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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postPosted: Fri 09 Jun 2017, 05:58:24
by sparky
.
the shifting of the growing seasons has so far proved to be beneficial ,
an increased CO2 and increase in global precipitation has has helped a lot too !

food stocks are plentiful , food prices as low as ever
the real issues with the future are hydrocarbon derivatives and fuel price
the phosphates are also a long term certain headache

let's not kid ourselves , the number of people alive is exactly the same as the number who got food

Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postPosted: Fri 09 Jun 2017, 11:10:35
by dohboi
Thanks for the tip on farro, KJ. I'm definitely going to try to find some around here.

Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postPosted: Fri 09 Jun 2017, 14:55:20
by dohboi
Ummmm...we were talking about finding farro, not millet.

Maybe you need reading glasses?? 8)

Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postPosted: Fri 09 Jun 2017, 15:20:13
by KaiserJeep
Millet is grass seed, grown in tropical hot/dry desert conditions. Farro is a temperate-to-sub-tropical soft wheat variety. There is a world of difference in taste. Millet is suitable for livestock feed IMHO, if I read "millet" on a bread label, I skip that loaf.

Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postPosted: Fri 09 Jun 2017, 15:37:40
by KaiserJeep
pstarr wrote:
KaiserJeep wrote:Millet is grass seed, grown in tropical hot/dry desert conditions. Farro is a temperate-to-sub-tropical soft wheat variety. There is a world of difference in taste. Millet is suitable for livestock feed IMHO, if I read "millet" on a bread label, I skip that loaf.

"Pearl Millet is today the worlds sixth most important cereal grain. It is a decedent from a wild West African grass which grew in what is now the Sahara desert over 4000 years ago. It is currently planted on over 14 million acres in Africa upon which it is estimated 500 million people depend for their survival. Pearl Millet is the staple crop in the semi-arid region stretching over 7000 km from Sinagal to Somalia (almost 1/6 of the globe at the latitude), upon which African farmers produce 40% of the worlds millet."

Livestock huh?
The final step in processing millet is making flour. Traditional grinding stones used to grind grain to flour usually consist of a small stone which is held in the hand and a larger flat stone which is placed on the ground. Grain is crushed by the backward and forward movement of the hand-held stone on the lower stone. The work is very laborious, and it is hard work for anyone to grind more than 2 kg of flour in an hour.


Yes, those scruffy, emaciated African cattle eat millet, as do those emaciated African people. I don't begrudge them, if I lived in a tropical desert or semi-arid/near-desert, I might learn to like the taste of millet. But I don't live there, and I think it tastes like cardboard. Millet is indeed a hard grain suitable for flour or animal feed. Millet is suitable for hand cultivation, and after the great power down, may indeed play a bigger role than it does today. Today they make flat breads with it over unhealthful biomass fires - dried dung, sticks and grass.

Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postPosted: Fri 09 Jun 2017, 16:45:01
by dohboi
KJ wrote: "Millet ... after the great power down, may indeed play a bigger role than it does today."

Here we can agree.

Though properly prepared, I find the grain quite enjoyable, and it's got lot's more protein per gram than rice does...like five times more.

Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postPosted: Fri 16 Jun 2017, 11:55:44
by vox_mundi
Global Diet and Farming Methods 'Must Change for Environment's Sake'

Reducing meat consumption and using more efficient farming methods globally are essential to stave off irreversible damage to the environmental, a new study says.

Researchers examined more than 740 production systems for more than 90 different types of food, to understand the links between diets, agricultural production practices and environmental degradation. Their results are published today in the journal Environmental Research Letters.
"Although high agricultural efficiency consistently correlated with lower environmental impacts, the detailed picture we found was extremely mixed. While organic systems used less energy, they had higher land use, did not offer benefits in GHGs, and tended to have higher eutrophication and acidification potential per unit of food produced. Grass-fed beef, meanwhile, tended to require more land and emit more GHGs than grain-fed beef."

