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IEA: Treat energy efficiency as ‘world’s first fuel’

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IEA: Treat energy efficiency as ‘world’s first fuel’

Unread postby Graeme » Thu 17 Oct 2013, 18:27:04

IEA: Treat energy efficiency as ‘world’s first fuel’

Global energy saving investments - and their effects on energy demand - are now equal to the net contribution of other fuel sources, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on 16 October, as it launched its inaugural Energy Efficiency Market Report.
The IEA valued worldwide energy efficiency investments in 2011 at $300 billion (€221bn), a level on a par with global funding of renewable energy and fossil fuel power sources.

“Energy efficiency has been called a 'hidden fuel', yet it is hiding in plain sight,” said the IEA’s executive director Maria van der Hoeven, at a presentation for the paper in Korea.

“Indeed, the degree of global investment in energy efficiency and the resulting energy savings are so massive that they beg the following question: Is energy efficiency not just a hidden fuel but rather the world's first fuel?” she asked.

Between 2005 and 2010, 11 of the IEA member states made energy savings equal to $420 billion (€310bn), higher than from any other single fuel source. Without this, the countries would now be consuming about two-thirds more energy than at present.

Since 1974, energy savings in the 11 countries avoided the burning of 1.5 billion tones of oil equivalent, according to the IEA's Energy Efficiency Market Report 2013.

It finds that an absence of dynamic pricing in energy markets together with subsidies, high transaction costs, information failures and a lack of institutional capacity can sometimes impede efficiency improvements.


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Re: IEA: Treat energy efficiency as ‘world’s first fuel’

Unread postby sparky » Fri 18 Oct 2013, 01:37:18

.
" an absence of dynamic pricing in energy markets" ....... :shock:

The dynamic pricing is the cause of the "energy saving"
no doubt wastage has decrease , but so has the spending
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Re: IEA: Treat energy efficiency as ‘world’s first fuel’

Unread postby Graeme » Sat 18 Oct 2014, 22:18:13

World's "First Fuel" - Energy Efficiency - Coming Out of Hiding

The International Energy Agency (IEA) just released its second annual Energy Efficiency Market Report 2014 confirming energy efficiency’s place as the world’s “first fuel” and estimating the value of the energy efficiency market at between $310 and $360 billion and growing. A related report released by IEA in September, Capturing The Multiple Benefits of Energy Efficiency, focused on its benefits beyond just reducing energy use and emissions, including overall sustainability, economic and social development, and increasing prosperity.

Both reports provide clear evidence of the enormous value of using energy smarter.

The Energy Efficiency Market Is Strong, Valuable and Growing

The new EE Market Report confirms findings from last year’s report (that I wrote about here) that the global savings from energy efficiency are greater than the output from any other single fuel source – including coal, oil, nuclear, and gas, making it the world’s first fuel. We’ve also written about how it is America’s Greatest Resource.

The EE Market Report makes a number of other impressive findings with regard to energy efficiency, including:

Without improvements in the efficiency of cars, homes, heating, appliances and industry, total energy use in the 11 IEA member countries* would have been 60% more in 2012 – greater than the total energy consumption of the European Union or Asia (excluding China). Energy efficiency was the most important factor reducing energy demand.

While energy prices have risen between 11% and 52% between 2001 and 2011, energy efficiency and increasing incomes have moderated the impact on households.

Investment in efficiency was larger than supply-side investment in renewable electricity or in coal, oil, and gas electricity generation and around half the size of upstream oil and gas investment.

This is just small sample of the highlights. If you are interested in learning more, including country-specific findings, take a look at the report – or at least the summary.


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Re: IEA: Treat energy efficiency as ‘world’s first fuel’

Unread postby careinke » Mon 20 Oct 2014, 04:22:24

pstarr wrote:If "energy-efficiency" is the original fuel then all we have to do is become hyper-efficient with biofuels, supercapacitors, flywheels, algal fuel-cells, thorium, and stuff, and then we wouldn't need gasoline at all. Wheeeeee!


Pstarr, you need to share whatever you are smoking today.

That said, if you replace your list with on site: water management, waste disposal, proper earthworks, passive solar, food production, energy production, and shelter built from local materials you may be onto something.
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Re: IEA: Treat energy efficiency as ‘world’s first fuel’

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 21 Oct 2014, 00:51:45

In capitalist systems, efficiency does not necessarily lead to conservation but to increased production and consumption in exchange for more profits and better returns on investment.
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Re: IEA: Treat energy efficiency as ‘world’s first fuel’

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 23:34:21

Jevons' Paradox. :roll:
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Re: IEA: Treat energy efficiency as ‘world’s first fuel’

Unread postby Graeme » Fri 24 Oct 2014, 15:42:30

Hi Monte, You've been away a long time! Did the fires affect you in Arizona? Have you been lurking here?

Anyway, back to topic. I was wondering whether JP has been debunked?

