Peak oil: implications for growth in the 21st century

[lotrfan55345]

Macroeconomic impacts of peak oil: implications for growth in the 21st century

Here's a paper I wrote for my capstone project for my environmental studies minor. Waiting for feedback from my advisers to see if it's worth submitting for publication. In the meantime, enjoy~~ (and give me feedback!)

http://www.andrew.cmu.edu/user/kevinalt ... %20oil.pdf

[ralfy]

Thanks for sharing that!

[lotrfan55345]

Here are some responses I've received from my peers:

I think you are going through dangerous territory by associating high oil prices with the 2008 financial crisis. It might or might not have been a contributing factor, but it is certainly not a first-order factor, at least not on the crisis as it developed in Europe or North America

.

There seem to be a lot of people getting all worked up on this OMG we need to stop thinking on the economic growth paradigm, but there is no empirical evidence to back this bold assumption. At least evidence that would pass the muster of macroeconomic science.

Sometimes, I feel like they didn't even read the paper...

[Pops]

Thanks for posting this Lotrfan. I get a kick out of the last response "muster of macroeonomic science". I could never figure out how predicting the past by adding equations to philosophy creates science.

Anyway I think you hit the right notes. One point I'd make is real prices for Brent (now the world benchmark) are now higher, on a moving, yearly averaged basis, than at any time in history – for two years running.

The only thing I think you missed are mitigations that will take place and are taking place. Fewer mile driven per capita as well as total; increasing vehicle milage, greater interest in mass transit, increased demand for high density/walkable neighborhoods and multifamily housing and shifting generational trends such less vehicle ownership among younger demos.

These are a things that are in fact happening today, some as a direct result of constricted supply and higher prices and some in combination with other trends.

P.S. I just skimmed, if I missed those items I apologize.

[ralfy]

Kevin Drum says something about oil and the 2008 crisis here:

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2 ... ned-future

Also,

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5230

http://endofcapitalism.com/2009/02/20/p ... ic-crisis/

The longer article referred to in the second link can be found here:

http://akarlin.com/2009/02/18/oily-orig ... ic-crisis/