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Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

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Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 31 Aug 2017, 20:40:00

017 8:33 pm 

Irma Turning Into Monster Hurricane: “Highest Windspeed Forecasts I’ve Ever Seen”
http://tinyurl.com/y82hddk6

“Hurricane Irma continues to strengthen much faster than pretty much any computer model predicted as of yesterday or even this morning. Per the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) latest update, Irma is currently a Cat-3 storm with sustained winds of 115 mph but is expected to strengthen to a devastating Cat-5 with winds that could top out at 180 mph or more.”

“Longer term computer models still vary widely but suggest that Irma will make landfall in the U.S. either in the Gulf of Mexico or Florida. Meteorological Scientist Michael Ventrice of the Weather Channel is forecasting windspeeds of up to 180 mph, which he described as the “highest windspeed forecasts I’ve ever seen in my 10 yrs of Atlantic hurricane forecasting.”

“Meanwhile, the Weather Channel has the “most likely” path of Irma passing directly over Antigua, Puerto Rico and Domincan Republic toward the middle of next week.”
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 31 Aug 2017, 20:56:57

Yup, she's a monster. But may just drift harmlessly across the Atlantic...We'll see
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 31 Aug 2017, 21:12:02

I think I spoke too soon. Last time I looked, most of the long term projections had it turning sharply north and heading out to sea. Now the spaghetti projections almost all hit the US anywhere from TX (!) to Maine. And here's what meteorologist Michael Ventrice has to say about those projections:

These are the highest windspeed forecasts I've ever seen in my 10 yrs of Atlantic hurricane forecasting. #Irma is another retiree candidate.


If it hits Miami or NYC, the one-two punch of two devastating storms in a row could really sink the US economy.

I don't even want to think about Texas getting wupped again. I'm sure ROCK doesn't either!
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 01 Sep 2017, 01:02:11

Worste case scenario, Irma swings up Atlantic coast and gets jammed up west of Greenland dumping 20-120 inches of warm tropical rain on early autum ice sheet that has no snow cover.
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 01 Sep 2017, 02:24:20

Another hurricane heading our way and gas shortages are already starting to appear up, and down the East Coast. Some reports are giving a month to get refineries and the Colonial up and running again, and that was before this new problem arrived. Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.

http://www.chron.com/business/energy/ar ... 164762.php

http://www.wesh.com/article/gas-shortag ... ts/4432325
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 01 Sep 2017, 14:56:50

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurri ... it-heading
Hurricane Irma is a mighty storm but where is it headed?
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Observerbrb » Fri 01 Sep 2017, 15:46:05

onlooker wrote:https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-mighty-storm-where-it-heading
Hurricane Irma is a mighty storm but where is it headed?


Hello onlooker, I'll posting information regarding Hurricane Irma in this post:

I would say that chances are that 40% out to sea, 60% inland, according from what I've seen. Next days should clear up the situation.

Image

This is what some analysts say at this moment:

As pointed out in the post, to be a major hurricane out in that region is impressive enough, but the fact that Irma won't be heading into the subtropics or for an early recurve really makes this interesting.

If Irma is strengthening again, she could possibly become a Cat 4 east of 40W, on a westwardly track toward some sort of land area.

Nothing like that has ever happened. Irma has the biggest potential to become the strongest storm the Atlantic has ever seen.


DeepSeaRising • 5 minutes ago
NHC taking so much time due to RI immediately after eyewall replacement, next outlook likely going to be calling for a 160-170 mph category five from NHC.
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Observerbrb » Fri 01 Sep 2017, 15:50:33

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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 01 Sep 2017, 15:51:03

Thanks Observer, I also read something to the effect that no hurricane had ever formed so potently so early in a geographic standpoint as Irma. We are seeing some rather odd and ominous activity on the part of hurricanes and the entire weather system.
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby GHung » Fri 01 Sep 2017, 16:04:49

According to some analysts I've seen, so far Irma is following a path (including projections) remarkably close to the 1938 New England hurricane (AKA: Long Island Express).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_ ... _hurricane

1938
Image

Irma
Image

Mostly speculation at this point, but with the Colonial down, any landfall on the east coast would be double trouble.
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Observerbrb » Fri 01 Sep 2017, 16:58:24

Image

It's not looking nice for Leeward islands

................


However, here they are spared

Image
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Azothius » Fri 01 Sep 2017, 17:20:18

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/31/us/hurricane-irma-forecast-weather/index.html

The European model, or ECMWF, and the American GFS model have had some notable showdowns before, most notably with Hurricane Sandy.

With Sandy, the ECMWF correctly predicted a landfall in the Northeast nearly a week ahead, while the GFS continually kept the storm offshore in what became a major black eye for the US weather-modeling industry. There have been other examples in which the GFS model has outperformed its European counterpart, such as with a few major snowstorms in the Northeast.

Right now, the GFS has Irma taking a more northerly track that curves to the north before it reaches the Caribbean, thus making a US landfall much less likely.

The European model keeps the storm tracking further west and into the Caribbean by the middle of next week.


see images in the article
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 02 Sep 2017, 17:24:50

Anybody, have a good update on the latest track of Irma. I have been hearing it is headed for the East Coas of US. My, my that is where yours truly lives. yikes
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Observerbrb » Sat 02 Sep 2017, 18:07:00

onlooker wrote:Anybody, have a good update on the latest track of Irma. I have been hearing it is headed for the East Coas of US. My, my that is where yours truly lives. yikes


I don't think this has happened before in the modern history

1- A record low pressure hurricane over the Atlantic (GFS shows 874 mb, 2nd in history, 1st in Atlantic)
2- A massive 4 CAT hurricane making landfall over Virginia/NJ (or upwards)

Image

Image

It's too early to tell onlooker, but it seems that right now models are converging towards a landfall over the Carolinas/Virginia, but the whole US eastern coast should watch out. This situation is like throwing a dart
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby GHung » Sat 02 Sep 2017, 18:51:53

Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Cog » Sat 02 Sep 2017, 21:44:25

Should have a much better approximate track by Tuesday.
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 02 Sep 2017, 22:15:20

Right now, the best estimate of the best model shows it showing up in south Fla in 8 days... but, yeah, nothing more than about 5 days out is likely to be very accurate...

stay tuned
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 03 Sep 2017, 00:19:52

The latest GFS model run has Irma growing to be the strongest hurricane ever seen in the Atlantic and making a direct hit on Washington DC

878-mb-storm-the-model-forecast-for-irma-that-no-one-wants-to-see-happen

If it hits DC can we rename it "Hurricane Trump"?

Image
Hurricane Trump

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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Cog » Sun 03 Sep 2017, 05:15:06

Let's not rebuild DC if it ends up being destroyed. We would all be much better off.
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 03 Sep 2017, 06:55:07

You can bet because it is their own behinds FEMA will be their early and in mass haha :-D
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