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Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 11:00:35

The Sunshine Canyon fire near Boulder, CO is now 100% contained, but firefighters are warning that the very unseasonably warm and dry conditions that helped create it are still in place:

“Firefighters are comparing conditions to early June, when the state typically sees large wildfires.”

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/lo ... ontainment
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 22:06:50

U.S. sees furious start to the wildfire season

http://buff.ly/2n9mXU4 via @USATODAY"

https://twitter.com/climatenexus/status ... 4317122560

Wildfires have charred a whopping 2 million acres across the U.S. so far this year, an area larger than the state of Delaware.

It's a gigantic number for so early in the season, roughly 10 times the average and also the most acres burned as of mid-March since 2006, according to spokeswoman Jessica Gardetto of the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho.

Many of the blazes have been massive grass fires in Oklahoma and Kansas, which have both set records for number of acres burned in March, Gardetto said....
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 23 Mar 2017, 22:29:22

Wind speeds in the Texas Panhandle today were 50 mph . This fire started around 3 PM .

Forest Service: 5,500 acres burned, containment levels still at 0

The Texas A&M Forest Service said Thursday evening that 5,500 acres have been burned in the Rankin Ranch Road Fire, a large blaze burning near Miami in Roberts County.


http://www.newschannel10.com/story/3498 ... -contained

Thanks to COBob for this link and text
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 23 Mar 2017, 22:34:55

Wind speeds in the Texas Panhandle today were 50 mph . This fire started around 3 PM .

Roberts Co. fire burns 40,000 acres

http://www.newschannel10.com/story/3498 ... -contained

Thanks to COBob for this link and text

And let's remember we already had hellish fires down in that general region over the last few days and weeks:

Burying Their Cattle, Ranchers Call Wildfires ‘Our Hurricane Katrina’


...wind-driven wildfires across Kansas, Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle killed seven people and devoured homes, miles of fences and as much as 80 percent of some families’ cattle herds.


https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/20/us/b ... trina.html
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 11:06:36

Wildfires this year are 10 times worse than average

https://thinkprogress.org/wildfire-seas ... .77bjbq65w
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 12:51:24

Wildfires this year are 10 times worse than average


a bit over the top reporting wise. The actual data indicates that the number of fires to date in 2017 compared to other years since 2006 (same time of year) are less than in 2007, 2009 and 2011. The area is higher but not 10 times larger. It is 6.7 times larger than the average for this time of year over the past 10 years and 3 times larger than 2016 for this time of year. The area is of course more to do with fuel and wind. Interestingly enough when you look at the Palmer Index the most active fires currently are in Oklahoma and there is only a small part of the state that is in moderate drought conditions. Looking at the fuel index for OK there does not seem to be large areas where fires are currently that has more than normal fuel accumulation or less than normal fuel moisture. This suggests maybe that fire areas are a product of high winds.
The monthly outlook for fire risk is concentrated in West TX, east NM, West OK, southern CO and KS as well as Florida and parts of the east coast. The forecast for April shows the area where most of the current fires are to be at normal risk with only central NM being at high risk along with Florida and the southern east coast.
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 30 Mar 2017, 17:01:17

I set at least a dozen fires last night in my yard, so those should be added to the # of fires non-statistic!!

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 12 Apr 2017, 14:51:26

Wildfires across Florida prompt state of emergency

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/04/12/ ... the-state/
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 03 May 2017, 14:10:31

More positive (= exacerbating) feedbacks:

Wildfires in Borneo are ten times larger during droughts than in non-drought years; global warming will increase the frequency & severity of such droughts:

Muh Taufik et al.

Amplification of wildfire area burnt by hydrological drought in the humid tropics


Nature Climate Change (2017). DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3280

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/ ... e3280.html

Borneo’s diverse ecosystems, which are typical humid tropical conditions, are deteriorating rapidly, as the area is experiencing recurrent large-scale wildfires, affecting atmospheric composition and influencing regional climate processes. Studies suggest that climate-driven drought regulates wildfires, but these overlook subsurface processes leading to hydrological drought, an important driver. Here, we show that models which include hydrological processes better predict area burnt than those solely based on climate data.

We report that the Borneo landscape has experienced a substantial hydrological drying trend since the early twentieth century, leading to progressive tree mortality, more severe than in other tropical regions.

This has caused massive wildfires in lowland Borneo during the past two decades, which we show are clustered in years with large areas of hydrological drought coinciding with strong El Niño events. Statistical modelling evidence shows amplifying wildfires and greater area burnt in response to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strength, when hydrology is considered. These results highlight the importance of considering hydrological drought for wildfire prediction, and we recommend that hydrology should be considered in future studies of the impact of projected ENSO strength, including effects on tropical ecosystems, and biodiversity conservation.
"

See also, the associated linked article entitled: "Hydrological drought amplifies wildfires in Borneo's humid tropics".

https://phys.org/news/2017-05-hydrologi ... orneo.html

Extract: "The area of wildfires in Borneo during drought years turns out to be ten times larger than during non-drought years, an international research team reports in Nature Climate Change of this week. The fires recurrently affecting Borneo's humid tropical ecosystems have negative influence on the biodiversity and lead to large CO2 emissions, affecting atmospheric composition and regional climate processes. Future droughts in wet tropical regions will likely increase in frequency and severity, and consequently the fire risk, the team says. "

(thanks to aslr for text and links)
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 04 May 2017, 13:32:24

Wildfires raging in Siberia, too...again...

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/05/03/ ... e-to-heat/
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 23 May 2017, 21:19:09

Worldwide, the length of Earth’s fire season increased nearly 19 percent from 1979 to 2013, according to a study by Mark Cochrane, a professor of fire ecology at South Dakota State University.

