Peak Oil News and Message Boards

SteinarN wrote:We have had some late joiners before, so I'm sure Peak Oiler will let you in if you put up a good guess and ask him politely

But I warn you, your numbers in the chart will be in gray colour

Danke.

I am a laid back judge, but I would like to read what other players think. We could take a vote from the players where the majority would decide. One purpose of the deadline is to just help me get the scorecard correct and posted in a timely manner. The main reason for the deadline is for fairness between all the players after all...

I could send you a copy of the Excel workbook, and you could enter your numbers. Or I could, as SteinarN suggested, enter your guesses in gray and italic font.

What do you think, guys?

PeakOiler wrote:What do you think, guys?

I don't care either way. It's a friendly contest and we're guessing. So I think that as long as there is a reasonably prompt deadline (say for example, in Jan.) that it's fine -- as long as people playing can change their guesses up to the "hard deadline".

Now, OTOH, I think it would be manifestly unfair and against the spirit of the thing if we let any latecomers enter by, say Thanksgiving, so I think we DO need to have some kind of a hard deadline in the relatively short term.

Since I'm a terrible guesser, it's not like I ever do well in these things anyway, so take my opinion with a grain of salt.

And one other thing, if some major event had happened causing the price of oil to collapse or skyrocket between the ordinary deadline and any late guess it would be unfair. But as it is now not much, if anything, regarding the oil price have happened since the deadline.

As we're still at the start of the year, it seems reasonable to allow late entries, just have them marked as such.
Another week or so will be too late IMHO.

I would say you can join for a week after the regular deadline but your numbers and name are distinguished from the rest somehow. Its a friendly game with no stakes but bragging rights, but I don't think the grace period should be a whole month, it changes the feel of the game.

The deadline has passed.

Okay, a one time deal,and never again.
SAL

We should have a hard deadline of the 15th of January. IMHO...

Thanks for all the comments, suggestions, and opinions. I will include KilonBerlin in the game and you will see the updated scorecard next week. His name will appear in gray font and italicized indicating the late entry.

This will be the only late entry allowed this year.

[quote="PeakOiler"]Thanks for all the comments, suggestions, and opinions. I will include KilonBerlin in the game and you will see the updated scorecard next week. His name will appear in gray font and italicized indicating the late entry.

This will be the only late entry allowed this year.[/quote]
That's fair enough.
The games afoot!!

Below is the revised and updated scorecard.



I think politics will have more effect on the price this year than from other factors.

Give the guy a break, and he immediately knocks me down a notch. We've got a long way to go until the end of the year.
SAL

It's going to be an interesting year! Do you think Trump's opening up the Dakota Access and Keystone pipelines will make a difference? I'll bet it drives down the price of WTI because now all that nasty tar sands crap will get blended in.

Just a thought...

Revi wrote:It's going to be an interesting year! Do you think Trump's opening up the Dakota Access and Keystone pipelines will make a difference? I'll bet it drives down the price of WTI because now all that nasty tar sands crap will get blended in.

Just a thought...

I doubt that, the southern KXL pipeline that opened in 2012-13 was built to export that Canadian oil to third parties. If you bring in more Canadian with the northern section it will just increase exports through the ports in the GOM.

How much more tilbit will move through those pipelines then is already being shipped by rail and truck? Not much I'm thinking as the pipelines will cut shipping costs and improve safety but by themselves won't produce anymore oil at the wellhead or processing plant. Higher prices on the other hand in the future will increase production activity and that might change the product mix.

I sort of bet on low volatility, which explains my very narrow range between high and low. That is based on my belief that OPEC will be able to stick to their cuts. They don't have a good history of doing so, so we shall see.

PeakOiler wrote:Below is the revised and updated scorecard.



I think politics will have more effect on the price this year than from other factors.

Suggestion, to make the grid more readable could you place all the figures in the same format? $DD.CC, two dollar and two cent columns? This year nobody guessed over $99.99 lol or it would be $DDD.CC . My low guess is showing as 52.5 instead of 52.50 and it bugs my OCD part of the brain.

Prices have been pretty steady. Not much change in the standings:

Hey I slipped ahead of ObserverBrb based on our average guess. A little more saber rattling between the Donald and Iran and I'll be moving right up.
On second thought I'm fine just where we are.

An update coming?

SAL