non-OECD economies, as countries with heavy manufacturing tend to use more GDP per dollar. China alone cut its energy intensity by almost 20 percent between 2006 and 2010.

China’s services sector now makes up a larger portion of the economy than the industrial sector. That shift was one significant factor in China’s energy productivity increasing 133 percent in the past quarter-century.

Energy intensity should continue to drop across much of the globe in the coming years. In 2014, the U.S. and China, the nations with the largest and most energy-intense economies, pledged to joint targets to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The White House has a goal to double energy productivity by 2030.
Developing Nations’ Energy Intensity Down 40% Since 1990

Growth of services does not imply a contraction of the rest of the Economy. In fact the entire purpose of "Services" is to provide SERVICES to the rest of the Economy. It's a extra layer (at a global level) which facilitates growth.
User avatar
sjn
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 1317
Joined: Wed 09 Mar 2005, 03:00:00
Location: UK

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 10:58:37

Babydoomer wrote:I believe it's because it's so popular, and that whenever it has filled 25 pages, a new 'part' is started. Parts 1-5 are still around, just hard to find. Early parts are in the Archives. Most other threads don't get so long!

These two ETP threads contain the best, serious peak oil discussion on the internet. It's like the early days at peakoil.com when I came here to observe and learn. One can measure the value of this site by my silence lol

According to the Biophysical Model, the only possible purpose behind the biophysical system we call the Economy, is to continue to exist, adapt and grow [or reproduce], just like any other biophysical system. To give it "human" motivations is a projection, it isn't human it doesn't have a brain, a composite mind or will. The invisible hand isn't really there to guide our way to enlightenment. Instead, it seeks to optimise entropy production through the Maximum Power principle.

The Biophysical Model of life recognizes that humans are animals, not Gods. Animals can be kind, fierce, protective and generous. A wolf will feed the entire pack to ensure necessary cohesion and hunting success. It's in the genes. It's in ours also.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 23985
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby sjn » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 11:19:27

pstarr, no argument from me. Systems science is inherently non-reductionist. While an individual organism is a biophysical system, it both contains and and operates within other biophysical systems. This can create contradictionary phenomena, and seeming paradoxes given a reductionist approach.
User avatar
sjn
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 1317
Joined: Wed 09 Mar 2005, 03:00:00
Location: UK

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 11:21:08

"It's no secret that the energy intensity of developed nations has been falling for some time. "

Another straw man argument. Energy intensity has not been falling because the number of BTU needed to produce goods and services has been falling, the dollars ability to purchase those BTU has been falling. The energy needed to extract and process minerals has been growing exponentially. The same BS day after day. So, the world is supposed to believe you, and not the EIA and the World Bank. Try writing a book; "How to Set Yourself Up to Look Really Stupid"! It may be a best seller:

http://www.jayhanson.org/MoreCurves.html
Attachments
graph12_7jpg_Page1.jpg
graph12_7jpg_Page1.jpg (62.34 KiB) Viewed 4107 times
User avatar
shortonoil
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3970
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 11:38:39

sjn wrote:pstarr, no argument from me. Systems science is inherently non-reductionist. While an individual organism is a biophysical system, it both contains and and operates within other biophysical systems. This can create contradictionary phenomena, and seeming paradoxes given a reductionist approach.

Why the obvious oil peak/decline is not recognized in the academic and political communities. Those folks are specialists, linear and reductionistic. Can't see the forest for the trees (as per lol).

I like ETP because it puts economics in its place, just a function of biophysical law. Economics can be a useful descriptive science that works for current events. It failed miserably to predict or explain the Greatest Recession. It seems economics can fill in details about what is going on. It's expletive, but is never predictive.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 23985
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 15:30:18

sjn wrote:This is an ideology, and/or a rationalisation. Theoretically, according to you own economic theory, economic actors operate in their own self-interest to make money/profit, not out of altruism, or a collective sense of responsibility. Perhaps you believe this isn't the case? According to the Biophysical Model, the only possible purpose behind the biophysical system we call the Economy, is to continue to exist, adapt and grow [or reproduce], just like any other biophysical system. To give it "human" motivations is a projection, it isn't human it doesn't have a brain, a composite mind or will. The invisible hand isn't really there to guide our way to enlightenment. Instead, it seeks to optimise entropy production through the Maximum Power principle.
I was not arguing altruism. Necessity is the mother of invention. People might be motivated by profit. But if they are not out their serving a need there is not going to be demand for their product. No demand, no products to sell, no revenue, no profits. There need not be a collective sense of responsibility for economic actors to lessen their energy consumption. Energy is a cost. It is in their own self interest to keep costs as low as possible.

sjn wrote:No, this requires less economy, if we're more efficient we can do more (remember Jevons Paradox?), what would stop us using available energy and resources?
Rising costs for energy and resources. Don't forget that our energy and material sources are depleting. As we are forced into deeper ore veins, more marginal oil plays, etc, this drives costs up. This rising costs acts to offset cost savings from greater efficiency. This trend will only get stronger in the future as resources get more scarce/expensive. You can also use government intervention in the market such as taxes, mandates, carbon caps, etc. Higher fuel taxes were very effective in lowering Europe's fuel consumption vs a vis the US's low fuel taxes.

Also, Jevon's Paradox applies more to disruptive technologies. If they are introduced into a mature market you will still see energy savings. And energy costs represent only a fraction of the costs of most goods & services. So if you save money on a primary energy source and then spend that saved money in the general economy, you still saved energy. For example: say oil prices spike back to $100. I want to save some money on my oil heating bill so I super insulate my house. I save $1000 in oil heating costs that winter, or 10 barrels of oil. Now I have $1000 extra to spend in the economy. However energy costs are less than 10% of the costs of the goods and services in the economy. $1000 * 10% = $100 of energy costs, or 1 barrel of oil. So I saved 10 barrels of oil with higher efficiency. However I consumed an additional barrel of oil with the money I saved on energy savings(jevon's paradox). Thus my net savings are 10 - 1 = 9 barrels of oil. I still saved energy despite the additional economic activity.

sjn wrote:Growth of services does not imply a contraction of the rest of the Economy. In fact the entire purpose of "Services" is to provide SERVICES to the rest of the Economy. It's a extra layer (at a global level) which facilitates growth.
I agree. And it facilitates that growth for a lower energy cost per unit of growth. By 2035 the global economy is projected to double. However because of efficiency gains energy consumption is expected to only grow by a third.

In the base case, world GDP more than doubles, but unprecedented gains in energy efficiency mean that the energy required to fuel the higher level of activity grows by only around a third over the Outlook.
BP Energy Outlook
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3527
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Illinois

Next

Return to Peak oil studies, reports & models

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests