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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postPosted: Mon 21 May 2018, 13:45:01
by Outcast_Searcher
pstarr wrote:Yes Outcaste, compared to geologic times scales, today's sea level rise and global warming is miniscule.
Image
That little bit of red is the hockey stick of today's global warming. It's insignificant.

Ah, the mathematically impaired. Now extrapolate the rate of the rising for the past couple of decades over hundreds of years. Now factor in that it's accelerating.

Miniscule, that is not, even if they didn't teach you any math at Stoner U.

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postPosted: Mon 21 May 2018, 14:04:06
by pstarr
jedrider wrote:Pstarr, minimal unless we break out of our current regimen. Oops, already done.

Record shows SL can R quite rapidly.

Who cares?

Extra co2 has already greened the planet. Give me that 1200ppm. It's already been great for our economy here

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postPosted: Tue 22 May 2018, 10:56:53
by dohboi
Worst-case climate change scenario is even worse than we thought

https://www.newscientist.com/article/21 ... e-thought/
“Our estimates indicate that, due to higher than assumed economic growth rates, there is a greater than 35 per cent probability that year 2100 emissions concentrations will exceed those given by RCP8.5,” says Peter Christensen of the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.


Also, see:

https://robertscribbler.com/2018/05/21/ ... ithout-it/

https://robertscribbler.com/2018/05/21/ ... enewables/

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postPosted: Tue 22 May 2018, 13:43:42
by KaiserJeep
The worst case scenario is extremely unlikely, as is the best case scenario.

However, given the food sources we actually have today, plus the myriad ways that we use FF energy to produce, process, transport, and preserve foods, I think that I can defend the math that we can (at the worst) feed 1 Billion people, and (at the best) feed the 3 Billion humans that Tanada has calculated using modern food crops and modern agrarian methods, without FF's. Unfortunately we ALREADY HAVE 7.6+ Billion humans, and are likely to have 9-12 Billion before we run out of FF's to burn and make food. That means that running out of FF's and cheap FF energy will all by itself, kill somewhere in the range of 6.6 to 11 Billion humans.

dohboi, it is up to you to build a convincing case that we must cease consuming all acessible and affordable FF's, to avoid even worse consequences than that. Nothing you have said, and every argument you have ever made, has failed to convince me that the impacts of CC/AGW are in fact WORSE than the consequences of the most likely scenario, which is we "burn, baby, burn" until we can no longer afford to make the energy we need that way.

If you manage to make your case, I will then discuss ways of bringing that about. But you have so far failed.

Hint: Starting from the assumption that you are correct, and then arguing that the evidence overwhelmingly supports your theory (or more properly, your erroneous pre-judgement), has nothing whatsoever to do with the scientific method.

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postPosted: Tue 22 May 2018, 19:13:02
by dohboi
Easy...everyone grow their own food! :-D

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postPosted: Tue 22 May 2018, 20:43:29
by dissident
dohboi wrote: Worst-case climate change scenario is even worse than we thought

https://www.newscientist.com/article/21 ... e-thought/
“Our estimates indicate that, due to higher than assumed economic growth rates, there is a greater than 35 per cent probability that year 2100 emissions concentrations will exceed those given by RCP8.5,” says Peter Christensen of the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.


Also, see:

https://robertscribbler.com/2018/05/21/ ... ithout-it/

https://robertscribbler.com/2018/05/21/ ... enewables/


I think it is rather clear that CO2 emissions are a proxy for entropy generated by human activity (economy, etc.). CO2 emissions will always be maximized. Any alternatives (solar, wind, even nuclear) are small parts of the energy driving the system and have their infrastructure dependent on CO2 emissions as well. Since fossil fuels are going to be important in the coming decades, this century will be on a curve above RCP 8.5.

And I have not included feedback emissions of CH4 and other greenhouse gases from the cryosphere and changing ocean chemistry.

BTW, greening via CO2 increases requires moderate temperatures. Not massive droughts as will be the new norm in the current regime of the ocean-atmosphere system. Any short term greening will be browning in the longer term coupled with extra CO2 emissions from plant stress.

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postPosted: Tue 22 May 2018, 21:28:06
by ralfy
pstarr wrote:Yes Outcaste, compared to geologic times scales, today's sea level rise and global warming is miniscule.
Image
That little bit of red is the hockey stick of today's global warming. It's insignificant.


