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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postPosted: Mon 31 Jul 2017, 23:07:54
by dohboi
“Two storms make landfall in Taiwan

In a very rare weather scenario, Typhoon Nesat and Tropical Storm Haitang bring over a metre of water to Taiwan” ... 59339.html ... index.html

Tropical Storm Emily downgraded as it moves across Florida

The Gov announced a state of emergency.


"Supertyphoon #Noru is now a Category 5 w/ max winds of 160 mph - the 1st Cat. 5 hurricane/typhoon of the 2017 Northern Hemisphere TC season."
With radar loop: ... 6411003904

"Hugely powerful Category 5 Super Typhoon #Noru has rapidly intensified over the last day or so. May impact southern Japan in about 7 days." ... 0656909312

"Seriously, this is a beautiful storm.
For now, #Noru is safely out at sea. This 3-min resolution satellite loop will not disappoint." ... 9909403649

"As it looks right now, Super Typhoon #Noru could rival some of the strongest landfalls ever recorded in Japan.
Please watch this one closely" ... 6381516805

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postPosted: Wed 09 Aug 2017, 11:32:04
by vox_mundi
This Hurricane Season May Generate as Many as 19 Atlantic Storms

The Atlantic hurricane season will probably end with an above-average 14 to 19 named storms that can rattle energy and agriculture markets now that it is almost certain a system-deterring Pacific El Nino won’t arrive.

At least 5 to 9 will become hurricanes with 2 to 5 becoming major systems with winds of 111 miles (179 kilometers) per hour or more, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a conference call with reporters Wednesday. Storms are named when their winds reach 39 mph. In May, the agency said 11 to 17 storms would form.

“There is a possibility now that the season will be extremely active,” said Gerry Bell, lead hurricane seasonal forecaster at the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland. “We are now entering the historical peak months of the season. This three month period is when the bulk of hurricanes occur.

The tropical Atlantic is about 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit (0.5 to 1.1 Celsius) warmer than normal, which can spur on hurricane development, Bell said. Tropical storms and hurricanes draw strength from warm water.

They aren’t the warmest temperatures on record but they are certainly sufficient,” Bell said. “These conducive conditions are in place and we expect them to persist.”

Starting around Aug. 20, the Atlantic enters its most active phase that lasts about six weeks. The statistical peak of the season is Sept. 10.

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postPosted: Tue 22 Aug 2017, 22:39:16
by dohboi
All you Texas boys and girls should watch out for Harvey. Seems he may be coming your way. ... aten-texas

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postPosted: Wed 23 Aug 2017, 12:09:28
by vox_mundi
It's getting worse. Houston is going to catch a hosin'


Just-completed GFS model (12Z) shows nothing less than a flooding catastrophe for Texas. 24-48" of rain in 3 or 4 days. ... 4325860352

"For reference, Houston's rainiest day in history was 10.34" on 6/26/1989, during a similarly slow-moving tropical storm. This is way worse."

h/t ... #msg126234

Stay Dry Rockman 8O

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postPosted: Wed 23 Aug 2017, 16:52:08
by dohboi
Doesn't Agent live down there, too?

Maybe this should be on that old thread: "Houston, we have a problem!"

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postPosted: Thu 24 Aug 2017, 08:55:29
by dohboi
Michael Ventrice: #Harvey is rapidly intensifying. The storm is likely to achieve Hurricane intensity in a matter of hours, a full day earlier than NHC fcst ... 9459991552

Radar loop at the link...

"Latest (06Z) GFS still showing catastrophic rainfall of 20-30"+ over multiple days after #Harvey landfall.
Please prepare, Texas & Louisiana" ... 5032687617

"Excellent advice from a trusted meteorologist in the insurance industry...”:
"Advice for those in #Harvey path:
1) Breathe
2) Take photos of your stuff
3) Prepare for worst; hope for best
4) Obey evacuation orders"

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postPosted: Thu 24 Aug 2017, 10:46:31
by GHung
Now projected to be Cat 3 at landfall:

- The wind threat has increased from the previous assessment.
- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for
major hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of
equivalent Category 3 intensity or higher.
- To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
devastating to catastrophic wind impacts. Remaining efforts
to secure properties should now be brought to completion.
- Extremely dangerous and life-threatening wind is possible.
Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury,
loss of life, or immense human suffering. Move to safe
shelter before the wind becomes hazardous...

