[americandream]

Yes but Cid, from what I gather, you were in the diplomatic corp of the US. You made decisions and took actions that has brought us to this juncture of a global market place with certain propensities vis a vis the environment. Now you are recanting and expect the rest of us to follow suit. You were wrong the first time, whats to say that you are not wrong again. I on the other hand know capitalism for what it is, had I been influential during the Cold War, I would never have backed capitalism then, I don't now. However, it is all we have left, we may be able to innovate away from it. But throwing my hands up is not an option...I have a little daughter and I owe it to her to remain resolute as I always am, in not only seeking to understand capitalism and prosper in it for her sake, but also find the means to replace it in a way that benefits her. That to me is the responsible path. You have acted irresponsibly in the past, acting irresponsibly again just gets us into deeper shit.

[dohboi]

Well, we can all decide on our own who is projecting what onto whom.

The only religious-like themes I've seen presented in these forums are those of Ibon, with his pseudo-messianic "Overshoot Predator" which we are all supposed to fall down to and worship.

Very rich that he turns on those who don't immediately fall down to his chosen graven image as the ones embracing some false god.

We now get to see the workings of the monkey minds in our midst, and each of our own monkey minds gets to guess which mind is most monkey-ish.

May the best monkey win!!

[Cid_Yama]

AD, I was responsible for negotiating the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty. It prevented a nuclear war until Western leaders refused to ratify the amended version. Now they just ignore it all together.

You could blame me for preventing a nuclear war in the 1980's that might have saved us from this and ushered us safely into the next Ice Age.

Unforeseeable at the time. And you wouldn't be here to blame me. So there you go.

[americandream]

AD, I was responsible for negotiating the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty. It prevented a nuclear war until Western leaders refused to ratify the amended version. Now they just ignore it all together.

You could blame me for preventing a nuclear war in the 1980's that might have saved us from this and ushered us safely into the next Ice Age.

Unforeseeable at the time. And you wouldn't be here to blame me. So there you go.

Fair enough. However when people go railing on about overshoot and how awful we are as a species, lets remind them that millions died trying to hold back the tide of excess. We are in this mess today because those millions were considered an obstruction. We are lumbered with the spectacle of these forces now fighting on the world stage, all under the guise of the war of civilisations with nary a thought being given as to what they did just a mere few decades ago. I dont hold myself responsible for this mess and I sure as hell will have a damned good go at leaving a decent world for my kid.

[americandream]

The kingdom’s not for turning. There will be no production cuts. Oil will continue to be produced at unwanted levels until other suppliers are forced out of the market.

http://blogs.ft.com/nick-butler/2016/03 ... with-fire/

[americandream]

We shall see.

[americandream]

If we do not attend to these people now, this will rear up in ways that will make Trump look rather quaint.

[dolanbaker]

These two charts from the peakoilbarrel web site clearly show the difference between the drilling patterns between SA & the rest of the world.
It implies that in the near term SA will be one of the few not dropping production.

[Tanada]

While I believe KSA is doing their very best to under sell ever competitor in the world market it looks pretty clear to me they are maxed out. The only way, as ROCKMAN pointed out to us, for KSA or any other producer to make more in a low price market is to produce and sell more oil. It should have been obvious, but it wasn't, at least no to me, because a minor production cut should raise prices and more than compensate for the lost sale volume in pure cash flow terms.

The thing is, because they are pumping just as hard as they can right now KSA is demonstrating that their claimed 'spare capacity' is just a claim, and not much more than a claim. In the past they have used that claim to calm the markets when oil supplies were tight at $100/bbl but I am not so sure they will be able to do so in the future now that they have maxed out production.

Another thing to consider, by pumping, just as an example, 9 MM/bbl/d for a year they would conserve 365 MM/bbl/d to sell in future years when presumably the price would be higher than it is today. Once again pumping flat out now may be a survival strategy that works for the next few years, but it means they are less flexible and less profitable 5 or 10 years down the road. At least that is how I see it.

[ralfy]

I don't think stock market transactions have anything to do with "evolutionary conditions." If any, the former is part of activities that attempt to resist natural selection. But nature always wins in the end:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse

And there are no "narratives" involved in this, just data.

[ennui2]

Stalled? Production doesn't need to increase. The world doesn't need it right now. So why is that a problem?

[americandream]

Where is Rockman when we need him.

[americandream]

I don't think stock market transactions have anything to do with "evolutionary conditions." If any, the former is part of activities that attempt to resist natural selection. But nature always wins in the end:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse

And there are no "narratives" involved in this, just data.

I beg to differ. No one is in a position to comment until they experience these daily events and I tend to counter these dismissals for being ignorant and akin to the flat earth mentality. That said and given their sheer magnitude, and the fact that I have yet to fully understand them, I talk very obliquely about them. I have been struggling with them for years in a bid to make them accessible without destroying their commercial value for me.

[ROCKMAN]

AD - Not sure what I can add: the rig count, daily production and consumption, the price of oil as well as the decline rate of the shales are what they are. Various GUESSES could be made as to potential future changes in those stats.

But what we might guess won't change the numbers as we watch them develop. If nothing significant changes in the dynamics then by 1Q 2017 I think the trends should be self evident by that point.

[americandream]

AD - Not sure what I can add: the rig count, daily production and consumption, the price of oil as well as the decline rate of the shales are what they are. Various GUESSES could be made as to potential future changes in those stats.

But what we might guess won't change the numbers as we watch them develop. If nothing significant changes in the dynamics then by 1Q 2017 I think the trends should be self evident by that point.

Educated guesses, yes. I agree. This after all is the best we can do for the moment. But that said, shale as an insurance policy seems eminently sensible in a market led by risky practices (for global economic forwards provision.)