shortonoil wrote:. Any Reservoir Engineer will tell you that initial estimates are almost always optimistic. They spend a lot of time tweaking and testing to get accurate projections for a field!
Found this little gem, indicating yet again that Shorty doesn't have access to said reservoir engineer. But the USGS does, and did, when they built their estimates showing that there are reasons why reserve estimates increase on average, they don't go backwards after all this "tweaking" that Shorty knows nothing about.
How many other little giveaways did you leave back there in the past when you were building your carnival act Shorty? And how many of them were found so quickly by those Royal Academy folks that they kicked your paper right out of the room? Only takes a single reservoir engineer to spot this mistake, and we know now, 5 years later, that you screwed the pooch in far more ways than one when it comes to your pretend oil field knowledge.
Shortonoil wrote:Determining reservoir status for the world (48,000 fields) is in an altogether different league. One that is probably outside the scope of conventional methodology for the level of accuracy that we are seeking here.
You aren't seeking accuracy, you are seeking an answer you can point at and pretend it is doom.
And by "different league" you must mean folks like I referenced for BahamasEd, because some of them are doing just that, churning through every field on the planet, every scientific publication of the USGS, every piece of cost information, currency differences, refinery locations and transport costs between them, demand centers and changes in everything from elasticity to accounting for fleet efficiency standards and growth in China.
That isn't a different league compared to your claptrap short, that is on a different planet. You should try harder, and you could start by finding a reservoir engineer who can tell you about all the screwups you made in your initial assumptions. Besides the logic flaws, cherry picked data and ignorance of basic USGS pubs that you put in there.