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete
roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile
homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne
projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or

- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences
and roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages..... ... Z7zlReQxsg

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postPosted: Thu 24 Aug 2017, 11:02:00
by AgentR11
dohboi wrote:Doesn't Agent live down there, too?
Maybe this should be on that old thread: "Houston, we have a problem!"

I don't live on the coast, but I may get hosed pretty good. My particular location can not flood, but other things could happen. Last I looked at its forecast track though, it seems to be targeted to drift inland due NW, as opposed to curving around NE and parking on top of Houston; so a repeat of Allison shouldn't happen. Widespread flooding is expected though.

It will be interesting to see how well recent improvements hold up in preventing multi-billion dollar damage results.

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postPosted: Thu 24 Aug 2017, 11:56:31
by onlooker
From the Weather Channel ---

With a favorable environment that includes deep, warm Gulf of Mexico water, and low wind shear, Harvey will continue to strengthen rapidly, and could be a Category 3 hurricane at landfall along the Texas coast overnight Friday night or early Saturday morning.
Story Highlights
Harvey is currently a tropical storm in the western Gulf of Mexico.

It will track toward the Texas Gulf Coast and make landfall as a hurricane Friday night.

Harvey is likely to intensify before landfall.

Harvey will then stall or meander for a few days, leading to a dangerous flood threat in parts of Texas and Louisiana.

Hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge warnings have been issued for parts of Texas.

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postPosted: Thu 24 Aug 2017, 11:59:05
by vox_mundi
Rapidly strengthening Harvey forecast to slam East Texas as major hurricane

Image ... oater.html

Image ... 3-landfall

NWS National Hurricane Center ... With Harvey now strengthening at a faster rate than indicated in previous advisories, the intensity forecast has become quite concerning. Water vapor images indicate that the cyclone's outflow is expanding--indicative of low shear--and Harvey will be moving over a warm eddy of high oceanic heat content in the western Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours. As a result of these conditions, several intensity models, including the ICON intensity consensus, are now explicit showing Harvey reaching major hurricane intensity. What's more astounding is that some of the SHIPS Rapid Intensification indices are incredibly high. As an example, the guidance is indicating a 70 percent chance of Harvey's winds increasing by 45 kt over the next 36 hours. Based on this guidance, the NHC official
intensity forecast now calls for Harvey to reach major hurricane strength by 36 hours, before it reaches the middle Texas coast.


The rain and wind from the storm could have profound effects on oil refineries near its path.


Texas has not been hit by a hurricane since 2008, when Ike crashed ashore near Galveston. Harvey could be a storm Texans remember for many years to come.

7-Day Total Precipitation

It looks angry. 8O Keep dry, Agent

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postPosted: Thu 24 Aug 2017, 12:12:29
by Tanada
The key question is, how much will this disrupt oil imports and Texas oil production, and for how long? Katrina oil impact lasted months but some other storms only impact under a week. Where will this one fall on the time spectrum?

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postPosted: Thu 24 Aug 2017, 13:10:54
by vox_mundi
Looks like it's aiming West of Houston.

The port in Corpus Christi is now the country's 4th largest. This is what it ships:


Exxon Mobil Corporation - Baytown
- Capacity: 560,500 b/d
Deer Park Refining - Deer Park
- Capacity: 327,000 b/d
Houston Refining - Houston
- Capacity: 273,433 b/d
Marathon - Galveston Bay
- Capacity: 400,780 b/d
Marathon - Texas City
- Capacity: 80,000 b/d
Valero Energy Corporation - Texas City
- Capacity: 225,000 b/d
Valero Energy Corporation - Corpus Christi
- Capacity: 200,000 b/d
Citgo Petroleum Corporation - Corpus Christi
- Capacity: 163,000 b/d
Flint Hills Resources - Corpus Christi
- Capacity: 290,078 b/d
Phillips 66 - Sweeny
- Capacity: 247,000 b/d
BTB Refining - Corpus Christi
- Capacity: 16,000 b/d



- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 4-7 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Begins early Friday afternoon

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postPosted: Thu 24 Aug 2017, 13:30:30
by AgentR11
vox_mundi wrote:Looks like it's aiming West of Houston.

