EIA AEO 2012 Early Release

[Pops]

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/pdf/0383er(2012 ).pdf

The U.S. Energy Information Administration Monday predicted that as global economic activity rebounds and capacity in the United States grows, world oil consumption will outstrip supply from producers outside of the OPEC bloc, causing oil prices to hit the $120 mark in four years.

In its 2012 Annual Energy Outlook, EIA updated projections for U.S. energy markets through 2035. It estimates domestic crude production will hit 6.7 million barrels per day by 2020, a level not seen since 1994, compared to 5.5 million bpd in 2010.

https://mninews.deutsche-boerse.com/ind ... s-non-opec

[Pops]

Prices for crude oil in 2011 remained generally in a range between $85 and $110 per barrel. In 2011, WTI prices were lower than Brent prices because of pipeline capacity constraints that prevented complete arbitrage between WTI and Brent prices. Real imported sweet crude oil prices (2010 dollars) in the AEO2012 Reference case rise to $120 per barrel in 2016 (Figure 5) as pipeline capacity from Cushing, Oklahoma, to the Gulf Coast increases, the world economy recovers, and global demand grows more rapidly than the available supplies of liquids from producers outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

In 2035, the average real price of crude oil in the Reference case is about $145 per barrel in 2010 dollars, or about $230 per barrel in nominal dollars

This seems a little schizophrenic, oil rises $20 by 2016 as "global demand grows more rapidly than the available supplies" but then over the ensuing 20 years it increases less than a dollar a year?

[kublikhan]

First, despite big gains in energy efficiency and increases in “renewables” (wind, solar, biofuels), fossil fuels will remain the mainstay of America’s energy system for years. In 2010, fossil fuel represented 83 percent of U.S. energy consumption, with oil at 37 percent, natural gas at 25 percent and coal at 21 percent. Although total energy use grows only 10 percent between 2010 and 2035, the fossil-fuel share stays high at 77 percent in 2035. Oil is 32 percent, natural gas 25 percent and coal 20 percent.

We’ve become vastly more efficient. In 2010, it took about half the energy to produce a dollar’s worth of output (gross domestic product) as in 1980. The EIA expects these trends to continue; energy use per dollar of GDP is projected to drop 42 percent from 2010 to 2035.

Meanwhile, domestic energy production is rising and — astonishingly — import dependence is rapidly falling. In 2010, oil imports accounted for 49 percent of U.S. consumption, down from 60 percent in 2005. By 2035, imports could decline to 36 percent, projects the EIA.

But we don’t view energy this way. We clamor for grander goals: becoming energy “independent” or stopping global warming. And these — as the EIA report also shows — are unreachable anytime soon, if ever. Barring vast new discoveries, we won’t produce enough oil to meet our needs. Indeed, the EIA’s assumption about biofuels, which roughly triple by 2035, could be too optimistic. If so, oil imports would exceed EIA projections. (In 2035, the EIA expects biofuels to account for 12 percent of liquid fuel use, up from 4 percent in 2010.)

The same is true of global warming. It’s hard to see how, under plausible assumptions, greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced substantially in the foreseeable future. The pressures of population and economic growth overwhelm improved energy efficiency or shifts to “green” energy. For example, renewable fuels (wind, solar, geothermal, biomass) are projected to more than double by 2035. Still, including hydropower, they account for only 16 percent of electricity generation in 2035. Coal and natural gas dominate. In 2035, emissions of carbon dioxide — the largest greenhouse gas — are reckoned to be 3 percent higher than in 2010. This contrasts with the declines of 50 percent to 80 percent by midcentury that some scientists say are needed to stabilize global temperatures.

A brighter energy future?

pdf: EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2012

[Pops]

Marcellus natural gas estimate falls by 66%, total nat gas falls by 40%

In the AEO2012 Reference case, the estimated unproved technically recoverable resource (TRR) of shale gas for the United States is 482 trillion cubic feet, substantially below the estimate of 827 trillion cubic feet in AEO2011. The decline largely reflects a decrease in the estimate for the Marcellus shale, from 410 trillion cubic feet to 141 trillion cubic feet. Both EIA and USGS have recently made significant revisions to their TRR estimates for the Marcellus shale. Drilling in the Marcellus accelerated rapidly in 2010 and 2011, so that there is far more information available today than a year ago.

[dorlomin]

They dont seem to have much of a plan for dropping motor gasoline consumption. Flat till 2033.

Hmmm Im going to guess that number will be wrong.