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Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 13 Feb 2018, 15:19:54

(Mods, please merge if a thread on this was already started and I missed it...thanks)

All crops are destroyed, sounds worse than Puerto Rico.

https://www.rt.com/news/418704-tonga-cy ... struction/

“Here are some photos we were sent from relatives and friends in Tonga. It was a difficult night, and the road to recovery will be long. But we are grateful for our strong communities..." #CycloneGita ”

https://twitter.com/350Pacific/status/9 ... 1699636224
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CAT 5 Cyclones 2018

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 22 Mar 2018, 04:18:18

First Category 5 Storm of 2018: Tropical Cyclone Marcus Northwest of Australia
Dr. Jeff Masters · March 21, 2018, 5:09 PM EDT

Image

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/first ... -australia

Above: Tropical Cyclone Marcus as seen at 6Z (2 am EDT) March 21, 2018, off the northwest coast of Australia. At the time, Marcus was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
The first Category 5 storm of 2018 is Tropical Cyclone Marcus, which intensified to a low-end Cat 5 with 160 mph
*************
Is it over the Great Barrier? :cry:
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 11 May 2018, 14:26:46

Hurricane season may be even worse in 2018 after a harrowing 2017

8O

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... owing-2017

The US may have to brace itself for another harrowing spate of hurricanes this year, with forecasts of an active 2018 season coming amid new research that shows powerful Atlantic storms are intensifying far more rapidly than they did 30 years ago...

...natural variation will combine with escalating warming in the oceans and atmosphere, caused by the burning of fossil fuels by humans, to produce stronger hurricanes in the future. A warm ocean surface, combined with consistent wind patterns, contribute to the formation of fiercer, if not more numerous, hurricanes.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 11 May 2018, 20:21:38

Will be interesting with our boat on the hard in Grenada. GrenDa is usually a safe spot, South of normal hurricane alley. But it does get hit occassionally. About once every 50 years.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 23 May 2018, 08:11:45

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... estructive


Global warming made Hurricane Harvey more destructive

Hot oceans fueled Hurricane Harvey, generating more intense rainfall


This was already pretty clear last year, but scientific attribution studies to unequivocally show that a single event was influenced in a certain direction by GW take a lot of time, and this is further evidence of what kind of mayhem we are heading into (and of course much worse), probably even this year again.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 23 May 2018, 12:54:44

Newfie wrote:Will be interesting with our boat on the hard in Grenada. GrenDa is usually a safe spot, South of normal hurricane alley. But it does get hit occassionally. About once every 50 years.


IIRC, that means a boat in a cradle for (at least) hull scraping/painting. Is that all, or something more serious?
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 23 May 2018, 16:48:54

Yeah, boat out of the water, sitting in stands, will get strapped down. Sounds like there is a bi of weather brewing in the Gulf of Mexico. Not likely to be a hurricane but maybe a T.S.

We’ve been doing maintenance for the last week. Lots of little rust soots here and there. Some interior painting. Change oil. Argue with the yard staff about some welding work they are to do. Take the sails down and to the loft for normal repairs. Other little odds and ends. Been busy.

We got done today, but still have a couple of weeks work when we come back in the fall. Then scrape and pain bottom and fix what broke while we were not sing it! That ain’t fair, that stuff breaks when not being used, but it’s reality.

Bit all in all we have had very few problems on the trip. And exhaust mixer elbow but I had a spare. December 15 to now, all pretty good. I happy

We fly to Philly for a couple of weeks on Friday. Then we drive to Newfoundland for he summer and I get to paint and fix that boat before launching. At least I replaced the deck and painted everything last year.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 23 May 2018, 16:52:34

Disturbance 1: 0% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 8:00 am EDT Wed May 23 2018 ...

A broad surface low centered near the coast of northeastern Belize
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and into
the Florida Straits. Little development is expected during the
next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds and proximity to
the Yucatan Peninsula. However, environmental conditions are then
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression could form this weekend over the eastern or
central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the Cayman Islands
during the next few days, and over much of Florida and the
northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information on the
heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 24 May 2018, 15:19:16

I’m betting they have a 35-65% chance of being almost right.

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center predict a 35 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season for the upcoming hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30.


http://gcaptain.com/noaa-predicts-near- ... n-in-2018/
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Fri 25 May 2018, 08:04:37

On Friday, the disturbance heading for the Gulf was being given a 90 percent chance of developing into a depression or storm during the next two days and a 90 percent chance during the next five days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Fri 25 May 2018, 10:45:03

Depression is now Subtropical Storm Alberto:

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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 25 May 2018, 18:22:58

“In the past 120 yrs, just 5 hurricane-strength cyclones have made landfall in Oman—1898, 1959, 2007, 2010—and today. (Chapala, in 2015, was the last to hit the Arabian Peninsula—and the only one ever to hit Yemen)
So... 6 total in this part of the world, 4 in the past 11 years.”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status ... 3158267905
“By the end of the century, @MIT research suggests that this trend toward more frequent cyclones in the Arabian Peninsula could spread to the Persian Gulf -- where there has never been a hurricane-strength storm in recorded history.
http://news.mit.edu/2015/grey-swan-cycl ... surge-0831

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status ... 4340005888
“Live blog from Oman -- the latest on #MekunuCyclone:
http://timesofoman.com/article/135085

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status ... 6793968640
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