Of course, falling energy prices do impact peoples’ consumption patterns. When energy prices fall, we tend to buy more of it because it is more affordable. This is the substitution effect. Because energy has become cheaper relative to other goods, we buy more energy and less of some other things, substituting one for the other.
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Re: IEA: Treat energy efficiency as ‘world’s first fuel’

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 24 Oct 2014, 19:07:16

Graeme wrote:Hi Monte, You've been away a long time! Did the fires affect you in Arizona? Have you been lurking here?


Moved to Missouri last April, so wasn't in Sedona for the fires. Lurking? Never. I have more time now that my house is finished to post.

Anyway, back to topic. I was wondering whether JP has been debunked?


It's rather hard to debunk 150 years of empirical evidence to the contrary.

So, no.

As to your links argument.

"The average size of new homes increased from 2,095 to 2,438 square feet, over 16%. More square feet means more area to cool and more energy needed to cool it.
In 1993, of homes that had A.C., 38% only had room units while 62% had central air. By 2005, 75% of air conditioned homes had central units. Bigger units covering more rooms means more cool air and, you guessed it, more energy."


As efficiency increased, homes got larger, installed more lighting, extra fridge, etc. Hoisted by his own petard. :)
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Re: IEA: Treat energy efficiency as ‘world’s first fuel’

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 24 Oct 2014, 22:53:23

Also, the article refers to the U.S., where energy and material resource consumption are currently high. The rest of the world, where even many basic needs have not been met, has to be considered.
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Re: IEA: Treat energy efficiency as ‘world’s first fuel’

Unread postby Quinny » Sat 25 Oct 2014, 03:33:41

I know it's just anecdotal, but my experience is that even though my energy efficiency has increased significantly, I am using much less energy and consciously looking for even more ways to do so. As JP was conceived in 'normal' times, could it be that post peak the 'paradox' changes?
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Re: IEA: Treat energy efficiency as ‘world’s first fuel’

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 25 Oct 2014, 13:40:40

Quinny wrote:I know it's just anecdotal, but my experience is that even though my energy efficiency has increased significantly, I am using much less energy and consciously looking for even more ways to do so. As JP was conceived in 'normal' times, could it be that post peak the 'paradox' changes?


This is one of the reasons Jevons' Paradox is hard for people to grasp. At the micro-level, they see the gains, but at the macro-level (the big picture) it ends up with more consumption even when both are factored.

When people are no longer able to borrow money to increase GDP growth, then efficiency gains may hold some promise.
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Re: IEA: Treat energy efficiency as ‘world’s first fuel’

Unread postby Quinny » Sat 25 Oct 2014, 14:59:14

I've never really looked into the theory behind JP, but if it's linked to economic growth, then I can see it being nullified pretty soon!
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Re: IEA: Treat energy efficiency as ‘world’s first fuel’

Unread postby Graeme » Sat 25 Oct 2014, 17:35:11

Monte, I have to say at the outset that it is really great to have you back. Your influence on this site has been outstanding especially toward other members. However, I'm not completely satisfied with your response regarding efficiency, and I'm not sure that I can offer a complete explanation.

From what I've read, the effect of JP is quite small (typically <10% and no more than 30%). Note this from the OP:

Between 2005 and 2010, 11 of the IEA member states made energy savings equal to $420 billion (€310bn), higher than from any other single fuel source. Without this, the countries would now be consuming about two-thirds more energy than at present.


In the follow-up "energycollective" article, the authors refer to the rebound effect:

A NYT opinion piece “The Problem with Energy Efficiency” wrongly argued that energy efficiency advances only encourage more global energy consumption and cannot make much difference in curbing climate change. This is puzzling because numerous studies, including the two studies the authors themselves cite (and mischaracterize) – the IEA Multiple Benefits Study discussed above and a 2014 IPCC Working Group Report - and one they didn’t by NRDC, refute their claim that energy efficiency causes large “rebounds,” or increases in consumption.

If such a significant “rebound” existed, U.S. energy use growth rates would exceed those of our economy, but the opposite is true over more than three decades – thanks in large part to efficiency. In fact, the IEA and IPCC reports considered the “rebound” possibility and still overwhelmingly endorsed efficiency’s ability to cut energy use and pollution without stifling the standard of living for developing areas.


Furthermore, there are situations where JP doesn't apply; renewable energy (you can't over-exploit the sun), and zero energy buildings.