However, the authors note that these findings do not imply conventional practices are sustainable. Instead, they suggest that combining the benefits of different production systems, for example organic's reduced reliance on chemicals with the high yields of conventional systems, would result in a more sustainable agricultural system.

Dr Clark said: "Interestingly, we also found that a shift away from ruminant meats like beef - which have impacts three to 10 times greater than other animal-based foods - towards nutritionally similar foods like pork, poultry or fish would have significant benefits, both for the environment and for human health.

"Larger dietary shifts, such as global adoption of low-meat or vegetarian diets, would offer even larger benefits to environmental sustainability and human health."

Michael Clark et al, Comparative analysis of environmental impacts of agricultural production systems, agricultural input efficiency, and food choice, Environmental Research Letters (2017).


Impact of Climate Extremes on Wheat Quality

Greater temperature variability is expected in future years as a result of climate change. The effects on plants of so-called unseasonal warm and cold periods in the spring are particularly noticeable to gardeners and farmers.

Brief periods of high, or very cold, temperatures around the time of flowering in wheat can damage pollination and so reduce grain yield substantially.

Scientists at the University of Reading emphasise in new research, published today in Annals of Botany, that subsequent extreme temperature episodes can have more subtle, important effects not only on yield but also on the quality of wheat produced for different markets.

"Food security is dependent upon crop quality, not just yield. Similarly, farm incomes derive from crop value as well as yield. Climate change impact assessments should consider crop quality as well as yield. Both require particular attention to be paid to the timing of extreme temperature events in relation to crop development.

Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postPosted: Tue 15 Aug 2017, 18:51:56
by vox_mundi
Temperature Variability and Wheat Quality

Increased hot and cold spells resulting from climate change could affect bread-making quality or seed quality for growing subsequent wheat crops, depending upon when they occur.

Brief periods of high, or very cold, temperatures around the time of flowering in wheat can damage pollination and so reduce grain yield substantially.

Scientists at the University of Reading emphasise in new research, published today in Annals of Botany, that subsequent extreme temperature episodes can have more subtle, important effects not only on yield but also on the quality of wheat produced for different markets.

Food security is dependent upon crop quality, not just yield. Similarly, farm incomes derive from crop value as well as yield. Climate change impact assessments should consider crop quality as well as yield. Both require particular attention to be paid to the timing of extreme temperature events in relation to crop development.


Climate Change Will Cut Crop Yields

Climate change will have a negative effect on key crops such as wheat, rice, and maize, according to a major scientific report out Tuesday that reviewed 70 prior studies on global warming and agriculture.

All these methods "suggest that increasing temperatures are likely to have a negative effect on the global yields of wheat, rice and maize," said the report in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a peer-reviewed US journal.

"Each degree Celsius increase in global mean temperature is estimated to reduce average global yields of wheat by six percent," said the report.

Rice yields would be cut by 3.2 percent, and maize by 7.4 percent for each degree of Celsius warming (almost two degrees Fahrenheit), it added.

"Estimates of soybean yields did not change significantly."

Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates, Chuang Zhao, PNAS


Long-Term Study Suggests Sorghum Yields May Decline Due to Global Warming

A trio of researchers at Kansas State University has found that sorghum yields begin to drop once a certain average high temperature is reached and continue to drop as temperatures increase.

Using statistical analysis, they found that at 33°C (91°F) sorghum yields began to decline—each degree of warming showed a certain amount of decline, which the team plotted on a graph. The team was then able to offer an estimate of yield loss for a given amount of warming—if the average temperature during the growing season was 2°C warmer than the critical point, for example, crop yields would drop by 17 percent.

Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postPosted: Wed 16 Aug 2017, 10:21:41
by dohboi
Interesting. I had thought that rice was more sensitive to heat increases than that.

Of course some of those growing areas could shift, but eventually you run out of room to move...

I believe that earlier estimates were that total crop production falls about 10% for ever degree C of increase. Even that seemed a bit conservative to me.

Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postPosted: Wed 16 Aug 2017, 14:57:34
by Subjectivist
dohboi wrote:Interesting. I had thought that rice was more sensitive to heat increases than that.

