Thanks for posting this Lotrfan. I get a kick out of the last response "muster of macroeonomic science". I could never figure out how predicting the past by adding equations to philosophy creates science.
Anyway I think you hit the right notes. One point I'd make is real prices for Brent (now the world benchmark) are now higher, on a moving, yearly averaged basis, than at any time in history – for two years running.
The only thing I think you missed are mitigations that will take place and are taking place. Fewer mile driven per capita as well as total; increasing vehicle milage, greater interest in mass transit, increased demand for high density/walkable neighborhoods and multifamily housing and shifting generational trends such less vehicle ownership among younger demos.
These are a things that are in fact happening today, some as a direct result of constricted supply and higher prices and some in combination with other trends.
P.S. I just skimmed, if I missed those items I apologize.
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