[GHung]

Despite massive central bank interventions, worldwide, post 2008, it seems growth is stalling. While consumption seems to be peaking, many indications are that the global economy, overall, is reaching hard limits. Hard to find any positive growth aspects in the beginning of 2016:

Commodities are crashing, being led by oil. Many analysts predict this to continue into the indefinite future.

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) is at an all-time low. Not much stuff moving around the globe.

Equity markets around the world are continuing their downward trend.

China is clearly struggling to maintain their growth rate with less-than-stellar results.

Debt levels, especially public debt in the more advanced economies, continues to rise to unprecedented highs. Debt to GDP in many countries is over 100%.

The climate is clearly changing, and world response is, so far, impotent. The ecosphere is in severe decline.

The political class is clearly clueless, either about our collective situation, or as to how to respond to our vast collection of predicaments. The electorate is deluded and clueless for the most part; many seeming to be suffering from anxiety born of cognitive dissonance.

Is "Limits To Growth" proving its value as a prediction of things to come? I propose a we compile a score-card of positive and negative trends; an evaluation of where we are and where we're headed. Links, charts, graphs, etc., welcome.

[Ibon]

It's hard to tell what possible shenanigans are left to put into play to extend this. Just don't underestimate the inertia to keep BAU on a steady course. Is the peak oil story an accurate analogy where we have extended the plateau for years with fracking etc. Is there a financial equivalent that will result in an extended period of fiat illusion or will we see an abrupt correction?

When a severe correction wipes out disposable income will I have to return to raising cattle here when the stream of tourists dry up?

How many of us are left with these existential questions of what we will all do in the event of a severe contraction?

Maybe raising sheep for the small Arab and Palestinian population here that run the duty free businesses at the border. Their sorrow will require many sacrificial lambs?

Enjoy each day as if the abrupt correction was tomorrow.

Save all your nickels and dimes in jars.

[dinopello]

Save all your nickels and dimes in jars.

I hate change. The result of that is for the last 25 years I take whatever change I have in my pocket when I get home and throw it in a container. Which then means when I go out and buy stuff with cash I never have change so I end up getting more. I have 6 or so boxes of change that are too heavy to lift. I thought it was stupid due to inflation but now maybe it was good!

Walmart closing 269 stores.

I think the contraction has begun, but there will be ups and downs. Capitulation occurs when the US President states that growth is no longer the goal. I think we may be a decade before that happens.

[dolanbaker]

No, the contraction hasn't started yet, but the growth is still slowing down and is slowing to levels that are having really serious consequences for the financial system that is hard coded to operate with growth.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Walmart closing 269 stores.

I sure wouldn't use this as "evidence" for this.

I've never been in one, and see no reason to with all the regular and superstore Walmarts around. With retail hurting in general from the internet, an efficient company like Walmart closing down an experiment that didn't work is logical -- not the end of the economy as we know. It is more evidence that smaller stores face increasing competitive problems, in general (not just at Walmart).

And I've never held Walmart stock directly (but probably a little accidentally through a broad stock mutual fund), so I have no axe to grind about Walmart.

It's actually kind of amazing to me how efficient the competition is in retail, by the major chains. Walmart opened one of their Neighboorhood Market grocery stores in my city years ago. Meh. I go to Kroger because it's closer, but overall, the distance is a more meaningful factor to me than the prices or service or inventory or employees at either store.

[Newfie]

I don't know if we are on the verg of a contraction or not.as always I think things are too chaotic to really know until later. The fog of war and all that. I do think it's a good possibility.

Thanks for posting this LTG chart. IIRC they said that once one of the major tracking trends starts to break bad in a big way, then their model fails, it can't track the backside of the trends. Things get too chaotic. Do you know if that is true?

[Pops]

Yeah Newf, Fog O War.
I thought, it is hard to tell the tide in a storm

Just my knee jerk but I think we're due for an extended period of stagnation while governments try to rescue the ownership from their excesses, ostensibly by modulating the Great Moderation.

The US is due for a recession, but that is just BAU.
Ditto the commodities bust; overinvestment, glut, consolidation... nothing new.
Those are enough to worry and plan for because it seems to me the cycle has been short-circuited the last couple of times. I think the Great Moderation has actually been the great postponement.

