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Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 18 Apr 2016, 22:39:43

the entire city had been basically shut down

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/04/18/ ... -reported/

With global average water vapor already elevate something over 6% by GW, then elevated further by El Nino evaporating all that ocean water, we now have prospects of massive flooding all over the planet as all this water condenses along with the cooling of an oncoming apparent La Nina.

A number of events have already shown us what is to come, most recently throughout the Plains States, but most notably in Houston, where

The Merciless Rains of Climate Change Hammer...Southeast Texas — 10-20 Inches Accumulation, More Than 1,200 Water Rescues Reported

Horrific scenes from other areas around the world from Yemen to Iran to Afghanistan to Chile To Russia to Australia...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/trave ... paign=1490

Likely coming soon to a floodplain near you!

https://www.facebook.com/NowThisNews/vi ... 7/?fref=nf
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Re: Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 18 Apr 2016, 23:28:13

Recall all those retention ponds I discussed previously?

They all just paid for themselves dozens of times over.

Instead of complaining about a 100 billion dollars in damage; we'll be whining about some drowned playground equipment, and some houses with wet carpet and sheet rock.
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Re: Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 18 Apr 2016, 23:32:41

I'm seeing pictures with lots of cars under water.

I think this may have overwhelmed the system you talked about, at least as far as some neighborhoods are concerned.

Thanks for piping in. I was thinking about you with this one.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =3&theater

And all those ponds doesn't seem to have saved these poor suckers:

At least 5 dead, hundreds rescued from high water in Houston

"There's flooding in every part of Houston...

Nine hospitals in the region were closed to additional patients because of the flooding, the mayor said. Three apartment buildings were evacuated and residents were being sheltered at a mall"

Soooo, yeah. A bit more than a bit of water damage to some carpets...

........

In general, this is how things are going to go...

Even places that think they have made adjustments and are ready for the next onslaught that Nature/GW has to offer will likely end up being overwhelmed (quite literally here) by ever more extreme events.
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Re: Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 18 Apr 2016, 23:44:40

Its not really something that gets "overwhelmed"; preventing all damage is dumb and overly expensive; as well, of note is that many of the neighborhoods they are showing as drowned predate the build-out of the flood control system.

It is NOT a flood prevention system. It controls and smooths the flood; so instead of a giant wall of water pouring down Buffalo Bayou destroying downtown Houston; the bayous (White Oak, Brays, and Buffalo) will stay high to just overbank for a substantially longer period.

So, will homes and cars get wet? Sure. Will the multi billion dollar medical center be destroyed? Nope.

What's more interesting to me, and potentially REALLY related to climate change, is the path/training of the rain and moisture; very atypical; in fact, I can't recall an event like this; motion was just all wrong. Like a cold front.. moving TO the north pole; trapped against a hard wall to the East. Just odd.
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Re: Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 18 Apr 2016, 23:51:54

"the path/training of the rain and moisture; very atypical; in fact, I can't recall an event like this; motion was just all wrong. Like a cold front.. moving TO the north pole; trapped against a hard wall to the East. Just odd."

Thanks for that insight--the kind of thing only long term careful observers on the ground are likely to notice, not outsiders like me.

I have no doubt that this flooding would have been worse without the measures taken earlier.

But really, we don't know yet just how bad the damage is or will be, or how many people will be killed or injured. Many places are still pretty inaccessible, and it sounds like rains may continue through Tuesday.

....

more here: http://www.wsj.com/articles/floods-in-h ... 1460994135

Floods Shut Down Most of Houston, With More Than 1,000 Rescued
Heavy rains force the cancellation of hundreds of flights and may have caused at least 5 deaths
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Re: Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Unread postby Paulo1 » Tue 19 Apr 2016, 10:28:51

All I can think about after the digestion of hundreds being flooded out, are the mosquitos. It will be a living hell. I used to work in the north and the bugs are one thing I will never miss. With the horrible humidity, I don't know how people can stand to live there? No offense given or intended with that question. Good luck.
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Re: Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 19 Apr 2016, 10:39:58

Good point, but I imagine they'll be spraying the hell out of a lot of these regions.
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Re: Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Unread postby AgentR11 » Tue 19 Apr 2016, 11:19:51

