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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postPosted: Mon 11 Sep 2017, 18:36:53
by Newfie
The problem with suffering is it's unlikely that any of us here get to pick and. choose exactly who gets to suffer.

Nor are any of us here sufficiently omnipresent to know who deserves to suffer how much.

As first worlders we are each contributing to the coming tradgedy. And let's not pick and choose which tradgedy will attend first in order to feel righteous. I don't care if it's peak oil, climate change, globalization, or water crisIs, a good case can be made that each of us has a hand in this mess.

So get over yourselves with the high and mighty crap where you have self appointed yourself king of the universe and get to direct who suffers how much.

If you are bored here are two little tasks to cogetate over.
1. What can I do to lessen suffering?
2. What can I do to protect me and mine from suffering?

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postPosted: Mon 11 Sep 2017, 19:01:42
by Cliffhanger1983
The self-centered inconsiderate people in this world need to suffer. :twisted:


They will. The elites are trapped like rats and they know it...

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postPosted: Mon 11 Sep 2017, 20:00:28
by ralfy
Just use the "Ignore" function. It's in the user control panel, under the "Friends and Foes" tab.

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postPosted: Fri 15 Sep 2017, 15:59:29
by onlooker
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... anity.html
1 in 20 chance , climate change will wipe us out by 2100,
Oh and I personally do not wish anyone to suffer. I do wish some types of people would disappear from this planet.

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postPosted: Fri 15 Sep 2017, 16:04:54
by pstarr
Cog wrote:I give pstarr credit here for at least one thing. He might be a hippie or a commie, :-D , but he has rejected climate change doom in favor of peak oil doom. Which means he does understand how oil is wrapped up into the very fabric of how we function as an industrialized civilization. He is probably wrong about his embrace of the ETP model but he isn't wrong about how oil is essential for a modern society.

Imagine my delight. The guys who (thinks he) knows everything likes me.

Swoon

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postPosted: Fri 15 Sep 2017, 17:04:43
by Plantagenet
Onlooker's post above is important. Its official now---for the first time its been published in a respected scientific journal. We've got at at least a 5% chance of going extinct over the next 80 years due to global warming. Here is a more technical report on this new scientific research.

climate-potential-existential-threat

And given how conservative scientists tend to be, the actual chance of going extinct by 2100 has to be higher. Maybe a lot higher.

Image
Human extinction due to climate change-----now a distinct possibility.

Cheers!

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postPosted: Fri 15 Sep 2017, 17:29:26
by onlooker
Yes, and it is noteworthy I think for two reasons. First it is the assessment from a scientific origin. Second, they are using methods similar to the Limits to Growth in the Seventies, which ran different scenarios based on the input of different data. In this case it involves different emission scenarios which would obviously then produce different outcomes.
But I hasten to link a link I posted on the Runaway Global Warming thread. It is how it appears 19 different feedback loops have already been activated. If this conclusion is taken seriously then this study which we are talking about may need to try and incorporate this self perpetuating feedbacks into its assessment of emission scenarios. I do not know if that is possible, as from some of you I have learned that incorporating feedback loops into projections or computer simulations is very difficult. Here is the link
http://transitionvoice.com/2013/08/19-w ... ng-itself/

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postPosted: Fri 15 Sep 2017, 18:59:59
by pstarr
"It is how it appears 19 different feedback loops have already been activated."

onlooker, don't forget the negative (20th) feedback loops of CO2 fertilization. It may be a stronger reverse forcing than all the others combined. We don't know yet, too recent a phenomena to be modeled, only observed. I wouldn't be surprised if the climate planet becomes more temperate. :) 8)

And then there is Number 21 (another negative) feedback loop: increased vegetative coverage gives additional canopy, shading of the soil, and results in decreased soil surface water evaporation (in addition to reduced stomata evaporation). This will cool surface temperatures . . . not just locally but on a continent level.

Number 22 (another negative) feedback is peak oil. But that screws all the forcings :? Back at least it will be back to normal, climate wise. Whatever that is lol

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postPosted: Fri 15 Sep 2017, 19:06:29
by vtsnowedin
onlooker wrote:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4888574/1-20-chance-climate-change-wipe-humanity.html
1 in 20 chance , climate change will wipe us out by 2100,
Oh and I personally do not wish anyone to suffer. I do wish some types of people would disappear from this planet.

So I have a 19 to 1 chance of my grandchildren's children carrying on? Have the odds ever been any better then that? Now I won't say that that nasty one chance in twenty is not there. After all nuclear war with one of the fools and insane people that now have the technology is possible and add in a few crop failures (global climate change or just random events) and might even be likely.
But extinction is a hard thing to achieve for the human race. You have to make every square mile of the earths land surface unable to support human life and humans have shown great adaptability to any conditions presented to them.
People talk of colonizing Mars at the same time they predict the demise of the human race on a slightly warmer Earth?
I think I'll stay here on Earth and fight it out. My chances are at least 19 to 1.

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postPosted: Fri 15 Sep 2017, 19:10:20
by Plantagenet
vtsnowedin wrote: I think I'll stay here on Earth and fight it out. My chances are at least 19 to 1.


