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CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby Lore » Sun 22 May 2016, 20:07:54

Recent studies suggest that this is the worst drought in California for some 1,200 years and back then you didn't have nearly 40 million living there lavishly wasting water.

How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought?

For the past three years (2012–2014), California has experienced the most severe drought conditions in its last century. But how unusual is this event? Here we use two paleoclimate reconstructions of drought and precipitation for Central and Southern California to place this current event in the context of the last millennium. We demonstrate that while 3 year periods of persistent below-average soil moisture are not uncommon, the current event is the most severe drought in the last 1200 years, with single year (2014) and accumulated moisture deficits worse than any previous continuous span of dry years. Tree ring chronologies extended through the 2014 growing season reveal that precipitation during the drought has been anomalously low but not outside the range of natural variability. The current California drought is exceptionally severe in the context of at least the last millennium and is driven by reduced though not unprecedented precipitation and record high temperatures.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 3/abstract
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 4

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 22 May 2016, 20:33:54

Tree ring chronologies extended through the 2014 growing season reveal that precipitation during the drought has been anomalously low but not outside the range of natural variability.

So soil moisture levels were/are normal, the state its agriculture industry and ecosystems survived a very severe drought. Renewal of reservoirs (and perhaps aquifers) suggests we will do fine for a quite a long time. And next winter (after a very long run of very cold winters) you will thank your lucky stars we are still able to feed you. That is . . . until peak-oil destroys the economy and your ability to ship our food to you. :cry:
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby efarmer » Mon 23 May 2016, 08:10:33

I think Pstarr is fairly accurate on the California side of the drought. The area I am following is the huge explosion of watered suburbias in the Nevada and Arizona deserts. The Hoover Dam made an exploit available that flies in the face of all natural systems to support life in scale with the recurring resources and Lake Mead is like an hourglass with the sand almost all in the lower chamber at this point.
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 4

Unread postby Lore » Mon 23 May 2016, 09:19:40

pstarr wrote:
Tree ring chronologies extended through the 2014 growing season reveal that precipitation during the drought has been anomalously low but not outside the range of natural variability.

So soil moisture levels were/are normal, the state its agriculture industry and ecosystems survived a very severe drought. Renewal of reservoirs (and perhaps aquifers) suggests we will do fine for a quite a long time. And next winter (after a very long run of very cold winters) you will thank your lucky stars we are still able to feed you. That is . . . until peak-oil destroys the economy and your ability to ship our food to you. :cry:


You're acting like the drought is in the past tense. One nearly average winter's precipitation is not about to end the trend. It is still on and will persist throughout 2016 which is likely to be yet another record-breaking year for warm temperatures.

Image
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 4

Unread postby ritter » Mon 23 May 2016, 15:24:09

Lore wrote:
pstarr wrote:
Tree ring chronologies extended through the 2014 growing season reveal that precipitation during the drought has been anomalously low but not outside the range of natural variability.

So soil moisture levels were/are normal, the state its agriculture industry and ecosystems survived a very severe drought. Renewal of reservoirs (and perhaps aquifers) suggests we will do fine for a quite a long time. And next winter (after a very long run of very cold winters) you will thank your lucky stars we are still able to feed you. That is . . . until peak-oil destroys the economy and your ability to ship our food to you. :cry:


You're acting like the drought is in the past tense. One nearly average winter's precipitation is not about to end the trend. It is still on and will persist throughout 2016 which is likely to be yet another record-breaking year for warm temperatures.

Image


Pstarr lives in that little white finger in northwest California where things are relatively ok, so his/her perspective is a bit skewed but accurate for location. Southern California and, to a slightly lesser degree, Central California are still in dire straights.
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby Satori » Mon 23 May 2016, 15:34:02

Thanks El Niño, but California drought is probably forever – ‘Now we know that drought is becoming a regular occurrence and water conservation must be a part of our everyday life’

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2016/05 ... ought.html

and back to business as usual

"On May 10, the MWD eliminated stiff rationing and overuse fees for the cities and smaller sub districts that buy from it. "

proving once again
that humans ARE dumber than yeast !
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 23 May 2016, 18:05:08

The dark red in the NOAA drought map (which cover much of California) is not the same scary dark red in Drought Monitor map we have been using. It only indicates that a drought "persists". That hardly means anything these days.
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 23 May 2016, 18:09:24

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/Stat ... or.aspx?CA

Image

Still plenty of 'scary dark red' in CA.

And note that everything that isn't white or yellow is indeed some stage of drought, not just the darkest shade.

Sooo, yeah. Drought persists for almost all of CA, and predictions are that it will continue or strengthen at least through August 1.

Longer range precipitation forecasts show below normal rain/snow fall from this fall through next spring.