County's been running street sprayers since late February. (mostly because of zita I think. Just a cost / benefit analysis gives full payback if you prevent even a handful of cases). I'm not much on poisons myself, but I keep goldfish in each container of standing water; and check to make sure they're not slacking on their mosquito larva eating duties. Just a couple little garden ponds so the birds, squirrels, and frogs have water... and the neighborhood cat has something to stalk! (though, to be honest, I think the cat is too fat and lazy to actually catch anything). Others might dislike, but it just feels like a sign of a healthy living environment knowing that various native frogs and geckos seem to have no trouble hanging out.

Closer to the coast though, there's several hundred square miles of marsh, and the mosquito concentration there is just flat out unbelievable.

Still... if they really bug you, and you've had enough? DEET. Seriously, the stuff just works.

Webcam currently (UH Downtown, East side of DT Houston)
http://weather.weatherbug.com/cameras/weather/HSTNU

At 10am'ish Today, you can see Buffalo Bayou is high, up into the "Park" Bike Trail section; but roads are clear. Folks have been advised to mostly stay home, schools are closed. The interesting thing about this, is that it is WITHIN its flood control boundary; even while there is a massive amount of water upstream being delayed by the system. So, where in the past, it would come up and out, and the go back down within a day or so; the bayou will by high for several days, but won't wreck downtown.

The picture doesn't really show it well, but that is some very deep, fast moving water flowing under that bridge. A good 25ft+; in what is normally the gentle, brackish, tidal flow zone of Buffalo Bayou. (I've actually seen a tarpon up close, not far from there.. definitely lost, and not large of course)
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Re: Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 19 Apr 2016, 15:11:16

Thanks for the link and the perspective. I've heard that 9 hospitals are closed. Is there a lot of damage to such facilities as far as you know? Are you there now?
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Re: Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Unread postby AgentR11 » Tue 19 Apr 2016, 16:35:08

I don't live in downtown Houston anymore. That said; The Managers are trying to keep as many folks off the roads and out of downtown as possible; several underpasses have very deep water in them, offramps to several artereal streets are flooded; and traffic could get really, really bad, real fast. Which is would be bad because more rain is falling today and likely tomorrow; and if it falls in the wrong spots, there could be more ding dongs getting drowned in their cars because their schedule was more important than Gaia's schedule.

In any event, I don't know if there's been damage to the hospitals or to Houston's pedestrian tunnel system underneath downtown; but closure doesn't imply damage, it implies that road access to them is restricted by water. (ie, ambulance can't reliably get there.) Have to wait till next week to know really. If they talk damages in the 100 million range, all went well. If they talk in the 100 billion range, someone screwed up, and the flood control people will be getting a massive boost in power.... again.
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Re: Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 19 Apr 2016, 20:53:49

Yeah...100 billion here, 100 billion there...pretty soon you're talkin' about real money!! :-D
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Re: Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 20 Apr 2016, 02:17:22

Another powerful front now hitting North Texas. Intellicast gave no hint all day. Now that it's here, they changed the forecast.

Unfortunately it's following the same track that hit Houston last time.
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Re: Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 20 Apr 2016, 05:21:00

Looking more and more like it's going to hit Houston. And it's gotten bigger. Developing another line of strong cells behind the leading edge.
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Re: Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 20 Apr 2016, 08:21:01

Yes: when it rains a lot Houston floods. More specifically areas that have always flooded in the past will flood again. Thus the nature of life when one builds a house in a flood plain. And much of Houston has been built on known flood plains. And while efforts have been made to reduce the potential one cannot convert a flood plain to a "non-flood plain". In many of the worst subdivisions this has been the 5th or 6th major flood event in the last 40 years. When a creek has a proven historic flood peak 10' above normal base and you build your house next to the creek and 5' above the normal base you'll eventually be flooded. One might choose to ignore the math but it doesn't change the outcome.

