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The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 02 Apr 2016, 15:04:23

This is very long, please read at link below the quote. I think it will be well worth your effort to do so and would like to hear your honest assessment after you read it. No I did not write it, but the link was posted to the peak oil facebook page which I read to get ideas to share around here.

Despite human fossil fuel burning recently reported to be “flat”, CO2 levels have been on a tear for the last six months, reaching new worrying levels which have some wondering whether permafrost melt may be contributing to the unusually high spike if no decline happens soon. The giant holes in Siberia serve as an ominous sign. Considering that the current El Niño is contributing only 10% to what we are now seeing, runaway global warming may be accelerating worldwide. But don’t worry, Warren Buffett says climate change is no more of a problem than the Y2K bug and will be profitable through increased premiums and inflation.

Ever dire studies continue to reaffirm worst case scenarios, making clear to anyone paying attention that Earth in the next century will be unrecognizable from its current state. Basic planetary geography and atmospheric conditions will be altered through warming oceans and rising sea levels which are now increasing faster than at any time in the past 2800 years. On average, sea levels were between 50 and 82 feet higher the last time CO2 levels were at 400ppm. Glaciologist Jason Box expects ice melt from the West Antarctic to become the biggest contributor to sea level rise in the coming decades due to a feedback loop not in the climate models. CO2 levels have been increasing around 3ppm per year, a twentyfold increase since pre-industrial times when the highest recorded increase was 0.15 ppm per year. We’ve long since passed the tipping point of melting Arctic summer sea ice; 300-350 ppm of CO2 was the threshold for many parts of the climate. These changes are irreversible on a timescale of human civilizations. Even if all human industrial activity magically ceased today, the footprint man has already left will be felt for eons.

In our warming world, the hydrologic cycle is changing and creating extreme weather; crop-destroying droughts and floods are becoming more frequent. The Jet Stream is transforming into something different, becoming wavier with higher ridges and troughs prone to stagnating in the same region. As global temperatures rise over time, hotter air will be trapped under these layers of high pressure from a mangled Jet Stream, cooking everything to death. Rising winter temperatures are beginning to destroy the “winter chill” needed for many fruit and nut trees to properly blossom and produce maximally. Climate change is also disrupting flower pollination and pushing fish toward North/South poles, robbing poorer countries at Equator of crucial food resources. In a new study, marine scientists are surprised to find a disturbing trend in the increasing numbers of a specific type of phytoplankton, coccolithophores, which have been “typically more abundant during Earth’s warm interglacial and high CO2 periods.”


http://collapseofindustrialcivilization ... astrophes/
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Re: The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 02 Apr 2016, 15:22:15

I wonder about the fact that since the already the overall state of the the biosphere and its composite ecosystems is pretty poor, will that mean that the added pressures bought by climate change will be even more devastating than in past rapidly warming periods?
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Re: The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

Unread postby Milret2 » Sat 02 Apr 2016, 15:25:10

I must admit, this seemed pretty much the situation to me some years ago as I looked around from my comfortable life at what common publications and people were saying about environmental change and the effect of monoculture/too many humans/capitalistic drives/war/human nature. I suspect that such is petty much inevitable and might well be why there is no evidence of higher life forms anywhere else in the Universe we can access.

I just live my life one day at a time and try to be kind. I am 65 years old and would not at all be surprised to see really bad things happen soon to life on earth. I know of no way to proceed except as I do. I am quite happy NOT to have any direct descendants.
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Re: The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

Unread postby americandream » Sat 02 Apr 2016, 17:04:36

I read a lot of political stuff from the past and after having read up on and digested the implications of the debacle of the Cold War (oh here he goes again with his communist stuff I hear some sigh, not wanting to face the truth but instead happy to blame the third world), I pretty much realised that we were in one helluva mess.

We could have cobbled together something that was workeable using the consumerless Soviet model, but with that defeated, consumerism has gone on steroids and over these past 20 years has transformed China and India into voracious emitters as well as included the former Soviet states in there. Added to that, our gold plated sports car driving Arab friends have obliged us our craziness by pumping out the stuff as fast as we could drink it.