Don't underestimate the rainfall flooding, most of which will occur N of the landfall point.

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postPosted: Thu 24 Aug 2017, 13:39:35
by vox_mundi
AgentR11 wrote:
vox_mundi wrote:Looks like it's aiming West of Houston.

Don't underestimate the rainfall flooding, most of which will occur N of the landfall point. ... 7834306560

Some models est 2 to 4 FEET #Harvey rainfall..Trying not to be dramatic but I fear epic flood catastrophe. Happy to be wrong. Pray I am..BUT

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postPosted: Thu 24 Aug 2017, 14:55:43
by dohboi
I'm glad to see that others are now noticing this storm that I first drew people's attention to. :)

Agent, some of the reports are saying that much of the heaviest rainfall will be well inland, so...stay safe, man!

T, I get that this is a PO site and all, but I think the direct and extreme risk to life this thing poses, per Ghung's link, is a bit more of the main point (or 'key question,' or whatever) than what incovenience it might pose for the oil industry...but maybe that's just me? :-D

rs is now on it: ... -on-texas/

Hurricane as Rain Bomb — Rapidly Intensifying Harvey Threatens to Dump 20-30 Inches on Texas

...with Harvey’s top intensity continuing to drift into stronger ranges, with a human-warmed atmosphere now capable of producing much more intense rainfall events, and with the storm expected to rain out over such a long period, some of the rainfall totals could be even higher than this initial range.

Some other commentary out there:

”Latest (12Z) Euro model rapidly intensifies Hurricane #Harvey, makes landfall, takes it back to sea, rapidly intensifies again to Houston.”

“To be honest, this would be a really, really bad thing for New Orleans, which would get the "dirty" side of the second landfall. Heavy rain.”

“Remember, no power = no AC [Air Conditioning] #Harvey”

“Corpus Christi buses now running free for anyone who wishes to be evacuated to San Antonio. Folks - this is as real as it gets #Harvey”

“FEMA has pre-positioned 250,000 meals, 77,000 liters of water and 4,000 tarps ahead of landfall by #Harvey”
It won't be enough.” ... 2884426752

“Potential flood disaster: Like GFS, European model forecasts large area 17-32" of rain thru Wed in eastern Texas. “ ... 2755958786

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postPosted: Thu 24 Aug 2017, 15:29:42
by onlooker ... recedented
Here’s Why Hurricane Harvey Is So Scary and Unprecedented
There are also good reasons why everyone is talking about this storm (except, of course, President Trump, who until Thursday afternoon was busy tweeting memes). The first is obvious: Harvey is likely to be the first major hurricane to make landfall in the United States since 2005. But the second is more complicated. According to Texas State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon, hurricanes usually come with only one of two awful characteristics—either heavy, persistent rainfall or strong, violent winds and storm surge. It looks like Hurricane Harvey could have both, because unique wind patterns may prevent the storm from moving quickly out of the region.

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postPosted: Thu 24 Aug 2017, 15:35:03
by dohboi
They're talking a possible cat 4 now.

And of course that too could be another underestimate.

European models, historically some of the most accurate, show it going back to sea, re-intensifying, then making landfall again further watch out Houston and NOLA!!

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postPosted: Fri 25 Aug 2017, 06:04:34
by vox_mundi
Hurricane Harvey Strenghtens as Refinery Risk Lifts Gasoline

... Oil refiners in the Gulf Coast, home to as much as half of the nation’s refining capacity, began halting operations amid warnings of deadly floods and storm surges. If Harvey makes the forecast landfall as a Category 3 -- with winds of at least 111 miles an hour -- it’ll be the strongest storm to hit the U.S. since Wilma in 2005.

While its course has meant the storm isn’t shutting much oil and natural gas production in the Gulf, it’s set to hit a cluster of refineries that process almost 5 million barrels of oil a day.

About 1 million barrels a day of crude and condensate refining capacity in Texas has been shut down by companies including Valero Energy Corp., according to company statements, government releases and people familiar with the situation. About 10 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil production has also been shuttered.

