Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
NEW! Members Only Forums!
Access more articles, news & discussion by becoming a PeakOil.com Member.
pstarr wrote:There is no way in hell that electricity from coal, nuclear, renewables, or unobtainium will power this industrial civilization.
.....You gotta have a geologic perspective to make sense of this peak oil thing. It took 150 years for peak oil production. During that time everything changed. Everything. There is no going forward. Only down. This is it. In slow motion.
Timo wrote:Demand for NG, and the electricity it might generate, is simply too steep for its long-term ability to sustain. Yes, it is greatly reducing the use of coal and oil for a multitude of applications, but given what i've read here at PO (most of which i think i can trust), the actual lifespan of a frakked gas well is not all that long, and the production capacity of frakked wells goes down very fast. I'm simply comparing global demand against the thus-far proven production records of NG. NG may very well be the fuel of choice for the next decade, or maybe two decades, but i doubt its "the" answer for our needs, much longer than that. If we have technological alternatives that are more sustainable, cleaner, and more plentiful, those should be the ultimate objective to develop and implement. One fossil fuel in place of another isn't really thinking outside the box, and doesn't really advance the human condition on this planet. It just kicks the inevitable transition a bit further down the road.
Lore wrote: We will never build out the infrastructure to utilize what will end up being a very untenable energy resource.
Plantagenet wrote:Lore wrote: We will never build out the infrastructure to utilize what will end up being a very untenable energy resource.
Electric companies don't have to build out new infrastructure to use NG. They simply retrofit their existing powerplants to burn NG instead of coal. Its a relatively simple process.
Power plants across the US are converting from coal to NG right now. Thats why coal dropped by over 20% and NG use in US electric power plants went up over 20%-----in just the last year.
Comphrensive analysis. I'd say the fracting bubble has, or is about to burst.Pops wrote:Natural gas is really cheap, half what it was a couple of years ago, so the value of reserves will need to be restated – down of course.
With less reserves on the books (fewer assets) and returns from existing wells down (less cashflow) and continuing questions as to the profitability of fracking considering the steep depletion rate, AND finally, downgraded credit exactly when the ongoing need for credit to continuously drill new holes just to keep production flat... I'd not put an end to the story just yet.
You seem to have contradictory ideas here. The best we can hope for is a decentralized national/regional system of local agriculture and simpler industry . . . if an intact heavy (oil-based) transport system can still get to mines, farm fields, etc. But your contention that a global system will electrify seems highly doubtful. Resources and consumer products move by ocean ship (bunker oil), truck (diesel), and freight train (also diesel). I really don't see how globalism can survive peak oil. At all.SeaGypsy wrote:Which alludes to the backbone of my argument. There is an abundance of coal and gas, oil is evermore expensive, nukes are to unpopular. There being plenty of such fossil fuels, in such diversity of utility, an electric based conversion is all but inevitable in the global system. The only alternative is to have pockets of localized specialized energy and transport infrastructure region by region; which runs against the grain of globalism.
pstarr wrote: Resources and consumer products move by ocean ship (bunker oil), truck (diesel), and freight train (also diesel). I really don't see how globalism can survive peak oil. At all.
Plantagenet wrote:Your idea that the world is going to collapse due to peak oil presupposes that humans won't make adjustments or re-engineer parts of the transportation grid to run on alternative fuels.
But each of your three examples of things that will stop working due to peak oil can easily be converted to run on natural gas and/or electricity.
I guess it depends on your definition of "collapse. I am looking at "Never-Ending Economic Depression" as a reasonable definition. Pretty much assured without constant primary-energy production growth. Because our financial system (from the Federal Reserve, through commercial and retail banking, loans, business investment, personal inheritance, etc.) and normal global population growth all depend on an ever-increasing economic pie. That pie is shrinking because oil is shrinking.Plantagenet wrote:pstarr wrote: Resources and consumer products move by ocean ship (bunker oil), truck (diesel), and freight train (also diesel). I really don't see how globalism can survive peak oil. At all.
Your idea that the world is going to collapse due to peak oil presupposes that humans won't make adjustments or re-engineer parts of the transportation grid to run on alternative fuels.
Easily? That's laughable.Plantagenet wrote:But each of your three examples of things that will stop working due to peak oil can easily be converted to run on natural gas and/or electricity.
The European mass-transit was established about a century ago, just about the same time we ripped ours out. Our will not be replaced because of Republican hatred for public transport . . . and trains in particular. What would your plan look like? Privatize the Rocky Mountains? Give Boone the prairies? Only Big Government fix this, and Big Government will NEVER BE GIVEN THAT MANDATE. But you know that, right?Plantagenet wrote:(1) freight train (also diesel) Its a simple matter to electrify trains. The European train system already is electric, not diesel. No problemo.
Trucks run on diesel and can not be converted to NG. Besides a thousand miles of Rt 80 (the main trucking interstate for delivery of food and services to the East Coast) is without natural gas (or sufficient electricity for that matter) to power anything other than diesel. It would cost a trillions of dollars to electrify or NG our transport infrastructure.Plantagenet wrote:(2) truck (diesel) We can convert interstate trucking entirely to NG. Some US trucking companies are ALREADY converting their fleets to NG. T Boone Pickens and his business partners are already building NG gas stations along interstates as part of the "Pickens Plan" Check it out.
Right plant. Sure.Plantagenet wrote:3. ocean ship (bunker oil) Its just starting to happen right now. Norway is already converting some of its coastal fleet to NG and Japan is developing natural gas powered ocean ships
dream on dude. you sound like a hippie dippie now, and not a good hard-assed republican realist.Plantagenet wrote:Peak Oil doesn't mean that alternative fuels won't be used----in fact its MORE likely that we'll convert to alternative fuels like NG and electricty because of peak oil.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests