Peak Oil News and Message Boards

Posted: **Fri 17 Jun 2016, 10:08:43**

dohboi wrote:Sorry to hear that she died. How many more will follow?

I hate to put a barbaric edge to it; but we will not run out of people who will kill themselves in moving water. Fortunately, all swift water rescue training harps relentlessly on the "do not become a victim" rule; so smart, well educated, wise people will not harm themselves trying to save darwin award winners.

And yet more proof that events alone, no matter how extreme, do not necessarily change minds.

Ask yourself: Which is more important, saying the words "climate change", or incorporating the current science in precipitation models and building appropriate infrastructure to handle the changes to rainfall (&SLR/subsidence) and land use. Personally, I vote for infrastructure minded people.

And again, I'll note, Houston, and Texas in general handled the rainfall and flood event marvelously. Friggin work of art as far as I'm concerned. I'm gonna end up with enough firewood for centuries worth of bbq though. (3 large oaks, and 2 massive oaks down... uggg!)

Posted: **Fri 17 Jun 2016, 10:30:15**

AgentR11 wrote:
Lore wrote:If Texan's had to admit that there was a problem

Of course there's a problem. We spend, and will continue to spend, billions of dollars mitigating said problem. Problem predates the "climate change" debate, though is amplified by it. I do have to admit though, I'd much rather be living where we have to deal with too much water, rather than too little.

I don't believe Texans spend much time in reflective contemplation. And I'm not just picking on them.

"reflective contemplation" is useless. Building real mitigation, making real changes in drainage, pouring real concrete, and using real science. THAT is worth doing. And that is exactly what we DO. We have no need of the political jibber-jabber in order to estimate the amount of water needing management.

Being defiant to the end can get you killed.

Political words do not kill. Failure to act kills. And one thing is absolutely true; we act.

What the Left wants us to do is waste money babbling about carbon; money that could have been used to build more retention ponds or buyout homes along creeks and bayous.

Sounds great! When is Texas going to do all this?

Posted: **Fri 17 Jun 2016, 11:41:20**

Lore wrote:Sounds great! When is Texas going to do all this?

We've been doing it for at least the past two decades; and we're absolute Pro at it now. Obscene amounts of money spent on the effort; and we will continue doing exactly that for as long as the US Dollar is the coin of the realm, and ships travel up Buffalo Bayou.

See, this is where yall screw up so badly. You have this idea that mitigation projects are one off affairs; some great facility of global notice, that then is overwhelmed eventually by the power of climate change; all played to some tragic music score.

Its not.

Its a hole in the ground.
Followed by another.
Followed by another.
repeated, unendingly, iteratively, constantly. No end. Ever.

THAT is mitigation. THAT is flood control.
And THAT is why Houston suffered no significant infrastructure damage from that incredible sequence of storms we had just recently.

Houston's mitigation WORKED AS DESIGNED.

I know that just chaps you raw, but we used the real science, and used real engineering, and really did (and continue to) build the appropriate mitigation responses to climate change.

We will not stop either.

Though.. we won't use the word "climate change" in politics either!

Posted: **Tue 26 Jul 2016, 18:43:11**

https://twitter.com/HoustonOEM/status/7 ... 4092809216

Flood Advisory for Southern parts of Houston

...

Sierra Club Verified account ‏@sierraclub 3h3 hours ago

Flood concerns rise as wetlands are paved over outside Houston

Posted: **Tue 26 Jul 2016, 20:58:22**

You're really going to post that Houston has a problem every time there is street flooding????

Houston has never, not had street flooding to go with strong or training rain storms.

Yes, paving over wetlands is a problem, but this kind of flooding from rain events is NORMAL. These aren't even weird storms. Lots of rain, falling real fast, on a very, VERY flat surface, equals flooding.

To watch for dangerous events for Houston, you have to watch the flood stage of Buffalo, White Oak, and Bray's bayou; and in the north, Spring & Cypress Creeks, as well as the San Jac and Brazos Rivers. If those are within their banks, (and they are), there is no threat to anything interesting at all from flooding.

That said, now that I got my new roof, paint, and deck all sealed... its stopped raining where I am. Ground is starting to do the powder-puff dust thing.... At least its cloudy and not quite so hot.

Posted: **Tue 26 Jul 2016, 23:57:13**

I just wanted to see if you were still looking at these threads! :-D

Stay safe and dry, A!

Posted: **Wed 27 Jul 2016, 09:06:49**

Funniest damn sight yesterday. Going down Main St thru the Med Center and had to go thru underpass. Two cars stopped ahead of me afraid to drive forward. Been driving in areas with flooding potential for almost 5 decades so I appreciate their concern. But a little common sense is needed: I pulled up and could see the top of the curb. IOW the water was less the 4". So I drive thru slowly with no problem. Looked back and both lanes were backed up by two cars that wouldn't drive thru. Fear isn't bad. Unwarranted fear is childish.

Posted: **Wed 27 Jul 2016, 12:35:25**

Thanks for letting us know about the situation, R. And yeah, sometimes people replace caution and careful observation with blind fear, inconveniencing everyone else in the process.

The larger point about the paving wetlands is that, yes, Houston (and many other cities) have done some smart things wrt controlling water flow. But stupid things will also continue to be done because of the profit motive and the sheer cussedness of the human predicament.

And as things careen ever more wildly out of whack, small (not to mention large) stupidnesses will have larger and larger negative consequences on more and more people.