Me too.

James Lovelock, originator of the Gaia Hypothesis, predicts that by the year 2100 humanity will be extinct except for a "few breeding pairs" of humans hiding from the heat above the Arctic Circle.

I intend to be in one of those breeding pairs. I'll be really really old by the year 2100, but I hereby pledge that I'll do my best to breed and keep humanity going. :)

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postPosted: Fri 15 Sep 2017, 21:48:56
by pstarr
Plantagenet wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: I think I'll stay here on Earth and fight it out. My chances are at least 19 to 1.


Me too.

James Lovelock, originator of the Gaia Hypothesis, predicts that by the year 2100 humanity will be extinct except for a "few breeding pairs" of humans hiding from the heat above the Arctic Circle.

I intend to be in one of those breeding pairs. I'll be really really old by the year 2100, but I hereby pledge that I'll do my best to breed and keep humanity going. :)
you really need to keep up. Lovelock recanted on his doom and apologized for his sins.

Cheers!

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postPosted: Fri 15 Sep 2017, 21:52:22
by SeaGypsy
Coz Antarctica is going to be too cold still? Sheesh. It's two islands & two weeks by sailboat from here, probably a bit less hectic at TEOTWAWKI than the arctic.

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postPosted: Fri 15 Sep 2017, 23:12:33
by dohboi
Plant... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBEmLhO4KO4


as to the rest, please dftt

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postPosted: Sat 16 Sep 2017, 05:13:31
by M_B_S

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postPosted: Sat 16 Sep 2017, 15:22:30
by pstarr
pstarr wrote:And then there is Number 21 (another negative) feedback loop: increased vegetative coverage gives additional canopy, shading of the soil, and results in decreased soil surface water evaporation (in addition to reduced stomata evaporation). This will cool surface temperatures . . . not just locally but on a continent level.


Cosmos, 26 MAY 2017

It discusses the complexity of earth's entire biological system, of which humans, plants and CO2 are a vital part. It's a counterbalance to global warming, a negative feedback effects that levels out climate. So increased vegetation (a consequence of CO2 emissions and fertilization) causes warmer days to be cooler and cold days to be warmer.

"Their findings are that increased leaf area in warm regions (where the average mean annual air temperature is more than 16º C) is associated with cooling, mostly due to plant transpiration, evaporating water that subsequently condenses in the troposphere. By contrast, in cold-temperate and boreal regions (where average mean annual air temperature is less than 8º C) increased leaf area boosts warming, mostly due to making the surface reflect away less sunlight."

Pep Canadell, CSIRO Research Scientist and executive director of the Global Carbon Project, commends the Forzieri paper for shedding light on the importance of global greening. “The trend is among of the most compelling evidence of human influence at the planetary scale,” he says. “Yet we know little about its consequences for the function of natural ecosystems and ‘ecosystem services’ relevant to society.”

He notes that greening also affects biochemical processes such as the cycling of carbon and nitrogen, which need to be factored into the big picture. Nonetheless, the analysis shows how the planet is transforming “in ways that are multifaceted, complex and regionally specific”.

Bill Laurance, director of the Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Sciences at James Cook University, in Queensland, concurs, noting the importance of reflection and evaporative cooling. “It’s not just how much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are in the atmosphere,” he says. “It’s the combined effect that determines how much global warming we’ll see now and in the future.”

The climate is also a function of natural biological processes that we have so far been unable to model. Look to James Lovelock to explain the chemical basis of his Gaia Theory if you want to understand the planet.

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postPosted: Sat 16 Sep 2017, 17:29:30
by dohboi
good one mbs

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postPosted: Sat 16 Sep 2017, 19:19:33
by Plantagenet


Yup, that was kind of how I was picturing it, but without Peter Sellers.

I see my future as being part of one of the last breeding pairs of humans---just trying to survive in a simple hut made from old whale bones and driftwood on the shore of the ice free Arctic Ocean as the rest of the planet burns and dies in the cleansing fire of Greenhouse Warming. I picture humanity going almost extinct everywhere else on the planet. I picture an abandoned Cruise Ship crashed into the shore nearby, so I can raid it for bottles of wine on top of small rock reef covered in oysters and mussels that steam up really nicely. I picture a small hand-cranked radio sitting on a rock, mostly emitting static but occasionally picking desperate radio cries from help from the few remaining people in New York, Paris and LA as they succumb one by one to the unbearable heat.

Image
Honey......its time to breed again!

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postPosted: Sun 17 Sep 2017, 04:36:42
by Newfie
Future? Hell, thats my PRESENT!

(Only joking, but I imagine many cliff dwellers (city condo crowd) think our exsistance in Newfoundland is much like that!)

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postPosted: Sun 17 Sep 2017, 05:38:32
by baha
Wow. you folks make the frigid north sound almost inviting.

I am not fooled :)

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postPosted: Sun 17 Sep 2017, 12:34:16
by Newfie
Yes, well we will be in the Caribbean for the winter, if there is any left.

That said it's been a stunningly beautiful afternoon on the water. A bit chilly, 42°F. We are looking forward much to our next summer here. :-D