Of course some of those growing areas could shift, but eventually you run out of room to move...

I believe that earlier estimates were that total crop production falls about 10% for ever degree C of increase. Even that seemed a bit conservative to me.


Rice comes in multiple varieties but it seems self evident that the types grown in flooded paddies will be much more temperature insensative because the water is a huge heat sink on hot days and heat source on cold nights in early fall.

Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postPosted: Wed 20 Sep 2017, 15:12:10
by vox_mundi
Atrazine, is a commonly used herbicide on corn crops across the Midwest.

Researchers See Popular Herbicide Affecting Health Across Generations

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Syngenta uses some 70 million pounds on corn, sorghum, sugar and other crops each year

First, the good news. Washington State University researchers have found that a rat exposed to a popular herbicide while in the womb developed no diseases and showed no apparent health effects aside from lower weight.
Now, the weird news. The grand-offspring of that rat did have more disease, as did a great-grand offspring third generation.

"The third generation had multiple diseases and much more frequently than the third generation of unexposed rats," said Michael Skinner, a Washington State University professor of biological sciences. At work, says Skinner, are epigenetic inheritance changes that turn genes on and off, often because of environmental influences.

Atrazine, a common herbicide used on corn crops across the Midwest. Manufactured by Syngenta, the hormone-disrupting compound has been banned in Europe, where it was found contaminating water, while the Environmental Protection Agency permits its use in the U.S. It has been found in water systems serving 30 million Americans in 28 states, according to an Environmental Working Group survey.

After Skinner and his colleagues exposed pregnant female rats to the herbicide, their first generation of offspring showed no ill effects but weighed less than rats in a control group. Rats bred from them had increased testis disease and altered sperm production, mammary tumors in both males and females, early-onset puberty in the males and lower-weight females. Their offspring—the great-grand offspring of the exposed rats—also had more testis disease, plus early onset puberty in females, hyperactivity and leaner male and female physiques.

When Skinner and his colleagues looked at sperm of the offspring, they found epimutations, or alterations in the methyl groups that stick to DNA and affect its activation.

"Observations indicate that although atrazine does not promote disease in the directly exposed F1 [first] generation, it does have the capacity to promote the epigenetic transgenerational inheritance of disease in subsequent generations," the researchers write.


New Findings of Environmental Concerns about Syngenta's Crop Chemical Removed from EPA Site

The Environmental Protection Agency released a very troubling preliminary risk assessment that the routine use of the chemical atrazine is likely harming animals and our ecosystems.

Despite the seriousness of the concerns about the adverse effects of atrazine--or perhaps because of them--the memo, which was signed on April 12 and published at the end of last month, was quietly removed from the EPA's website. The Center for Biological Diversity preserved a copy and made it available here.

According to Open Secrets, Syngenta spends well over a million dollars a year on reported lobbying of Congress and federal agencies to limit the regulation of the chemicals it markets to American businesses and consumers, in addition to an untold sum on public relations in the U.S.

https://toxicevolution.wordpress.com/20 ... dt-moment/

... in the final stages of review, EPA director Scott Pruitt greenlighted the chemical instead, arguing there was insufficient evidence to ban it. Now farmers can continue to apply it to crops like corn, strawberries, almonds, and tomatoes.

Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postPosted: Thu 21 Sep 2017, 01:45:57
by Shaved Monkey
Russia is excited by global warming their wheat harvest is up


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http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/t ... ns/ri20976

Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postPosted: Fri 22 Sep 2017, 17:30:35
by dissident
Shaved Monkey wrote:Russia is excited by global warming their wheat harvest is up


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http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/t ... ns/ri20976


It's only a bunch of pundits and journalists who are excited by global warming and not "Russia". A lot of the export gain is due to the fall in the ruble exchange rate and the revival of a vast amount of fallow land. To attribute the export growth to global warming is simply dubious. I will wait for a scientific analysis and not internet amateur hour speculation.

Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postPosted: Mon 25 Sep 2017, 15:00:15
by vox_mundi
Study Identifies Likely Scenarios for Global Spread of Devastating Crop Disease

A team of scientists of the University of Cambridge, the UK Met Office and CIMMYT (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre) have adapted modelling systems previously used to forecast, ash dispersal from erupting volcanoes and radiation from nuclear accidents (NAME), to predict when and how Ug99 (Wheat Stem Rust) and other such strains are most likely to spread.

The research, published today in the journal Nature Plants, quantifies for the first time the circumstances—routes, timings and outbreak sizes—under which dangerous strains of stem rust pose a threat from long-distance dispersal out of East Africa to the large wheat-producing areas in India and Pakistan.

The results highlight the role of Yemen as a potential 'stepping stone' for the transmission of the disease between continents. The key scenario for disease spread is from Yemen directly to Pakistan or India. In case of a large outbreak in Eastern Yemen results indicate a 30% chance for transmission to occur.
"From our work, we now believe that if we start to see Ug99 or other new wheat rust strains take hold in Yemen in early spring then action must be taken immediately to mitigate the risk of further spread."

Another important scenario for wheat rust spread is from Yemen through Middle Eastern countries, in particular Iran, to Central and South Asia. If Iran were to suffer a moderate outbreak of Ug99—more than 1000 hectares—then spores would likely spread to Afghanistan, and from there potentially further to the northern plains of Pakistan and India. However, transmission along this route is restricted to a relatively short time-window in March and April, before wheat is typically harvested in South Asia.

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M. Meyer et al, Quantifying airborne dispersal routes of pathogens over continents to safeguard global wheat supply, Nature Plants (2017).

Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postPosted: Thu 08 Feb 2018, 13:40:51
by vox_mundi
Scientists Fear Resurgence of Devastating Wheat Disease in Britain & Europe

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Work between groups has already started following the discovery of a single wheat plant infected with stem rust - the first confirmed case of the plant disease in the UK in over 60 years. Stem rust of wheat and barley has throughout history been associated with crop failure and famine, and has recently re-emerged in western Europe.

Their results showed that the UK strain belongs to the Digalu race of the fungus, which was responsible for a devastating outbreak of stem rust in Ethiopia in 2013, and smaller outbreaks in Sweden, Denmark, and Germany in the same year.
Further investigations carried out by Dr Jane Thomas at NIAB in Cambridge, UK, found that over 80% of UK wheat varieties tested are susceptible to the UK strain of this pathogen. This indicates that if the strain became established in the UK, a large proportion of UK wheat could be at risk.

The research team warns that UK and European wheat and barley crops could be under threat from a perfect storm of conditions favourable to stem rust resurgence.
Dr Daniel Bebber at Exeter University, UK, showed that changes in climatic conditions over the past 25 years suggest increasingly conducive conditions for fungal pathogen growth and infection. With global temperatures set to rise by another 1 or 2 degrees over the next century, stem rust could extend its geographic range. Therefore, there is the potential for stem rust to become an ever-increasing threat across Europe.

In addition to the lack of resistance in European wheat varieties, in recent years the alternate host of the pathogen, Barberry (Berberis vulgaris), has also been increasing in popularity. This hedgerow shrub plays a key role in the life cycle of several rust pathogens including wheat stem rust.
... “Even if we have a resistant wheat line today that we just developed, it would take 10 years to get them to market,” ... “There’s very little resistance within our wheat varieties and if we did have an outbreak today, it could be quite devastating.”

Stem rust can devastate wheat, the source of food and livelihoods for more than 1 billion people in developing countries, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

It could wipe out 70 percent or more of the crop, turning a healthy looking crop, only weeks away from harvest, into a tangle of black stems and shriveled grains, the agency said.

The risks posed by wheat rusts are growing, with modern versions of the fungus becoming ever more virulent, evolving to adapt to the earth’s higher temperatures, the FAO said.

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-whea ... SKBN1FS1C5

Clare M. Lewis et al, Potential for re-emergence of wheat stem rust in the United Kingdom, Communications Biology (2018)