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China's Five-Year Plan

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China's Five-Year Plan

Unread postby Graeme » Sat 15 Dec 2012, 17:00:39

China's Five-Year Plan: Rewriting Its Reputation With A Focus On Emerging Industries

This summer, China‘s State Council announced its “12th Five-Year Plan on National Emerging Industries of Strategic Importance.” Behind the lengthy title is a single initiative with far-reaching implications: The looming economic giant has chosen seven key emerging technologies on which to focus its economic might.

These seven industries, many of which have yet to receive substantial stateside support, will become the focal points for China’s state economic development and will create new markets for American exporters of energy solutions.

New & Alternative Fuels for the Automotive Industry: Concerns over the boom in car ownership led the city of Guangzhou to limit new license plates through auctions and lotteries. With fuel and pollution worries growing, other municipalities are expected to follow suit. As China’s burgeoning middle class rushes to get behind the wheel, the state is playing the long game by looking to clean-burning cars.

Information Technology: China’s tech industry is fast outgrowing the aging technology infrastructure, and the number of professionals skilled enough to take on demanding IT jobs is perilously low. To keep up with its tech-savvy neighbors Japan and South Korea, let alone the U.S., China will attempt to pump considerable resources into multiple facets of its IT sector.

Biotechnology: An obvious choice given the agricultural and medical needs of a massive populace, the biotech sector will see considerable funding over the next five years.

High-End Manufacturing: Following this somewhat general resolution that aims to “green up” the production of everything from aviation to rail travel to consumer goods, both Chinese companies as well as foreign entities with manufacturing centers in China will find themselves increasingly pressured to improve their manufacturing standards.

New Materials: A vague-sounding pronouncement, which covers the fabrication of advanced composites and next-generation building materials designed to reduce the environmental impact of growing China’s basic infrastructure.

New Energy: A broad label for a resolution devoting increased attention and state resources to the development of nuclear, wind, solar and biomass energy production.

Environmental Protection: In perhaps the most sweeping piece of the plan, China aims to change its reputation as one of the globe’s least environmentally conscious nations by pouring resources into stewardship initiatives like national recycling programs, emission reduction and a more robust environmental protection apparatus.

According to the brief, China aims to increase the share of these seven industries’ total added value to its GDP to 8% by 2015 and 15% by 2020.

Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
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Re: China's Five-Year Plan

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Sun 16 Dec 2012, 05:25:43

They seem to be more switched on and able to implement change than the West appears.
Centralised planning seems to be an advantage
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Re: China's Five-Year Plan

Unread postby americandream » Mon 17 Dec 2012, 00:01:11

Sustainable infinite growth (capitalism). Like organic heroin, it has gotta be good for you.
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Re: China's Five-Year Plan

Unread postby radon » Mon 17 Dec 2012, 00:25:54

Shaved Monkey wrote:Centralised planning seems to be an advantage

Yes, several GULAGS, plus hunger here and there, and the problem of overshoot is solved.
Not that Russia has centralised planning these days, but the government in Moscow also produced a list of industries prioritised for development a few years ago. So far the single beneficiary has been the real estate industry, which was not included in this list. You do not really need a centralised economy in order to write a slide with seven bullet points.
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Re: China's Five-Year Plan

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 17 Dec 2012, 22:12:18
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Re: China's Five-Year Plan

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 15 Apr 2013, 07:14:41

It is all well and good for the PRC to talk about making positive changes and I have no doubt some changes will be made. However they have built an enormous amount of their industrial base around the use of coal, everything from plastics to fertilizers are coal based inputs in China and they are building even more as we discuss their future. Even if they decided to build all future manufacturing around completely green technology they would not throw away the investment in the existing infrastructure. That means that for the foreseeable future the PRC will be a big Coal user and nothing is going to change that any time soon.
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Re: China's Five-Year Plan

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 15 Apr 2013, 09:50:25

Tanada – I see it pretty much the same as you do. And we should remember that while they may be “communists” they are still politicians and thus no better than ours when it comes to spinning. LOL. Also, I’m not a China expert by any means but from the energy perspective they’ve been working on a plan design on a much longer time span than 5 years IMHO. From the bits and pieces I’ve observed their plan has changed little in the last 15 years. In one form or another the Chinese govt has been tying up foreign energy resources for at least that long. During the same time the US govt hasn’t tied up 1 bbl of oil for us. At least not officially.

As you imply: there’s great benefit in being the govt and the industries all rolled in together to a fair degree. Which is why I’ll occasionally toss out my MADOR concept: “Mutually Assured Distribution Of Resources. The US and China may be the big dogs in the fight for what energy resources are left on the planet. But there’s also something of a symbiotic relationship between the two IMHO. They like to sell us their stuff (which the 5 year plan indicates they are trying to expand) and we like them to finance some of our debt. China is also clearly trying to become THE influential military power in the region. The US may not like all the strategic moves China is making in Asia but I doubt we have much appetite to try to compete with them. At least not directly.

So if the Big Dogs get to eat first the rest of the global pack will have to settle for what’s left.
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