right now all oil is traded in dollar$ (because the currency of the USA is considered the default "reserve")
since about 2005 we seem to be more or less on the "plateau" of the peak oil curve,
http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-fi ... ncy-status
and I just read that china is looking at a shot to displace the dollar as the global reserve currency
http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-fi ... ncy-status
the thought which crossed my mind is that in about 10 years when we'll have a better understanding if conventional oil + tight (i.e. fracking) will be enough to stay on the "plateau" or will we be on the downward slope, which might coincidence with the dollar being dethroned...
with two strong "potential" headwinds in 10 years (the decline of oil and the us dollar losing is reserve status) ya think that is the actual time frame when the $hit hits the fan?
before I forget, one other economic head wind I think will hit USA in years to come is what to do about TRILLIONS in unfunded public pensions
FWIW I fear the problem of what is going to happen because of unfunded public pension more than what do do about social security, because next year accounting rules change and require public pensions be accounted for on a balance sheet