It is noticeable, though, that the two track each other. More important, there was no large human population with a sophisticated industrial civilization until recently.

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postPosted: Tue 22 May 2018, 21:29:57
by dohboi
Well put, as usual, dis.

And on that last point:

https://www.skepticalscience.com/climat ... worse.html


Climate change is already making droughts worse


...models ... show – unequivocally – an increased drying and drought risk for many regions of the world.

Most likely to be adversely affected are Mediterranean regions of Europe and Africa, Central America, southwest US and the subtropics of the southern hemisphere.

This drying occurs because of climate change-forced regional declines in rainfall, but also from the direct effect of warmer temperatures, which increases evaporative losses from the surface, causes earlier snowmelt and shifts precipitation from snow to rain.

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postPosted: Sun 27 May 2018, 16:27:05
by M_B_S
https://exitinternational.net/media/MR2Goodall.pdf
"It is too late to revert back to the relatively calm and evenly balanced systems we had enjoyed up to the 1950’s
"All we can do now is to adapt to the resulting changes and the damages we caused, us in the first world to an
overwhelming degree being responsible for this."
It will be hard enough to curb the further effects by abiding to such ideas as the Paris climate agreements. I am not
very optimistic if we are even going to do that! Too many particular short term interests are involved. But it is worth
giving it a good try. We might prevent the changes spiralling out of control. That would decimate the populations
greatly and might make the planet a very hostile place.
Allowing end of life choice for the elderly, not just the terminally ill is a logical step."
When I asked if he felt he was "getting out, just in time!", he quickly agreed.


Image
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jl321YAry2E


=> China expected to play bigger role in tackling climate change
Source: Xinhua| 2018-05-27 08:29:00

BEIJING, May 27 (Xinhua) -- China is expected to play a bigger role in countering climate change as a tone-setting ecology and environmental protection meeting highlights the implementation of a national plan to tackle climate change, an expert observed.

The meeting will speed up China's green development and the building of an ecological civilization and a community with shared future for humanity, according to Zou Ji, president of Energy Foundation China, an organization dedicated to sustainable energy development.

The meeting pointed out that China will implement a national plan to proactively tackle climate change and promote the development of a fair, reasonable and mutually beneficial global climate change governance system....
************
Good News maybe to late for China and the planet.

M_B_S

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postPosted: Tue 29 May 2018, 21:38:54
by dohboi
another feedback I didn't know about and could not have imagined...I wonder how many more of these are out there 'in the wings'?

Some thing new in the ocean uptake of co2 and as with a lot of research these days (it seems) it’s not good.
Invisible scum on sea cuts CO2 exchange with air ‘by up to 50%. from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... y-up-to-50
“The world’s oceans absorb around a quarter of all man-made carbon dioxide emissions, making them the largest long-term sink of carbon on Earth.
Greater sea turbulence increases gas exchange between the atmosphere and oceans and until now it was difficult to calculate the effect of “biological surfactants”.
Teams from the Natural Environment Research Council, the Leverhulme Trust and the European Space Agency developed a system that compares “the surfactant effect” between different seawaters in real time.
They found surfactants can reduce carbon dioxide exchange by up to 50%.
Dr Ryan Pereira, a Lyell research fellow at Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh, said: “As surface temperatures rise, so too do surfactants, which is why this is such a critical finding.
“The warmer the ocean surface gets, the more surfactants we can expect, and an even greater reduction in gas exchange”
the paper from Nature can be found here
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0136-2

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postPosted: Wed 30 May 2018, 23:16:59
by dissident
So the oceans are likely to become a net CO2 source by 2100. Predictions that do not include the surfactant effect estimate that the ocean sink will shrink 70% by 2100.

A "corollary" of the above is that we will be warmer by 2050 than we expect by a substantial margin. The year 2100 target is an IPCC hangup which results from the lack of proper accounting for feedbacks. This includes the cryosphere CO2/CH4 reservoir release, changing ocean biochemistry due to thermal stress on the euphotic zone which will release more CH4 and H2S, and the accumulation of surfactants which is part of this changing ocean biochemistry.

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postPosted: Thu 31 May 2018, 05:32:14
by Newfie
dohboi wrote:Easy...everyone grow their own food! :-D


That Latin’s actually something I agree with. Not strictly but in general terms.