Fires had steadily been increasing, but then in the late 1990s and early 2000s, “we’ve suddenly been hit with lots of these large fires we can’t control,” Cochrane said.


http://italk1067.com/is-climate-warming ... -mountain/
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 30 May 2017, 22:52:22

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/05/30/ ... er-spikes/

Fire still a danger around Ft McMurray
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby Tuike » Sun 18 Jun 2017, 06:24:59

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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 27 Jun 2017, 16:01:48

Utah’s #BrianHeadFire has grown to the largest in the nation....

https://twitter.com/sean_breslin/status ... 9375661060

Utah's Brian Head Fire Now Largest Active Wildfire in U.S.; 13 Homes Burned


https://weather.com/news/news/brian-hea ... atest-news
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 30 Jun 2017, 19:58:10

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/nasa ... ires-21576
These NASA Images Show Siberia Burning Up
You can ignore reality but not its consequences
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 01 Jul 2017, 09:59:28

new paper published in Science this week indicates global number of fires and size have been declining since 1998.

Andela, N. et al, 2017. A human driven decline in global burned area. Science, 356, pp 1356-1362. DOI: 10.1126/science.aal4108

Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.


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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 01 Jul 2017, 12:46:11

rock really is a one trick pony here...keeps posting the same irrelevant study over and over again hoping someone will think that this time it is relevant.

"Number of Fires" is an irrelevant statistic.

I can (and have :) ) light a few dozen fires in my yard and technically quadruple the 'number of fires' in my state. But it would clearly have absolutely no relevance to anything.
Last edited by dohboi on Sat 01 Jul 2017, 13:49:05, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 01 Jul 2017, 13:30:03

rock really is a one trick pony here...keeps posting the same irrelevant study over and over again hoping someone will think that this time it is relevant.

"Number of Fires" is an irrelevant statistic.

I can (and have :) ) light a few dozen fires in my yard and technically quadruple the 'number of fires' in my state. But it would clearly have absolutely no relevance to anything.

Of course, if you look at actually significant stats like number of acres burned, you get a very, very different graph.


what a dolt......same old study? This was just published in the last issue of Science.
And if you bothered to read the abstract which was posted and look at Chart A you would see it is burned area that has been decreasing and size (chart C). I guess it is difficult to read with your head inserted where it is. :roll:

It amazes me that you just love to demonstrate your ignorance time and again.
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 01 Jul 2017, 13:44:37

It's the same irrelevant (to our purposes) measure.

Number of fires is irrelevant. But you're gonna keep harping on it, because all the actual, relevant measures prove that your denialism is 100% deluded. Good luck with that.

For others who want to read about GW-wildfire connections, try:

http://www.dw.com/en/how-climate-change ... a-19465490

...over the past few decades, the number of wildfires has indeed increased, especially in the western United States. According to the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), every state in the western US has experienced an increase in the average annual number of large wildfires over past decades.

Extensive studies have found that large forest fires in the western US have been occurring nearly five times more often since the 1970s and 80s. Such fires are burning more than six times the land area as before, and lasting almost five times longer...

Greenhouse gas emissions, via the greenhouse effect, are causing the global temperature to increase and the climate to change. This enhances the likelihood of wildfires.

...Drier conditions and higher temperatures increase not only the likelihood of a wildfire to occur, but also the duration and the severity of the wildfire.

A less direct climate-driven effect is pest outbreaks that have killed a lot of trees. Pests make forests more susceptible to wildfire, according to Funk.

"We know that these pest outbreaks have been caused by climate change, because there hasn't been anything like that in the past 500 years, perhaps even 1,000 years," he said.

Insects are responding to warmer conditions, Funk explained, taking advantage of the longer summer season which grants them longer breeding circles and faster reproduction. "We can link those effects to the warmer temperatures that we've seen in the places where wildfires have been taking place."


I do expect that in some places GW could actually decrease the number, severity and extent of wildfires, since many places will see increases in rainfall with average global atmospheric water vapor levels going up by about 7% for every degree C that global temps go up. But in the interiors of most continents, where most of the big forests are, we will see mostly drying out, increased pests and disease, increased lightening strikes, and so more, more severe and bigger wildfires...that is until all/most of the trees are gone. And of course other elements come into play, as r's abstract points out: "Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity."


(I'm done playing chess with pigeons. If anyone else wants pigeon poop on 'em, have at it! :lol: )
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 01 Jul 2017, 14:26:22

Number of fires is irrelevant. But you're gonna keep harping on it, because all the actual, relevant measures prove that your denialism is 100% deluded. Good luck with that.


How stupid are you? Can you not read? The paper is mainly about burned area around the world. I even put it in bold but for some reason you keep thinking it says "number of fires", here I'll repeat it for you as literacy seems to be a skill you haven't latched onto

We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years.


I do expect that in some places GW could actually decrease the number, severity and extent of wildfires, since many places will see increases in rainfall with average global atmospheric water vapor levels going up by about 7% for every degree C that global temps go up. But in the interiors of most continents, where most of the big forests are, we will see mostly drying out, increased pests and disease, increased lightening strikes, and so more, more severe and bigger wildfires...that is until all/most of the trees are gone. And of course other elements come into play, as r's abstract points out: "Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity.


Some places? Given the study is not about some places but rather about the entire globe I think you have a problem. This is real data, real evidence that there has not been an increase in wildfires either in number or size or severity. But of course you have no problem with ignoring real data if it disagrees with the particular disaster scenario you are spinning.

As to playing chess with pigeons it is a good thing they don't play chess as I suspect you would be on the losing end of that deal.
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