US economic recovery is complete. pt 2

[pstarr]

Jesus Christ. Not this nonsense again?

Oily, have you heard about peak oil? That where the primary energy for a highly complex industrial infrastructure and society begins to fail and all kinds of not-nice things start to happen? Like financial collapse? You can read about it here: OMG! I'm clueless

[OilFinder2]

Jesus Christ. Not this nonsense again?

Oily, have you heard about peak oil? That where the primary energy for a highly complex industrial infrastructure and society begins to fail and all kinds of not-nice things start to happen? Like financial collapse? You can read about it here: OMG! I'm clueless

Here ya go pstarr, just for you: A car made in Chicago:



And a car made in Kansas City:

[pstarr]

Exactly. Things developed slowly and so they will deteriorate slowly. No big surprise there.

[vision-master]

Oily has no vision of the future other than continuing BAU @ all costs. It's ppl like oily that x'plains why we haven't moved forward YET.

Oily - a sheeple of the Iron age, the age of pisces.......

[peripato]

Oily has no vision of the future other than continuing BAU @ all costs. It's ppl like oily that x'plains why we haven't moved forward YET.

Oily - a sheeple of the Iron age, the age of pisces.......

However it should be obvious by now that the petroleum driven FIRE (finance, insurance and real estate) economy is the one the power and economic elites want. It's what brings them wealth and domination and they will defend it with your lives, not theirs. There is no PLAN B as the EU Economics Commissioner Olli Rehn, said in the context of a Greek default, recently.

No Plan B
Last Man Standing
Strength through Exhaustion

Call it what you will, we should all settle our affairs accordingly in light of this reality...

[seahorse3]

Yarnell's Ice Cream closing citing rising costs of fuel and product supplies.

http://www.wreg.com/news/wreg-yarnells-ice-cream-closing-story,0,6808174.story?track=rss

[dolanbaker]

Exactly. Things developed slowly and so they will deteriorate slowly. No big surprise there.

In a world where the economic model requires infinite growth, that's not allowed!

[OilFinder2]

We are entering collapse phase part 2. The government is out of silver bullets. Buckle up people, these next few months are going to get ugly.

ISM manufacturing gauge tumbles in May, marking the third straight decline and the biggest one-month drop since 1984.

[...]

Oops!!! Doomer hopes dashed still again!! ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly rises to 55.3

By Greg Robb, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Activity at the nation’s manufacturing firms accelerated in June, according to a closely followed survey of top executives released Friday, data which eased fears about the health of the U.S. economy.

The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index rose to 55.3% in June higher than the 53.5% in May.

[...]

Twelve of 18 industries as tracked by Tempe, Ariz.-based ISM were growing in June, down from 14 in May. There were five industries reporting contraction in June: plastics and rubber, apparel, leather, primary metals, wood and food and beverage. Read full survey.

June’s new-orders index rose to 51.6% from 51.0% in May, the ISM’s data showed.

Production also jumped, hitting 54.5% from 54.0% in the prior month.

Inventories jumped 54.1% in June from 48.7% in the prior month.

There was good news on the job front as the employment index rose to 59.9% from 58.2% in May.

[...]

Marketwatch

In other news out today, consumer sentiment and construction spending disappointed, but if anything that continues the theme that manufacturing has been leading the recovery and expansion.

Also, the fact that the national ISM rose when the Empire State and Phily Fed manufacturing surveys went into the negative I think shows the relative importance of the Midwest (Chicago & Kansas City) and Richmond Fed areas. The Dallas Fed survey was also negative but some of the details in that one were actually pretty good.

[seahorse3]

Well, many analysts take on the rising ISM # is it's actually negative in terms of predicting future growth. According to GS and others, the # rose bc inventories rose, which for whatever reason the analysts say is a bad sign meaning less future growth.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

[Armageddon]

Just because companies are making the shit doesn't mean people are buying the shit....


GM Channel Stuffing Hits Record As Dealer Inventory Surges In June To All Time High 605,000 Units

After the "Japanese renaissance" component of the global economic rebound thesis was effectively negated yesterday following the release of the worse than expected Tankan manufacturer index, today we get point blank evidence that the second leg of the economic recovery is now completely debunked, after GM, whose June car sales were up 10.2%, broadly missing expectations of an 18% pick up, but far more importantly, and as we have been pointing out for a year now, the bulk of GM production does not ultimately lead to any sales, but merely more and more channel stuffing in the form of month end dealer inventory which in June just hit 605,000. Point being: the Japanese supply shortage is a strawman that has nothing to do with actual demand which to the chagrin of the Koolaid drinkers is a critical component in determining clearing prices, and which is simply non-existent despite the government's eagerness to provide subprime loans to everyone (or no one as the case may be) who wishes to buy a GM vehicle.