Posted: **Thu 13 Oct 2016, 17:11:49**

https://weather.com/science/environment ... -hurricane

Houston's Next Large Hurricane Could Be the City's 'Doom,' Researcher Says

Well, you Houston enthusiasts, what do you say now?

...researchers from Rice University provided a worst-case hurricane scenario based on models and research, which they are calling "Hurricane Isaiah."

Nice touch, that!

he researchers say the yet-to-happen imaginary storm will likely be one of the worst disasters in U.S. history, adding that it's only a matter of time before the imaginary becomes reality.

"Isaiah is basically Hurricane Ike plus about 15 percent," Jim Blackburn, co-director of Rice’s Severe Storm Prediction, Education and Evacuation from Disaster (SSPEED) Center, told KHOU.com. "We wanted to create a larger storm and put it in the worst conditions to see what our vulnerability is. Our vulnerability is immense. We are very vulnerable to a big hurricane."

Blackburn's worst-case scenario takes into account what the storm surge from a big hurricane could do to the Houston Ship Channel’s petrochemical complex and the people who live near it.

"We think with a 25-foot surge, you'd be looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 million gallons of oil and hazardous substance being spilled. That would devastate Galveston Bay," Blackburn told KHOU.com. "A 25-foot surge would cover the entire Clear Lake area. It would flood the Houston Ship Channel all the way to downtown Houston."

In anticipation of the next major hurricane to hit the area, ideas have been floating around for years to protect the city from a devastating hurricane, including the construction of a coastal spine called the "Ike Dike" or measures to enhance levees that are already in place.

Unfortunately, as Blackburn points out, there’s still no funding in place for those projects, which could cost several billion dollars.

Posted: **Thu 13 Oct 2016, 17:50:12**

Forcasts are alqays accurate and should be used for your planning for the future. Especially gov forcasts which must be totally accurate or they would not be released to the public. SC

Posted: **Fri 14 Oct 2016, 09:02:29**

?
Relevance? This was a study by Rice University, not by 'the government.'

Posted: **Sat 15 Oct 2016, 09:11:41**

dohboi wrote:https://weather.com/science/environment/news/houston-texas-hurricane
Houston's Next Large Hurricane Could Be the City's 'Doom,' Researcher Says
Well, you Houston enthusiasts, what do you say now?

Its always been true. We're not as vulnerable as New Orleans of course, but a hurricane of large size (position and size more important that cat#) could park over Galveston Bay and completely drown the city. That was true this year, it was true in 1960, and it was true when Houston was founded.

If you'll recall, Houston was nearly drowned a few years back by a tropical storm; because it was big, and it stalled in the wrong place.

Unfortunately, as Blackburn points out, there’s still no funding in place for those projects, which could cost several billion dollars.

Such projects will not be built. Moving capacity after such a storm is more effective and efficient. Such a storm can completely redraw the coast line of a place like Galveston Bay, it can move channels, it can cut and close straights across Galveston Island. There's no point in assuming that even if you saved a certain facility, that it would even be in a location that could be serviced.

Posted: **Sat 15 Oct 2016, 09:16:58**

cover the entire Clear Lake area. It would flood the Houston Ship Channel all the way to downtown Houston

People don't realize it because most of the facilities of the Ship Channel are now East of downtown; but the ship channel proper; eg, the tidal zone of Buffalo Bayou runs all the way to Shepherd, WEST of Downtown; I've actually seen, eyeball-to-eyeball an estuary sized tarpon(~24") WEST of Downtown. There's lots of old remnant tie ups and such far West of the current facilities.

Posted: **Sat 15 Oct 2016, 09:42:37**

"Its always been true."
Thanks for the admission. With the possibility of ever larger storms, I would say, though, that it is more likely than ever that such a storm could occur.

" Shepherd, WEST of Downtown"

I'm confused. The town of Shepherd is about 60 miles NNE of Houston. Are you talking about some other 'Shepherd'?

But yeah, that Buffalo Bayou/Trinity Creek sure doesn't seem to gain much elevation for a long ways up river.

Posted: **Sat 15 Oct 2016, 10:56:35**

dohboi wrote:I'm confused. The town of Shepherd is about 60 miles NNE of Houston. Are you talking about some other 'Shepherd'?

Yeah, Shepherd Drive. Its where the USGS stream flow gauge is located at the end of the tidal zone of the bayou.

Posted: **Sat 15 Oct 2016, 11:02:18**

dohboi wrote:"Its always been true."
Thanks for the admission. With the possibility of ever larger storms, I would say, though, that it is more likely than ever that such a storm could occur.

I think you're missing my point. It doesn't take a particularly horrible storm to do what the study talks about. It just has to land on the right track at the right speed.

I know you want to tie this in with climate change; but there's really no change in risk involved here; its a risk that has existed since the city was founded; and its a risk common to most Gulf Coast cities.

Posted: **Sat 15 Oct 2016, 16:36:01**

"Shepherd Drive"

Ah, I see. Thanks. I thought it must be something like that. I'm pretty ignorant of the area, except for what I can glean from google maps and such.

As to risk, I would still say that a bigger storm will mean a bigger risk. And we are seeing bigger storms, including rainstorms that produce rainfalls as large as hurricane, as seen recently in SW Louisiana.

Here's hoping you and yours avoid the worst going forward. (And that you have plenty of popcorn as you enjoy the spectacle of the rest of us going down with the ship! :shock: