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How the Cost of Transportation will be disrupted in the comi

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How the Cost of Transportation will be disrupted in the comi

Unread postby christhewriter » Tue 05 Apr 2016, 21:25:27

There are many facts about transportation that have been changing in the last years. There are new vehicle models with exciting changes and promising improvements in design, sustainable reports and also money savings since you buy it from its future costs.

We actually don’t stop to analyze what’s the current cost of driving a vehicle or the reason why transportation services provide those rates and prices for each ride. Car owners need to consider the whole cost of it, it is not just about gasoline, you also need to have a car insurance, take it to service and maintenance once every three or more months, buy some car accessories, etc. The current costs we’re going to read below make us think about which transport system we should use according to our earnings and the adequate budget we have.

Current cost of driving a vehicle:
• 0.20 Cents per mile for depreciation for the vehicle (assuming an average Toyota depreciates 2,500 bucks a year – been driven 12,000 miles).
• 0.16 Cents per mile for gasoline.
• 0.05 Dollars per mile on average for insurance
• 0.05 wear and tear (tires, oil change, etc.)

Total: 0.46 dollars per mile.

Let’s take this to the private transportation services we know like Uber, ShuttleWizard, Lyft, etc. which are actually known because of their low rates and good service. Depending on your utilization ratio, on average, your local transportation company spends around 0.75-1.50 dollar per mile on employee costs. Plus, passengers have to pay tips to the driver.

You also need to consider that a luxury vehicle depreciates on average 0.50 cents a mile, plus more expensive gas, more expensive insurance and premium parts on the wear and tear – can bring the cost up to 2.00 a mile. Also, luxury car drivers normally demand a higher tip and get paid more on an hourly basis.

Self-driving cars will completely remove driver cost out of the equation. For a standard vehicle, the cost could be slashed to 0.46 dollars per mile vs 1.59 dollars per mile. That’s a 71% decrease in cost.

For electric vehicles, the cost per mile of the gas-equivalent can be reduced by 3.7 cents per mile versus 16.0 cents per mile. That’s a 77% decrease in fuel cost. All-in-all, when you combine self-driving cars with electric vehicles, you can bring down the cost from 0.96 per mile to 0.38 dollars per mile.

What does all that mean? Here’s a good example: currently going from downtown Los Angeles to LAX airport costs:

Self-Driving + Electric Vehicle: $6.73
Self-Driving Car (gas powered): $8.14
UberX: $24-$32
LA Taxi: $72.77

Regardless of how much you spend on transportation each day, you know there are some ways you can minimize your costs.
You can use public transportation options (which are actually inexpensive alternatives) when going to work or when you are going to a crowded place with traffic and parking problems. There are other driving tips for saving gas like climbing slowly when or leaving the car in gear instead of turning it off.
You can also try to avoid eight-cylinder cars and buy a four-cylinder instead and drive through car pools when you can.
And finally, you know you can walk, use a bicycle or a motorcycle when you need to go somewhere nearby. :idea: :)
Last edited by Tanada on Tue 05 Apr 2016, 23:42:36, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Removed embedded links
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Re: How the Cost of Transportation will be disrupted in the

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Wed 06 Apr 2016, 01:20:14

One thing not mentioned - if a company is providing the self driving vehicle, they will expect to make a profit on their capital expense. Their fee structure would probably be only 10 - 25 percent lower than their competitors (taxi - limo), to begin with. It would probably change after they received more low cost competition.
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Re: How the Cost of Transportation will be disrupted in the

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 06 Apr 2016, 05:07:04

As a truckie in Australia I regularly am told by Tesla fans I'm about to be redundant, but nobody inside JITF is talking about it. Freight insiders know there's a lot more than just driving going on. Retrofitting the fleet plus the despatch & exchange facilities etc is a multi trillion dollar exercise. That is after the robots learn how to drive in all conditions.
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Re: How the Cost of Transportation will be disrupted in the

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 06 Apr 2016, 10:03:41

SeaGypsy wrote:As a truckie in Australia I regularly am told by Tesla fans I'm about to be redundant, but nobody inside JITF is talking about it. Freight insiders know there's a lot more than just driving going on. Retrofitting the fleet plus the despatch & exchange facilities etc is a multi trillion dollar exercise. That is after the robots learn how to drive in all conditions.


Just pause for a moment and think how much easier it would be to fully automate a freight train than a freight truck. Trains run on tracks, no need for steering. Trains travel very long distances on well known routes without needing frequent stops, at least for unit trains. Nobody has seriously considered fully automating unit trains hauling a mile of oil tanks/coal hoppers/shipping containers on any of those well known 1600 km long routes with a simple beginning and end point. Why not?
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Re: How the Cost of Transportation will be disrupted in the

Unread postby eugene » Wed 06 Apr 2016, 11:40:08

With the absolute reliability of computers, I cannot wait until I'm facing a self driver coming down the road at me.
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Re: How the Cost of Transportation will be disrupted in the

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 06 Apr 2016, 12:05:10

christhewriter wrote:Current cost of driving a vehicle:
• 0.20 Cents per mile for depreciation for the vehicle (assuming an average Toyota depreciates 2,500 bucks a year – been driven 12,000 miles).
• 0.16 Cents per mile for gasoline.
• 0.05 Dollars per mile on average for insurance
• 0.05 wear and tear (tires, oil change, etc.)

Total: 0.46 dollars per mile.


Nice effort. Using common sense (since you have no citations at all that I see), I have to dispute your figures.

First, gasoline. Gasoline now costs roughly $2.00, given how low oil prices are. (They will vary by location, but this is a reasonable back-of-the-envelope figure.

For the fleet mileage of vehicles people drive, 26 mpg looks like a good figure considering the number was 25.5 mpg a year ago, and that the trendline is increasing year after year, per this article.

http://www.autonews.com/article/2015060 ... 5.5-in-may

So $2.00 per gallon divided by 26 miles per gallon gives under eight cents. So your 16 cents isn't just a rounding error, it's about double what it should be.


In my opinion, your cost of maintenance is way overstated compared to insurance. Your insurance cost of 5 cents a mile looks reasonable at 12,000 miles a year. Given that tires last 50,000ish miles if taken care of (rotated, etc), and that synthetic oil doesn't need to be changed often, and how reliable cars have become, I believe a figure half that big is far more realistic for an average figure.
Self-driving cars will completely remove driver cost out of the equation. For a standard vehicle, the cost could be slashed to 0.46 dollars per mile vs 1.59 dollars per mile. That’s a 71% decrease in cost.

Again, you have no citations, but what the he** are you talking about?

It costs me the same for "my time" if I drive my car from point A to B, whether by self driving car, or manual car. (My out of pocket cost is exactly zero for my own drive time). If you want to pretend everyone will be "working" instead of looking out the window or relaxing or whatever while the car is moving -- feel free to assume. However some people, like me, get car sick if they read instead of look out the window, so that's not a valid assumption. Also, IMO, if you assume everyone in a self driving car will be "working" 100% of the time, that's completely unrealistic. So the 71% decrease in "cost" you're talking about seems like complete nonsense to me.

....

It makes sense to think about these things. If your figures come from a credible article, book, etc. please share the name(s) or link(s) so we can understand the logic behind the figures.

Otherwise, it's fine to share your opinion, but if you don't explain the basic methodology/logic behind your figures, they're just your opinion. Given your gasoline figure -- sorry, but I don't trust your figures without explanation.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: How the Cost of Transportation will be disrupted in the

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 06 Apr 2016, 14:51:27

Do none of you people ever use mass transit?

Why not build a tram or run trains from LA to the airport? This is commonplace all over Europe and its cheaper for travelers then any of the options you are pushing. Plus its easy to take luggage on a train and you don't have to pay for expensive parking at the airport.

Both Seattle and Portland have already built airport trams here in the US----LA should do this too.

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The new Seattle airport tram
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Re: How the Cost of Transportation will be disrupted in the

Unread postby ennui2 » Wed 06 Apr 2016, 14:55:31

What does all that mean?


It means suburbia isn't dead yet, much to PStarr's chagrin.
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Re: How the Cost of Transportation will be disrupted in the

Unread postby batistasatoshi » Wed 06 Apr 2016, 15:11:59

So, based on these "facts" (Sorry, but I agree with Outcast_Searcher, you have to share the source or sources where you claim this), how much will the cost be for both public and private transportation then, like shuttles, taxis, buses, limousines, etc.?
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Re: How the Cost of Transportation will be disrupted in the

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 06 Apr 2016, 16:05:37

Plantagenet wrote:Do none of you people ever use mass transit?

Why not build a tram or run trains from LA to the airport? This is commonplace all over Europe and its cheaper for travelers then any of the options you are pushing. Plus its easy to take luggage on a train and you don't have to pay for expensive parking at the airport.

Both Seattle and Portland have already built airport trams here in the US----LA should do this too.

Image
The new Seattle airport tram

Plent, in my experience, the practical value of mass transit is completely dependent upon the population base of where it is implemented. In DC, Philly, or Toronto, mass transit is WONDERFUL, IMO. In DC, I wouldn't even THINK of renting a car, between the ability to get good mass transit or a cab (when lugging luggage to/from the airport). If I lived there (which I seriously pondered in the late 80's, due to the offer of a promotion with a location transfer), I wouldn't even dream of owning a car given the parking charges, coupled with the traffic and the available mass transit.

OTOH, in my small city of Lexington,KY, all the mass transit option I have is the bus system. It is TERRIBLE, often only showing up once an hour, and sometimes missing peripheral stops (I would guess to make up time), -- so sitting two hours in the snow in frigid temperatures hoping the bus shows up will NOT dissuade ANYONE who can afford it from using their car.

And then we have the small towns, which a huge proportion of rural Kentuckians live. In the vast majority of those, there is zero mass transit, nor any realistic plans for any. For those folks, you may as well chide them for not believing in angels as to chide them for not using mass transit.

...

So yeah, for those who live in large cities and have multiple forms of reliable mass transit, I hear you. For everyone else, not at all.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: How the Cost of Transportation will be disrupted in the

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 06 Apr 2016, 16:53:00

Tanada wrote:
SeaGypsy wrote:As a truckie in Australia I regularly am told by Tesla fans I'm about to be redundant, but nobody inside JITF is talking about it. Freight insiders know there's a lot more than just driving going on. Retrofitting the fleet plus the despatch & exchange facilities etc is a multi trillion dollar exercise. That is after the robots learn how to drive in all conditions.


Just pause for a moment and think how much easier it would be to fully automate a freight train than a freight truck. Trains run on tracks, no need for steering. Trains travel very long distances on well known routes without needing frequent stops, at least for unit trains. Nobody has seriously considered fully automating unit trains hauling a mile of oil tanks/coal hoppers/shipping containers on any of those well known 1600 km long routes with a simple beginning and end point. Why not?

We already have driverless trains hauling ore in Pilbara Western Australia & in 2019 Sydney's commuter trains go driverless.
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Re: How the Cost of Transportation will be disrupted in the

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Wed 06 Apr 2016, 18:47:36

and Trucks
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-18/r ... ne/6863814


Im surprised driver-less trains are a reality
You look at the maths a train only needs one driver to move x and to do that by trucks its a lot lot more drivers.
Trucks destroy roads and are far more dangerous than trains due to driver error.
Long term you would have to see less trucks doing long haul and more trains but you still need to move stuff from the station to the shop and the factory to the station.
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Re: How the Cost of Transportation will be disrupted in the

Unread postby christhewriter » Wed 06 Apr 2016, 19:23:07

batistasatoshi wrote:So, based on these "facts" (Sorry, but I agree with Outcast_Searcher, you have to share the source or sources where you claim this), how much will the cost be for both public and private transportation then, like shuttles, taxis, buses, limousines, etc.?


I shared the sources Will, but the links in my text were removed... :|
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Re: How the Cost of Transportation will be disrupted in the

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 06 Apr 2016, 19:43:43

Outcast_Searcher wrote:then we have the small towns, which a huge proportion of rural Kentuckians live. In the vast majority of those, there is zero mass transit, nor any realistic plans for any. For those folks, you may as well chide them for not believing in angels as to chide them for not using mass transit.


It doesn't have to be that way.

You can go to the smallest town in Europe and get there by bus. Lets say you are trying to go someplace like Taormina in Sicily (a pretty cool place, by the way). You take the train from Messina or Syracuse to the train station nearest to Taormina. Then when you get off the train there is a bus zone right outside the train station. The bus schedules are set so the busses are there right when the train arrives! You find the right bus for your little town and off you go.

All of Europe is organized like that. You don't even have to think about it----you can be in Spain or Switzerland or Greece or Belgium and you KNOW a bus will be there waiting when you get off the train in the station station. Find the bus, pay a Euro, and the bus will whisk you to all the local little towns.

Once out in the little towns there are bus stops with posted schedules telling you when the bus goes back to the train station.

--------------------------------------------------

When it comes to mass transit the US is a century behind the times.