The Port of Corpus Christi closed for all vessels sailing in or out as part of its hurricane preparations, officials said in an emailed statement. The U.S. Coast Guard shut Houston-Galveston ports to inbound vessels, and energy companies are shutting fuel terminals.
If it's a Category 3, and it hits a refining center, you literally could have a gasoline price spike that is like 27 cents" a gallon, ... "It's a temporary event, but you could have a temporary price shock for portions of the United States that are fed by the Gulf Coast."

“ExxonMobil said at noon Thursday that it was already reducing production at its Hoover oil and gas platform in the Gulf of Mexico about 200 miles south of Houston and was evacuating personnel working offshore. Shell said it had evacuated about 200 offshore workers by helicopter and that it had shut in production and secured equipment at its deepwater Perdido oil and gas production hub. … More than 45 percent of U.S. petroleum refining capacity lies along the Gulf Coast … A Citigroup report to investors said more than 85 percent of Texas’s refining capacity is located inside the highest precipitation zone for the storm.”
"This is much more impact on refining, especially if it becomes a flooding event,"

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates said the flooding could impact their ability receive shipments or export surplus product.

According to Lipow, 31.6 percent of U.S. refining capacity is located between Lake Charles, Louisiana, and Corpus Christi. He said if the storm becomes a Category 1 hurricane, a rule of thumb is that it could take about a week to restore refining operations, and as much as two weeks if it becomes a Category 2.

Lipow said refiners that are impacted by a Category 3 hurricane can sometimes take two to three weeks to get back to normal. "There is more likely to be evacuations, widespread power outages, wind damage, flooding and difficulty getting workers back to the facilities," he said. ... acity.html

There's over 100 million barrels of petroleum storage tanks at risk, as well.
The threat of a major storm striking the area, and especially the Houston Ship Channel, the nation’s second-largest port by tonnage, has long been a nightmare scenario for disaster experts.

Rice University’s Severe Storm Prediction, Education, and Evacuation from Disasters (SSPEED) Center predicts a direct hit would ‘easily’ cause more than $100 billion in damages.

-- Major damage will also draw public attention to severe budget cuts Trump has proposed. GOP operative John Weaver, a top strategist to John Kasich and John McCain before that, noted last night:

-- Trump wants to cut the National Weather Service’s budget by 6 percent and its parent agency, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), by 16 percent. “Trump also proposed huge subcuts for programs that engage in computer modeling of storms, as well as observation of storms and dissemination of data,” Newsweek’s Matthew Cooper reports. “Already, the U.S. is behind Europe in its forecast accuracy, and further cuts to research would likely leave the country farther behind in what’s been called ‘climate intelligence.’ The National Weather Service’s main forecasting model, the Global Forecasting System, has seen a major drop-off in accuracy. The White House’s budget proposal would only make it worse. It seeks to cut 26 percent from NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which supports data collection, climate and science, as well as research into more accurate weather forecasting models. The budget blueprint also would cut $513 million from NOAA’s satellite division … a 22 percent reduction.”

-- Before his retirement at the end of June, the retiring chief of a team of U.S. hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center warned that Trump’s budget cuts could have dire consequences. “It's hanging on really by a thread in terms of funding,” James Franklin told the Associated Press before stepping down after 35 years at NOAA.

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postPosted: Fri 25 Aug 2017, 07:41:26
by onlooker
Hurricane Harvey Forecast

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing
life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions
of the Texas coast. Preparations to protect life and property should
be completed this morning, as tropical-storm-force winds will first
arrive in the hurricane and storm surge warning areas later today.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at

3. Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from today through next
Wednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more
information on the flooding hazard.

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postPosted: Fri 25 Aug 2017, 09:49:53
by shortonoil
If you count them, up the coast, at least 16 refineries are in the direct path of this storm. The big problem for them is the speed at which this storm has arrived. The refineries have had less than two days advance notice. To shut a refinery down without taking the chance that distillate towers and cokers are not damaged takes most of a week. They must cool down slowly to avoid possible damage. With up to a 12 foot storm surge heading their way that option may not be available to them. A 7 mb/d capacity is at risk of damage that could take a year to repair. The demand for crude could take a rapid, and sudden plunge. Whomever it is that has been holding up WTI prices recently may be getting a little worried about now?