And they will be flooded again and again in the next few decades. As far as the body count goes unfortunately it usually happens because folks repeatedly make the same bad decision: driving their vehicle into a flooded low lying area.
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Re: Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Unread postby Lore » Wed 20 Apr 2016, 09:25:05

Unfortunately flooding will be happening more frequently in the future for Houston. It won't just be coming from torrential rain either, but the rising seas. Goodbye Houston!
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Re: Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 20 Apr 2016, 11:40:52

Good points. The next time it is likely to be a combination of

•this level of rain (or higher!) on top of

•40+ foot surge from the sea from a category 5 hurricane (as happened with Haiyan, iirc), on top of

•a king tide, on top of

•accelerating general sea level rise, on top possibly

•locally augmented by the slowdown in AMOC...

Some combination of at least some of these is pretty much a guarantee going forward.

It will not be a gradual move inland as sea level gradually rises and flooding gradually increases.

It will be mostly denial denial denial denial....then TOTAL AND UTTER DISASTER

:)
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Re: Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 20 Apr 2016, 13:37:28

“It won't just be coming from torrential rain either, but the rising seas. Goodbye Houston!” Houston will be around for a long time: downtown stands about 50 feet (15 m) above sea level, and the highest point in far northwest Houston is about 125 feet (38 m) in elevation. Galveston will go first. OTOH it might be time to invest in some future beach front property in south Houston. LOL.

OTOH much of NYC is 15’ to 25’ closer to sea level then Houston. Trump Tower = Trump Island. LOL.
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Re: Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Unread postby Lore » Wed 20 Apr 2016, 14:12:25

ROCKMAN wrote:“It won't just be coming from torrential rain either, but the rising seas. Goodbye Houston!” Houston will be around for a long time: downtown stands about 50 feet (15 m) above sea level, and the highest point in far northwest Houston is about 125 feet (38 m) in elevation. Galveston will go first. OTOH it might be time to invest in some future beach front property in south Houston. LOL.

OTOH much of NYC is 15’ to 25’ closer to sea level then Houston. Trump Tower = Trump Island. LOL.


Rest assured Rock you'll probably be dead, but for any youngster coming up it may not be the best place to put your roots. Like many coastal areas it will be the constant barrage that eats away at the infrastructure which will begin to drive people out.
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Re: Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Unread postby AgentR11 » Wed 20 Apr 2016, 15:09:01

Lore wrote:Unfortunately flooding will be happening more frequently in the future for Houston. It won't just be coming from torrential rain either, but the rising seas. Goodbye Houston!


Err, you know nothing about Houston by writing that statement. We abandon buildings at a rate much faster than sea level rise encroachment; and our ground level is, and has been for decades, subsiding at a rate far faster than sea level rise.

Houston is like an Amoeba. It moves West and North gradually over time. Slow by human perception, but compared to the rate of sea level rise? Downtown Houston will be at 150 ft msl long before Sea Level rise makes +5 ft. There are no geographic, political, hydrological, or legal impediments to this motion; and there never will be. We even got a new outer loop tollway up and running this year; its awesome, its fast, and it will suck development North and West like a giant vacuum cleaner.

As an aside, Cid; today's rain and motion were normal; no bizarre West->East training; no brickwall northward pump action. Just a regular cool front, crossing the area. We got about a half inch of rain and some cooler air for a bit here. Not even much wind. Should provoke nothing more than some regular street flooding in low lying areas.
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Re: Houston, We Have A Problem--Floods Shut It Down

Unread postby Lore » Wed 20 Apr 2016, 16:59:00

AgentR11 wrote:
Lore wrote:Unfortunately flooding will be happening more frequently in the future for Houston. It won't just be coming from torrential rain either, but the rising seas. Goodbye Houston!


Err, you know nothing about Houston by writing that statement. We abandon buildings at a rate much faster than sea level rise encroachment; and our ground level is, and has been for decades, subsiding at a rate far faster than sea level rise.


They better get ready to abandon it much faster than before.

You may know Houston, but as for people they are not just going to keep moving a few miles inland as there will be nothing to keep them in the area and every reason to leave. At about 13 meters Houston becomes a swamp. Just my guess, but if current conditions persist to accelerate we will be at more than half of that by the end of the century, if not sooner. Most residents will have long been gone before then. Most likely as soon as the coast dissappears along with the antiquated oil industry. The only ones left will be those that wern't smart enough to get out in time.
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