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Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby GoghGoner » Mon 01 Jan 2018, 08:44:43

Not sure why the 2017 thread is locked but we finished out the year with a new record. The first year in modern records to end with extent below 12 million km^2. I haven't been following this thread lately but I knew something funny would be happening up there since my town has sucked up all of the cold air in the globe.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1837.0;attach=56477;image
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 04:42:13

Image
The state of the sea ice is behind this. On January 1, 2018, Arctic sea ice extent was at record low for the time of the year. The smaller the extent, the less sunlight gets reflected back into space and is instead absorbed in the Arctic.

At this time of year, though, hardly any sunshine is reaching the Arctic. So, what triggered this destabilization? As the image below indicates, year-to-date average Arctic sea ice volume has been at record low in 2017, which means that there has been very little sea ice underneath the surface throughout 2017.
=>

Image
http://arctic-news.blogspot.de
***********************
The year 2018 will be brutal .....

Arctic Methan Apocalypse looms
I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 08:52:05

Compared to the average of the 1980s, we have 2 million km^2 less in extent which is roughly the size of three Texases. Lots of open water which will do what? Increase moisture, change wind patterns, and something tickles me about wave energy (seems like the sea ice cover would calm the ocean but I don't know what that means at all).
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 09:26:53

M_B_S wrote: As the image below indicates, year-to-date average Arctic sea ice volume has been at record low in 2017, which means that there has been very little sea ice underneath the surface throughout 2017.

When is there ever sea ice "Underneath the surface"?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 09:33:29

GoghGoner wrote:Compared to the average of the 1980s, we have 2 million km^2 less in extent which is roughly the size of three Texases. Lots of open water which will do what? Increase moisture, change wind patterns, and something tickles me about wave energy (seems like the sea ice cover would calm the ocean but I don't know what that means at all).


Wave action means much greater rates of beachfront erosion in places where the permafrost along the coast is melting. Up until recently for the last 125,000 years more or less the glaciers and permafrost have compressed and stabilized the coastlines. As the sea ice has retreated peak summer sun has warmed the surface waters to higher temperatures and wave action washes these warmer waters up on the beach, when they increase the rate of surface melting and also wash the newly melted surface layer out into the shallow coastal waters exposing the next later of permafrost stabilized soil. The newly exposed soil gets washed over with warmer than freezing sea waves and also bombarded with 24/7 peak summer sun on its usually dark colored surface causing additional melting/slumping/washing away of the surface.

Obviously this is less effective in winter time, but so long as the water remains even a little above freezing it warms the permafrost when it washes ashore. In the winter the competing cooling from the wind carries away the added heat, but some of it is transmitted below the very top layer making the melting season in 2018 initially a small fraction faster because that permafrost will be closer to the freezing point when the sun rises.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 14:19:05

vtsnowedin wrote:
M_B_S wrote: As the image below indicates, year-to-date average Arctic sea ice volume has been at record low in 2017, which means that there has been very little sea ice underneath the surface throughout 2017.

When is there ever sea ice "Underneath the surface"?

Image
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 14:34:41

M_B_S wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
M_B_S wrote: As the image below indicates, year-to-date average Arctic sea ice volume has been at record low in 2017, which means that there has been very little sea ice underneath the surface throughout 2017.

When is there ever sea ice "Underneath the surface"?

Image

An iceberg calved off a glacier is not sea ice.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 23:28:56

Welll, it's ice, and it's in the sea. It's not what was traditionally mostly counted as sea ice.

But then 'traditional' sea ice is pretty much a thing of the past.

When about half of the sea ice was old, five-plus-meter-thick stuff, yeah, a lot of it would have been submerged. But that stuff pretty much doesn't exist anymore, replaced by not only much thinner and newer ice, but much weaker, slushier stuff, too.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 09:11:27

dohboi wrote:But then 'traditional' sea ice is pretty much a thing of the past.


It is not all gone yet.
http://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod/page3.xhtml
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 09:39:34

Your link doesn't work for me, vt.

But I am well aware of official level of Arctic sea ice extent (lowest on record for the New Year).

What I am saying is that the quality of most of that ice is markedly different from ten years ago and more, not just the quality. Many veteran researchers have attested to as much in terms of its mushiness, and various measures have determined that it is on average very much thinner over all.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dissident » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 10:44:52

Are we still at the stage of arguing over the quality of the sea ice? God what mind numbing inanity. It has been established already that the current Arctic sea ice is much more salty than the norm 20+ years ago. That is because the multi-year ice has nearly disappeared and brine rejection occurs slowly with the oldest ice having the lowest salt content.

1) Saltier sea ice is more brittle and easier to melt.

2) Saltier sea ice is changing the Arctic near surface halogen chemistry (Bromine, Iodine related) in a quantifiable manner.

https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/6623 ... 3-2013.pdf
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 11:04:34

dohboi wrote:Your link doesn't work for me, vt.


Try this.
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS56S ... 815714.pdf
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 07 Jan 2018, 21:33:23

There is finally a weeks worth of data on the graph which lets us see the trend line for 2018. Sigh, record low. I wonder where August will find us on this data set?

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/char ... ice-graph/
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 07 Jan 2018, 22:00:06

Thanks, T and vt
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 24 Jan 2018, 16:33:41

This is more Arctic than sea ice, but important--

What diseases could be released from thawing tundra?

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... the-arctic
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 24 Jan 2018, 18:25:26

Lowest Arctic sea ice extent by date, far below anything yet seen.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... egular.png
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 10:38:44

More on potential re-emergent diseases (from Anne at asif):

The reconstitution of the Spanish flu virus from a recovered frozenSiberian cadaver was reported in Science in 2005:

Abstract
The pandemic influenza virus of 1918–1919 killed an estimated 20 to 50 million people worldwide. With the recent availability of the complete 1918 influenza virus coding sequence, we used reverse genetics to generate an influenza virus bearing all eight gene segments of the pandemic virus to study the properties associated with its extraordinary virulence. In stark contrast to contemporary human influenza H1N1 viruses, the 1918 pandemic virus had the ability to replicate in the absence of trypsin, caused death in mice and embryonated chicken eggs, and displayed a high-growth phenotype in human bronchial epithelial cells. Moreover, the coordinated expression of the 1918 virus genes most certainly confers the unique high-virulence phenotype observed with this pandemic virus.


Characterization of the Reconstructed 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic Virus

Terrence M. Tumpey &c

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/310/5745/77

And the US Government takes it seriously, at length here, including discussion of biohazard precautions: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/1918flupandemic.htm
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 29 Jan 2018, 16:51:50

Arctic weirding goes into overdrive, with shattered ice and temperature records
https://mashable.com/2018/01/26/arctic- ... cwBG1u7Lqb
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 09:14:03

For the second day in a row, NSIDC reports a century break, down 114K(!) How many times have there been a century break in February and how many times have there been two consecutive days with a century break?


There have only been five century+ decrease in NSIDC ASI extent over the past ten Februarys, and only ten total for the month since 2000; two of those have occurred over the past two days, so it's definitely a rare thing. There have been no back-to-back century+ decreases since 2000; in fact, only 2007 saw more than one for the entire month.

thanks to Jim Pettit at ASIF

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... egular.png

NSIDC says we are 134k below 2017, and the lowest in history for this date. With an Arctic warming event set to continue for the next 10 days.

GFS_ANOM-2m_7D-ForecastMean.jpg
GFS_ANOM-2m_7D-ForecastMean.jpg (131.74 KiB) Viewed 22631 times
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 09:46:16

Thanks, Cid. Pettite is an international treasure!
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