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When the train arrives in Zermatt the busses will be waiting there to take people to their destinations --- you can pretty much count on it.
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Re: How the Cost of Transportation will be disrupted in the

Unread postby careinke » Thu 07 Apr 2016, 02:02:38

I believe the insurance costs for driverless cars would drop dramatically. With todays technology, a driverless car would be almost impossible to crash, and if it did, it would not be at fault. With a web set up between driverless cars, traffic flow would be very efficient, speeding tickets would disappear along with traffic jams, saving both energy and time.

I look forward to the day. I think it will be sooner than most of us suspect.
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Re: How the Cost of Transportation will be disrupted in the

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 07 Apr 2016, 02:50:10

I bet its going to be a lot longer than the optimists suspect. I expect automatic collision avoidance will be built into most or all new vehicles by 2020, at least automatic braking. That alone will reduce crash costs dramatically. Fleet turnover in western countries is about 10 years average, so I would expect by 2030 most of the fleet to have automatic braking. Assuming rollout of driverless cars by 2020, they won't be mandatory any time soon if ever, optimistically perhaps 25% of the fleet by 2030 is my guess. Collision avoidance gear will follow the same timeline for trucks, but they will still require driver- operators for reasons touched on above, the infrastructure for freight handling is not at all ready for automation.

I visit every kind of freight facility daily, the state of the art ones are significantly automated, but still require significant manual handling & these are tens of millions of dollars worth per facility. 3/4 of the businesses I service essentially nothing has changed since the 1950's. Half of the rest are somewhere in between.

This conversation reminds me of 'green car' optimists in the 1980's- by now we are already electrified, batteries have been reinvented, a solar panel on every roof etc.

Optional change takes a lot longer than forced change & when it involves expensive infrastructure it takes longer than that.
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Re: How the Cost of Transportation will be disrupted in the

Unread postby toolpush » Sat 09 Apr 2016, 02:14:07

Gypsy,

I see the Europeans at least are doing a fair bit of work on platooning. It is fairly easy to how on certain dense routes like Sydney - Melbourne, it would be possible to group a number of trunks on the outside of Sydney, then one driver take the platoon down the road, to a parking area outside Melbourne, where local drivers then make deliveries around town.
Not sure how far away this type of thing would be, but certainly it seems like a more likely stepping stone to the more futuristic total autonomous trucks and cars.
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Re: How the Cost of Transportation will be disrupted in the

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 12 Apr 2016, 12:43:25

careinke wrote:I believe the insurance costs for driverless cars would drop dramatically. With todays technology, a driverless car would be almost impossible to crash, and if it did, it would not be at fault. With a web set up between driverless cars, traffic flow would be very efficient, speeding tickets would disappear along with traffic jams, saving both energy and time.

I look forward to the day. I think it will be sooner than most of us suspect.

Too many assumptions. No facts.

If driverless cars are shown to be meaningfully safer, then yes, insurance costs will go down.

The idea that driverless cars will be "impossible" to crash is silly (especially now, but also in the future). Physics will still exist. Mechanical breakdowns will still occur, which can cause crashes. Computer software and sensors will still exist. And what happens if two driverless cars crash? It can't be any car at fault?

With today's technology, driverless cars are in early stages of testing. There are issues with sensors. There are issues with the cars getting confused by weather, by certain road conditions, and by human drivers (who, lo and behold, do not always drive exactly by the rules).

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-35280632

http://www.wired.com/2016/02/googles-se ... rst-crash/

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/google-driv ... -accident/

Traffic will still exist. Physical constraints will still exist. Driverless cars might well reduce traffic jams, but the idea that they will eliminate them when demand for road space is exceeded by the supply of cars wanting to use that space is just wishful thinking.

So you think NO traffic jams in Tokyo or NYC at rush hour? Near a stadium after a sports event? After a rock concert?
So what, the driverless cars will fly and have 100% impenetrable shields in a few years? This isn't Star Trek.

Driverless cars may be a BIG improvement in a generation or so as the technology matures and is tested a lot, and society makes the changes (legal, attitude, etc) required to accept them on a broad scale. But it's not magic. I hope to be able to utilize the technology before I need to quit driving for safety reasons (in an estimated 20 years or so), but I'm not confident I can count on that.

And the downside of the driving-related jobs they displace will be real. And the more successful they are, the more massive that jobs displacement will be, so like with all significant new technology, there are trade-offs.

The masses need to quit worshipfully believing that AI solves everything. A computer world champion at Chess or Go is impressive. The domains are incredibly narrow, and the efforts were massive and spanned several decades. The driverless car "nearless flawless" massive network problem on city streets is FAR more complex. It's madness to expect this to roll out without issues in just a few years.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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