Capitalism as it is, full on Western style consumerism, hobbling along with more strife, now with the Arabs, and risking going on with no real resolution for the masses who are like deer in the headlights of a distracted world consuming at a voracious rate, will set of a very nasty climate transition like nothing on our historic records and one that very highly like could even exceed the wildest expectations of the analysts...and very quickly. Unless we have a complete and swift revolution to a consumerless consumer communism as it was set up and not subsequently messed about with by Nixon and Mao (or have some sort of innovation that can do the fixit business on a global scale), well I am pretty sure we are toast. No way this planet can endure this endless stream of fossil fuel based emissions into its gaseous blanket without there being a very swift transition into I would suggest Venusian conditions.
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Re: The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

Unread postby GHung » Sat 02 Apr 2016, 17:11:54

Expecting these consequences to be less non-linear than the increase in human population over the last ~200 years is, of course, an example of the linear/binary thinking most humans employ. Just as population increases exponentially with more energy and resource inputs, so will the consequences of our collective behaviour, and the consequences will continue well after our population and consumption begin to decline.

From the opening of the article:

"Despite human fossil fuel burning recently reported to be “flat”, CO2 levels have been on a tear for the last six months, reaching new worrying levels which have some wondering whether permafrost melt may be contributing to the unusually high spike if no decline happens soon.

Wondering? Really? I stopped wondering about the obvious years ago. All one has to do is cast off one's delusions regarding simple causes and effects.
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Re: The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

Unread postby americandream » Sat 02 Apr 2016, 17:43:34

GHung wrote:Expecting these consequences to be less non-linear than the increase in human population over the last ~200 years is, of course, an example of the linear/binary thinking most humans employ. Just as population increases exponentially with more energy and resource inputs, so will the consequences of our collective behaviour, and the consequences will continue well after our population and consumption begin to decline.

From the opening of the article:

"Despite human fossil fuel burning recently reported to be “flat”, CO2 levels have been on a tear for the last six months, reaching new worrying levels which have some wondering whether permafrost melt may be contributing to the unusually high spike if no decline happens soon.

Wondering? Really? I stopped wondering about the obvious years ago. All one has to do is cast off one's delusions regarding simple causes and effects.


Population is the effect, not the cause. The cause is the geo-political fcuk up that saw over half of this world dragged at the end of the gun, into the world of infinite consumerism (and it continues to go on right before our eyes today...right now as the last residue is mopped up into a monstrous mutant feudo-capitalism (which far exceeds anything contemplated by history and stemming from this unholy alliance between Islam and corrupt and incompetent elites.)

Using population as an excuse is the equivalent of blaming a woman for being a prostitute even as her pimp beats the shit out of her and onto the street.
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Re: The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

Unread postby GHung » Sat 02 Apr 2016, 18:47:29

Population => consumption => 'progress' => more population => more consumption => more 'progress'... ; technology-induced feedback loops. Human behavior hasn't changed much in thousands of years; only their technology has.
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Re: The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 02 Apr 2016, 18:51:02

GHung wrote:Population => consumption => 'progress' => more population => more consumption => more 'progress'... ; technology-induced feedback loops. Human behavior hasn't changed much in thousands of years; only their technology has.

Excellent comment. Makes me think of the great quote by E.O Wilson " The problem with humanity is we have paleolithic emotions; medieval institutions; and god-like technology."
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Re: The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

Unread postby americandream » Sat 02 Apr 2016, 18:56:22

GHung wrote:Population => consumption => 'progress' => more population => more consumption => more 'progress'... ; technology-induced feedback loops. Human behavior hasn't changed much in thousands of years; only their technology has.


You have an arse about face understanding of Darwinian dialectics...its the excuse primitivists use to skirt the real issues.
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Re: The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Sat 02 Apr 2016, 19:10:55

americandream wrote:
GHung wrote:Population => consumption => 'progress' => more population => more consumption => more 'progress'... ; technology-induced feedback loops. Human behavior hasn't changed much in thousands of years; only their technology has.


You have an arse about face understanding of Darwinian dialectics...its the excuse primitivists use to skirt the real issues.

Boy, GHung must have made you mad about something.
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Re: The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

Unread postby americandream » Sat 02 Apr 2016, 19:27:06

Hawkcreek wrote:
americandream wrote:
GHung wrote:Population => consumption => 'progress' => more population => more consumption => more 'progress'... ; technology-induced feedback loops. Human behavior hasn't changed much in thousands of years; only their technology has.