I looked at the wiki article:

The Jevons paradox is sometimes used to argue that energy conservation efforts are futile, for example, that more efficient use of oil will lead to increased demand, and will not slow the arrival or the effects of peak oil. This argument is usually presented as a reason not to impose environmental policies, or to increase fuel efficiency (e.g. if cars are more efficient, it will simply lead to more driving).[7][8] Several points have been raised against this argument. First, in the context of a mature market such as for oil in developed countries, the direct rebound effect is usually small, and so increased fuel efficiency usually reduces resource use, other conditions remaining constant.[6][9][10] Second, even if increased efficiency does not reduce the total amount of fuel used, there remain other benefits associated with improved efficiency. For example, increased fuel efficiency may mitigate the price increases, shortages and disruptions in the global economy associated with peak oil.[11] Third, environmental economists have pointed out that fuel use will unambiguously decrease if increased efficiency is coupled with an intervention (e.g. a green tax) that keeps the cost of fuel use the same or higher.[3]

The Jevons paradox indicates that increased efficiency by itself is unlikely to reduce fuel use, and that sustainable energy policy must rely on other types of government interventions.[12] As the Jevons paradox applies only to technological improvements that increase fuel efficiency, the imposition of conservation standards that simultaneously increase costs does not cause an increase in fuel use. To ensure that efficiency-enhancing technological improvements reduce fuel use, efficiency gains must be paired with government intervention that reduces demand (e.g., green taxes, a cap and trade programme, or higher fuel taxes)


Finally, in the debunked article I referred to, your quote is taken out of context. If you read further down, it states this:

Finally, even though air conditioners were 28% more efficient in 2005 than in 1993, air conditioners last between 15 and 25 years. Using the mid-range lifespan of 20 years, and assuming that efficiency increased gradually from 1993 to 2005, and accounting for the introduction of new AC units associated with new home construction (about 1.5% of the housing stock in any given year), I calculated the efficiency of the average central air unit in service in 2005 to be about 11.5% more efficient than the average unit in 2009.

Accounting only for the increased income over the timeframe and fixing Owen’s mistake of assuming that every air conditioner in service is new, a few rough calculations point to an increase in energy use for air conditioning of about 30% from 1993 to 2005, despite the gains in efficiency. Taking into account the larger size of new homes and the shift from room to central air units could easily account for the rest.

All of the increase in energy consumption for air conditioning is easily explained by factors completely unrelated to increases in energy efficiency. All of these things would have happened anyway. Without the increases in efficiency, energy consumption would have been much higher.


I said at the first paragraph that I cannot offer a complete explanation. I know that there is other information about energy efficiency that I have missed but I do accept the conclusion of the IEA that energy efficiency is the "world's first fuel".
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Re: IEA: Treat energy efficiency as ‘world’s first fuel’

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 25 Oct 2014, 22:51:20

Graeme wrote:Monte, I have to say at the outset that it is really great to have you back. Your influence on this site has been outstanding especially toward other members. However, I'm not completely satisfied with your response regarding efficiency, and I'm not sure that I can offer a complete explanation.


150 years of empirical evidence is hard to refute. Google Khazzoom–Brookes postulate. It is a more modern analysis of Jevons Paradox.

If such a significant “rebound” existed, U.S. energy use growth rates would exceed those of our economy, but the opposite is true over more than three decades – thanks in large part to efficiency.


Much of US reduced energy consumption is due to outsourcing of our industrial base to China and elsewhere.

The work done by Khazzoom and Brookes began after the OPEC oil crises of 1973 and 1979, when demand for more fuel-efficient automobiles began to rise. Although greater fuel efficiency was achieved for each automobile on average, overall consumption has continued to increase. "The OPEC oil shocks spawned huge improvements in energy efficiency, particularly insofar as oil was concerned. But three decades later, we find that the net effect of all of those efficiency initiatives has been to increase the world’s appetite for crude. While oil per unit of GDP has fallen impressively in large energy-consuming economies like the United States, total oil consumption, and indeed, total energy consumption, continue to grow by leaps and bounds. The increase in energy usage has dwarfed the gains in economic efficiency.
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Re: IEA: Treat energy efficiency as ‘world’s first fuel’

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 25 Oct 2014, 22:58:50

Graeme wrote:Finally, in the debunked article I referred to, your quote is taken out of context.


Then you missed the point I was making. Increases in efficiency has led to larger homes, more lighting, more refrigerators, larger cars, more miles driven, etc.

I could have used that same paragraph to show the effects of efficiency on new consumption.

I stand by my position of 10 years; conservation and efficiency gains will not help, except at the individual level.

Remember the goal? Reduce overall energy use. The only thing that has ever reduced overall energy consumption, especially here in the US, is recessions and depressions.
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Re: IEA: Treat energy efficiency as ‘world’s first fuel’

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 25 Oct 2014, 23:45:23

The only way to prove that the effect of JP is small is to show that energy and material resource consumption won't increase worldwide. That, together with the belief that producers will not maximize sales, cannot be shown.
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Re: IEA: Treat energy efficiency as ‘world’s first fuel’

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 26 Oct 2014, 00:17:44

Do a search for a Jevon's Paradox thread on the site. Aaron and I posted extensively on it years ago.
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Re: IEA: Treat energy efficiency as ‘world’s first fuel’

Unread postby MD » Sun 26 Oct 2014, 01:51:28

Energy efficiency will have its day.
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Just think it through.
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