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postPosted: Sat 02 Jun 2018, 09:59:45
by dohboi
Good overview here on GHG emissions: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-othe ... -emissions

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postPosted: Mon 04 Jun 2018, 13:30:05
by M_B_S
The Anthropocene Generalized: Evolution of Exo-Civilizations and Their Planetary Feedback
Frank A. , Carroll-Nellenback Jonathan , Alberti M. , and Kleidon A.
Published Online:1 May 2018
https://doi.org/10.1089/ast.2017.1671

We find four distinct classes of trajectories in our models.

Sustainability: For these classes, stable equilibria (n*, e*) exist which can be approached monotonically. The population rises smoothly to a steady-state value. The planetary environment is monotonically perturbed from its initial value e0 and reaches a new steady state that can support a large population.

Die-off: For these classes, stable equilibria (n*, e*) exist which cannot be approached monotonically. The population overshoots the environment's carrying capacity, reaches a peak, and is forced to decline as the environment reaches its new steady state.

Collapse: For these classes, stable equilibria with nonzero population do not exist. In these cases the population experiences a rapid decline after reaching its peak value. It is noteworthy that collapse can occur even though the population has begun leveling off due to the civilization's switching from high-impact to low-impact energy modalities.

Oscillation: In this class, a stable limit cycle exists rather than an equilibrium. The population and the planetary environment cycle between high and low values.
******************
More
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arc ... Mai%202018

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postPosted: Mon 04 Jun 2018, 13:51:17
by KaiserJeep
dohboi wrote:Good overview here on GHG emissions: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-othe ... -emissions


The entire problem with most such studies also applies to this one:

Carbon dioxide emissions associated with energy and industrial production....


That's it, that's all they focus on, is fossil fuel emissions. They ignore the carbon dioxide expired by humans, domestic food animals, and pets.

YES, I get it. The world was at least stable BEFORE the burning of FF's. But the cheap and easy energy from FF combustion then enabled the world human population to grow far beyond the sustainable limits. As we approach 8 billion humans, we must acknowledge that those 8 billion humans, plus the billions of domestic cattle/sheep/pigs/chickens, are no longer in balance with the ecosystem.

Even if 20 years ago, somebody had discovered a magic energy source, and had kept it secret until today after full production status was reached, and it would replace coal/oil/gas/nuclear within this year, we are still left with the intractable conundrum of 8 billion humans, and not enough stuff for them to consume. The world still dies.

Those billions of humans exist today. They will not disappear from the planet, ever. Their presence dooms us, and ceasing to burn FF's won't do anything useful at all, as long as they exist.

It's of course simple enough to say "kill them all, for the sake of the planet". But - to me at least - that murderous solution is far worse than any climate change scenario that you silly alarmists have ever raised.

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postPosted: Fri 08 Jun 2018, 04:25:01
by nocar
Is it really true that animals' breathing produce CO2? Of course we exhale CO2. but all that comes from our food, which as plants sucked in CO2 to make calories. Even meat comes from animals eating plants. No doubt many kinds of agriculture emit CO2 (and methane), but then we should do better sorts of agriculture. Basic photosyntesis: Plants eat water and CO2 to grow (and exhale oxygen), and animals eat plants and inhale oxygen and exhale CO2 and water to live and to grow.

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postPosted: Fri 08 Jun 2018, 08:02:27
by KaiserJeep
My point would be that half of the GHG's are not associated with burning FF's for energy or transport. Even if - by magic or science or whatever means - we were to cease burning those FF', we are still doomed by population overshoot.

That's the real issue. Climate Change is only a symptom of too many people for the planet to heal faster than their presence destroys it. Anything you do to lessen the human impact - aside from the one really helpful thing which is removing people from the planet - only exacerbates the overpopulation issue.

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postPosted: Fri 08 Jun 2018, 17:32:56
by kiwichick

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postPosted: Fri 08 Jun 2018, 17:41:31
by kiwichick
graphic showing biggest impact on GHG emissions

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... r-children

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postPosted: Tue 12 Jun 2018, 09:58:32
by M_B_S
Climate Change Could Lead to Major Crop Failures in World’s Biggest Corn Regions
Two new studies looking at corn and vegetables warn of a rising risk of food shocks and malnutrition with unchecked global warming.
Georgina Gustin
BY GEORGINA GUSTIN

JUN 11, 2018

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/1106 ... rop-prices


Image
8O :!: :idea:
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Thats brutal we are still on the track to SIX (6) degree global warming 2100

411 ppm CO2 means ~ +1.5 degree C