You have an arse about face understanding of Darwinian dialectics...its the excuse primitivists use to skirt the real issues.

Boy, GHung must have made you mad about something.


Its like talking to the mentally retarded.

I mean.....what does it take to realise that population problems today are a function of the geo-political fcukups yesterday. AND that the answer does not lie in head chopping all the infidels as these "Muslims", (to borrow a label of universal finger pointing), East and West would like to do, but remove the mindset behind the geo-political fcuk up. Or at least, at least, acknowledge that vast areas of this planet under governments with progressive policies on women (Ethiopia to name one) were branded communist and systematically destroyed.

Retardation frustrates me, of course! Happens!
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Re: The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 02 Apr 2016, 19:36:01

Hawkcreek wrote:
americandream wrote:
GHung wrote:Population => consumption => 'progress' => more population => more consumption => more 'progress'... ; technology-induced feedback loops. Human behavior hasn't changed much in thousands of years; only their technology has.


You have an arse about face understanding of Darwinian dialectics...its the excuse primitivists use to skirt the real issues.

Boy, GHung must have made you mad about something.


GHung isn't the only one he hates, seems I'm on his list as well. He seems to have some kind of persecution complex. I just ignore. Tends to wreck otherwise good threads.
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Re: The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 02 Apr 2016, 20:00:09

Tanda,

I did not give it a careful read but did, I think, absorb the gist. I do not see anything new here. It strikes me as the ramblings of someone who has recently swallowed a blue pill. If he is like me when the reality first hits you you want to run out and tell everyone for surely this is BIG news. Life changing, Earth shattering news.

Except no one really cares.

So to the author I would say...Welcome to the club, here, have a drink. Watch the show.

Sorry, not trying to diminish his thoughts, the realizations are difficult, at least they still are for me. Its just that I think we have seen and heard this before, often from our own mouths.
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Re: The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

Unread postby americandream » Sat 02 Apr 2016, 20:13:15

Newfie wrote:
Hawkcreek wrote:
americandream wrote:
GHung wrote:Population => consumption => 'progress' => more population => more consumption => more 'progress'... ; technology-induced feedback loops. Human behavior hasn't changed much in thousands of years; only their technology has.


You have an arse about face understanding of Darwinian dialectics...its the excuse primitivists use to skirt the real issues.

Boy, GHung must have made you mad about something.


GHung isn't the only one he hates, seems I'm on his list as well. He seems to have some kind of persecution complex. I just ignore. Tends to wreck otherwise good threads.


I only wreck it to the extent that I challenge the fantasies perpetuated by a few on here who forever sing the population mantra when that is clearly wrong. If that upsets you, then you need to be examining just how sincere you are in your liberalism. You repeatedly give succour to the reactionary forces that brought us to this juncture and if we are to die, let it be with some dignity and historic truth.

Nor do I hate anyone. I have no clue as to who you are and I have no desire to meet or otherwise get to know you. I am only here to set the record straight as an exercise in a more active global role in the future and you are a mere test subject as to how I finesse that skill as views like yours abound in this world, and need addressing whether we survive or not.
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Re: The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

Unread postby americandream » Sat 02 Apr 2016, 20:30:51

I am happy to keep out of scientific discussion as that is an area I can learn and I presume not to derail that. But pointing the finger at the former Soviets and former progressive third world I will challenge, in an unpersonal explanation of the facts which are all over the web if you care to look and cannot, as many of you seem to, not understand British English.

Neither of these two played any culpable role in the mess we find today. That lies firmly at the the door of Western and Islamic geo-politics.
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Re: The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 02 Apr 2016, 23:26:36

"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

Unread postby americandream » Sat 02 Apr 2016, 23:40:10



How fatal a is consumer individuality without end than a non-consumer collectivisation with flaws. Read the old news items and marvel at the fact that the Soviets (collectives) grew their food in local communes and had few supermarkets....which of course is a no no as a measure of JIT civilisation. Lets remind ourselves what Marx said about this "civilising" phenomenon so evident in bourgeoisie society, even amongst those who live by the sale of their labour:

It (the bourgeoisie) compels all nations, on pain of extinction, to adopt the bourgeois mode of production; it compels them to introduce what it calls civilisation into their midst, i.e., to become bourgeois themselves. In one word, it creates a world after its own image.