It is indeed a good thing that you all are starting out these coming dry periods with at least not all of your reservoirs being at below long term average levels.
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 23 May 2016, 19:30:28

If you look at the same map from a year ago and compare it to today you can see that there is a great improvement. No the drought is not over but it is way better then the disaster the doomers on here were crowing about last summer. So maybe they will get a year or two without a crisis but with the ever growing population of California it is just a matter of time before they run out of water regardless of the weather.
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 23 May 2016, 19:43:02

I agree with Satori. We can thank this brutal El Niño for California's recent rains. After this El Niño ends, California's drought will almost certainly worsen again. The weather patterns there have been changed and drought will be the new normal. It is quite clear to me that it is very likely that California will be in deep poo before 2020. If you live in California you better move out or start prepping. I would definitely install some ponds, lakes, wells, cisterns and/or water tanks in my home if I lived there and I couldn't get out, but the smart thing to do is to move out. Most of the American SW will become uninhabitable in our lifetimes.
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 24 May 2016, 00:36:57

Uninhabitable is probably a strong word. There are ways to preserve water that haven't been tried yet. Toilet to tap baby.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/22/la-consi ... ogram.html
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 24 May 2016, 00:47:23

ennui2 wrote:Uninhabitable is probably a strong word. There are ways to preserve water that haven't been tried yet. Toilet to tap baby.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/22/la-consi ... ogram.html

From a technical perspective this is no big deal. All cities treat water to at least secondary treatment level. It is just a matter of adding additional filtration and reverse osmosis to send it back to the home. But there lies the rub.

All municipal waste treatment plants are at or below sea level lower than the buildings. Whereas all water supplies start above the homes. Sorry ennui, but you can't virtualize this problem with techie solutions. It takes money, energy, and C02
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 24 May 2016, 02:23:16

pstarr wrote:
ennui2 wrote:Uninhabitable is probably a strong word. There are ways to preserve water that haven't been tried yet. Toilet to tap baby.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/22/la-consi ... ogram.html

From a technical perspective this is no big deal. All cities treat water to at least secondary treatment level. It is just a matter of adding additional filtration and reverse osmosis to send it back to the home. But there lies the rub.

All municipal waste treatment plants are at or below sea level lower than the buildings. Whereas all water supplies start above the homes. Sorry ennui, but you can't virtualize this problem with techie solutions. It takes money, energy, and C02

Well they do have these things called pumps and pipes that move water uphill. :shock:
From the linked article,
Plans call for the water agency to initially use the recycled water to recharge groundwater basins, but "down the road" there could be what's known as a "direct to potable" reuse, according to the district.

I don't know why they don't use the secondary treated water directly for irrigation but the probably have good reasons. That way they could swap new water for slightly used water with some phosphorous in it that the plants can utilize and clean out of the water.
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 24 May 2016, 05:53:23

vtsnowedin wrote: I don't know why they don't use the secondary treated water directly for irrigation but the probably have good reasons. That way they could swap new water for slightly used water with some phosphorous in it that the plants can utilize and clean out of the water.


I can partially answer that. Secondary water that has not gone through distillation or reverse osmosis has a lot of nasty stuff in it you do not want getting into your food crops. Just as an example you have the metabolites and/or left over medications that every person taking medication flushed down the toilet or washed off in the shower. Many of those medications recombine in wildly unpredictable ways in the waste stream and are then taken up by plants where they can reenter the food either directly when you eat the plants or secondarily when the critters that ate the plants are eaten by yourself.
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 24 May 2016, 08:10:38

Like I said good reasons.
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 24 May 2016, 11:08:05

vtsnowedin wrote:Well they do have these things called pumps and pipes that move water uphill. :shock:

Did you not read my simple comment? To refresh you memory, I said waste-water reuse "takes money, energy, and C02"

This is a thread on a drought emergency assumedly caused or at least aggravated by human C02 emissions. Why would we want to mitigate C02 emissions by emitting more C02? With the additional energy use from pumping?
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 24 May 2016, 11:18:31

pstarr wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Well they do have these things called pumps and pipes that move water uphill. :shock:

Did you not read my simple comment? To refresh you memory, I said waste-water reuse "takes money, energy, and C02"

This is a thread on a drought emergency assumedly caused or at least aggravated by human C02 emissions. Why would we want to mitigate C02 emissions by emitting more C02? With the additional energy use from pumping?

Pumps can be run by solar and wind power so not necessarily a contributor to CO2 pollution.
It comes down to which is cheaper. Fully treat waste water and pump it back up to a useful position or pump sea water out of the Pacific and desalinate that before pumping it to that same useful position.
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby beamofthewave » Sun 05 Jun 2016, 21:13:32

the suburbs of LA are on fire, 12 percent contained at this time.
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 06 Jun 2016, 00:02:22

It sounds like it is no longer posing a serious threat to residential buildings now: http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/som ... ar-BBtS61K
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby hvacman » Mon 06 Jun 2016, 10:47:24

vtsnowedin wrote:
pstarr wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Well they do have these things called pumps and pipes that move water uphill. :shock:

Did you not read my simple comment? To refresh you memory, I said waste-water reuse "takes money, energy, and C02"

This is a thread on a drought emergency assumedly caused or at least aggravated by human C02 emissions. Why would we want to mitigate C02 emissions by emitting more C02? With the additional energy use from pumping?

Pumps can be run by solar and wind power so not necessarily a contributor to CO2 pollution.
It comes down to which is cheaper. Fully treat waste water and pump it back up to a useful position or pump sea water out of the Pacific and desalinate that before pumping it to that same useful position.


FYI, it takes an order of magnitude more electrical pumping energy per acre-foot to push waste water/salt water through reverse osmosis filters than it does to pump that same amount of fresh water over the Tehachapi mountains to LA/San Diego, conventional filter, and then pressurize the water for distribution. There are reasons to use RO, but energy efficiency is not one of them.
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