The boom these last several decades has been the payoff of globalization, computerization, communication, containerization. China and the BRICs were like a farm kid in town for his first payday, spent all they had then borrowed more to build a bunch of ghost cities. That's yer peak demand.

Can't tell much from here about future capacity, never could really. WAG is we'll have a further period in Zombietown before we have an idea of what limits may or may not have been crossed
.

[Cog]

No recession yet in the US. No spike in unemployment and 4th quarter 2015 was positive. Relax. Just some stock market hijinks. Nothing to worry about.

[shortonoil]

"Despite massive central bank interventions, worldwide, post 2008, it seems growth is stalling."

By our calculation world petroleum production will decline by 11 mb/d with 36 months. That will wipe out 4.4% of the world's economy. The world is now in a deflationary spiral from which there can be no escape. At what point the world's integrated global economy comes unglued is the now the real question. We will know when some people find food on the selves, and others don't.

[ennui2]

"By our calculation world petroleum production will decline by 11 mb/d with 36 months. That will wipe out 4.4% of the world's economy."

I wish someone would bank some of shortonoil's specific predictions so we can call him to task on them if they turn out to be bogus.

[ennui2]

I wish someone would bank some of shortonoil's specific predictions so we can call him to task on them if they turn out to be bogus.

That's your job ennui. Take it on. I expect to see a normalized ordered and indexed database of all predictions past and future scalared and weighted under a multipremised methodology. And I want to see in in various colors. Let's start with pink and transition to blue. Okay? Little baby steps. Now go to work in your cubicle and leave the godderned managers alone.

I may just do that. Would you like to be the first one to submit a prediction?

[dolanbaker]

"Despite massive central bank interventions, worldwide, post 2008, it seems growth is stalling."

By our calculation world petroleum production will decline by 11 mb/d with 36 months. That will wipe out 4.4% of the world's economy. The world is now in a deflationary spiral from which there can be no escape. At what point the world's integrated global economy comes unglued is the now the real question. We will know when some people find food on the selves, and others don't.

The question has to be, "how long before the reinvestment in shale oil brings results?"
I expect that we'll see an unstable supply as the money tap is turned off and on out of phase with production as the industry is unable to regulate the supply of oil in any meaningful manner, due mainly to the fact that investors want a fast return.

[Subjectivist]

"Despite massive central bank interventions, worldwide, post 2008, it seems growth is stalling."

By our calculation world petroleum production will decline by 11 mb/d with 36 months. That will wipe out 4.4% of the world's economy. The world is now in a deflationary spiral from which there can be no escape. At what point the world's integrated global economy comes unglued is the now the real question. We will know when some people find food on the selves, and others don't.

The question has to be, "how long before the reinvestment in shale oil brings results?"
I expect that we'll see an unstable supply as the money tap is turned off and on out of phase with production as the industry is unable to regulate the supply of oil in any meaningful manner, due mainly to the fact that investors want a fast return.

That is certainly the case in the USA/EU/AUS but what about the national oil companies in places like the Middle East? Or even in China? They are much more interested on the volume of oil they get to use in their economies than any potential profit that comes from providing that oil.

[dolanbaker]

Well, unless someone in the ME is lying about reserves, they'll just continue plodding along for another decade or so with a similar output as today. What is changing though is, as Saudi Arabia is dropping the fuel subsidy, the increase in their internal consumption is likely to slow down and maybe stop rising completely. China appears to be just filling the tanks while it's cheap.

[onlooker]

having really serious consequences for the financial system that is hard coded to operate with growth.

Absolutely, thus their surely must exist a sense of impending doom in all the important financial places. Stock market today took a plunge. I say yes the contraction has begun but it will be still awhile before we feel it in the US in a real nasty way. All in all, I still rather be living in the US than in Africa, ME or Asia where the effects of GW are starting to bite hard.

[dohboi]

Dow Jones down nearly 300 points today, about 2 and a half percent. Lots of volatility right now.

May be fog.

It may be the fog that keep us from noticing that we are going over a cliff...

Too soon to tell.

[Cog]

Its not a matter of if the DOW will zoom back up to the 18,000 level but when.

[MonteQuest]

I think the real contraction started in the early 70's with we went off the gold standard and the first oil shocks occurred. Since that time, GDP has only grown due to increased debt. Now, more debt doesn't grow GDP, it hinders it. I have a link to a study I will post when I find it again. But this chart alone speak volumes.