Then you people come on here moaning about the plastic stuffed oceans, blaming the Chinese or some other poor wretch you either bludgeoned or bribed into this sorry game, for the dying trees and of course, the limits....oh, the limits. Incredible!!

This exercise I am embarked on is to gauge the extent of stupid out there and tailor my message accordingly. I assume the worse and that is the tack I am taking....we want a sustainable society....lets see whether people have a grasp of what that involves.
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Re: The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

Unread postby hvacman » Sat 02 Apr 2016, 23:57:02

I agree with Newfie. I ranted like the author about the world collapsing back in the early-70's during the initial oil embargo crisis. My aunt had given me a copy of "The Last Whole Earth Catalog" as a high school graduation gift in 1971 and started my journey into self-reliance. In 1975, the the Dean of Engineering at San Jose State, who taught the "senior studies" class required of all engineering majors just before graduating, had us all reading "Limits to Growth". Can you believe it? Back in 1975, we budding young engineers in a very BAU-university setting actually were being exposed to PO-like concepts that are still controversial among the mainstream. And we were freaking out in our class, because we UNDERSTOOD THE EXPONENTIAL CURVE. But things move slowly. Here it is, 41 years later, an engineering career almost behind me, and the sun still rises and sets, it still rains, except when it doesn't. Which has always been the case. It still is hot in Redding in the summer and cold in the winter. I'm figuring out how to future-proof my approaching retirement as best-as-possible and lining up to watch the show, at least as long as I'm around. But some things do change. The Fremont GM assembly plant where my step-dad worked from 1963-1982 building trucks? Now Tesla's home-base for manufacturing change-the-world EV's. Things change slowly, but they change. Oh, and nowadays, you actually can see Mission Peak almost every day (so I have heard). (For those not from the Bay Area, Mission Peak is the highest point in Fremont and in the 1960's/70's, the Bay Area smog could get so bad the peak would disappear from view.) Sea levels may rise and the air may get warmer, but some things actually are getting better.
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Re: The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

Unread postby americandream » Sun 03 Apr 2016, 00:27:30

hvacman wrote:I agree with Newfie. I ranted like the author about the world collapsing back in the early-70's during the initial oil embargo crisis. My aunt had given me a copy of "The Last Whole Earth Catalog" as a high school graduation gift in 1971 and started my journey into self-reliance. In 1975, the the Dean of Engineering at San Jose State, who taught the "senior studies" class required of all engineering majors just before graduating, had us all reading "Limits to Growth". Can you believe it? Back in 1975, we budding young engineers in a very BAU-university setting actually were being exposed to PO-like concepts that are still controversial among the mainstream. And we were freaking out in our class, because we UNDERSTOOD THE EXPONENTIAL CURVE. But things move slowly. Here it is, 41 years later, an engineering career almost behind me, and the sun still rises and sets, it still rains, except when it doesn't. Which has always been the case. It still is hot in Redding in the summer and cold in the winter. I'm figuring out how to future-proof my approaching retirement as best-as-possible and lining up to watch the show, at least as long as I'm around. But some things do change. The Fremont GM assembly plant where my step-dad worked from 1963-1982 building trucks? Now Tesla's home-base for manufacturing change-the-world EV's. Things change slowly, but they change. Oh, and nowadays, you actually can see Mission Peak almost every day (so I have heard). (For those not from the Bay Area, Mission Peak is the highest point in Fremont and in the 1960's/70's, the Bay Area smog could get so bad the peak would disappear from view.) Sea levels may rise and the air may get warmer, but some things actually are getting better.


Ok...and before you lay into me for hating or some other nonsense, this is a polite query. How do you see infinite growth vis a vis the environment panning out. I am always happy to get a view that has a logical sequentiality to it. So what forms you views from what you see around you other than the fatigue of time.
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Re: The Stark Realities of Baked-In Catastrophes

Unread postby GHung » Sun 03 Apr 2016, 09:36:37

Regarding americandream-in-his-own-mind and his comments; I'll not engage with egotistical a'holes other than to say I won't engage with egotistical a'holes who've clearly taken their self-aggrandisement to intolerable levels.
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