ZH

[OilFinder2]

Zerohedge always posts that distortion. The monthly sales figures the auto companies post are actual sales to buying customers, not shipments to dealers. Just more doomer spin from Zerohedge.

GM didn't match analyst expectations but Ford and Chyrsler did well.

LINK

July 1, 2011, 1:13 p.m. EDT
Detroit Three post double-digit sales gains
By Shawn Langlois, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — General Motors Co. posted another month of double-digit unit sales gains early Friday, as easing gasoline prices didn’t steer shoppers away from smaller, more fuel-efficient cars.

Analysts had been looking for even better results, though, which kept GM shares in check early. The stock hovered around the flat line even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 120 points to 12,534.

Ford Motor Co., riding the success of its Focus and Fusion models, fared even better, with a 13.6% rise to 194,114 vehicles.

Overall, Ford cars rose 17%, crossovers added 15.3% and trucks tacked on 9.1%. The best-selling F-Series pickup saw sales rise 6.7% to 49,618 units.

Shares of Ford rose 1.2% to $13.95 and have now surged 32% in the past year.

Chrysler Group LLC improved the most among the U.S. trio, up 30% to 120,394 cars and trucks, its best June since 2007. Retail sales, as opposed to fleet sales, had their best month of the year with a 46% improvement.

Chrysler, controlled by Italy’s Fiat has now logged 15 straight months of year-over-year sales gains.

[...]

[Armageddon]

construction spending down again

[img][http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hd10qQ0FFN0/Tg3p2MnsWqI/AAAAAAAAKdI/Gzg53orlBYg/s320/ConstructionSpendingMay2011.jpg/img]

[Sixstrings]

Oops!!! Doomer hopes dashed still again!! ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly rises to 55.3[/color][/size][/b][/url]

By Greg Robb, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Activity at the nation’s manufacturing firms accelerated in June, according to a closely followed survey of top executives released Friday, data which eased fears about the health of the U.S. economy.

From what I've read this was a surprise.. supposedly none of the regional Fed surveys indicated this.. some say this number was cooked.

I also read that inventories are correspondingly up so we may be making more but not selling more so........... it ain't good news unless the consumer finds some money somewhere to buy some stuff.

[Lore]

Oops!!! Doomer hopes dashed still again!! ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly rises to 55.3[/color][/size][/b][/url]

By Greg Robb, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Activity at the nation’s manufacturing firms accelerated in June, according to a closely followed survey of top executives released Friday, data which eased fears about the health of the U.S. economy.

From what I've read this was a surprise.. supposedly none of the regional Fed surveys indicated this.. some say this number was cooked.

I also read that inventories are correspondingly up so we may be making more but not selling more so........... it ain't good news unless the consumer finds some money somewhere to buy some stuff.

We'll know better next quarter. If the python just ate the pig, it will take a while to digest and the numbers will take a nose dive. Specially since this is coming at a time of a general slowdown in global manufacturing.

[OilFinder2]

From what I've read this was a surprise.. supposedly none of the regional Fed surveys indicated this.. some say this number was cooked.

As I said below the article and posted the past couple days, the Richmond Fed survey did come in positive, and the Chicago Fed's Midwest manufacturing survey came in positive. In addition, there are large swaths of the US which aren't covered by any Fed manufacturing survey (the west coast, the Southwest, New England and much of the Southeast in the Atlanta Fed district), and that covers a huge amount of manufacturing, so the regional Fed surveys which do exist have definite limitations on how applicable they are to the nation as a whole.

[Lore]

Bottom line, U.S. manufacturing jobs will never come back to the way they were in our new global economy. Evident with the changing demographics, the flat lining of middle class income workers wages and increased productivity due to automation.

While any increase in manufacturing is good news for corporate landlords and their investors it's meaningless for the millions of workers who will never again be employed in traditional industries.

[Serial_Worrier]

Out of work manufacturing workers can be Wal Mart shelf stockers or something.

[OilFinder2]

LINK

Orders to U.S. Factories Rose 0.8% in May
By Alex Kowalski - Jul 5, 2011 7:20 AM PT

Orders placed with U.S. factories increased in May, indicating manufacturing may rebound from a slowdown in economic growth in the first half of 2011.

Bookings for manufacturers’ goods rose 0.8 percent, less than forecast, after a revised 0.9 percent decline in April that was smaller than previously estimated, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Demand for durable goods that are meant to last at least three years increased 2.1 percent, while unfilled orders climbed the most since September.

Manufacturing is showing signs of recovering from parts shortages linked to the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, at the same time commodity costs ebb and growing economies overseas fuel exports. The improvement in orders supports the view of Federal Reserve officials, who last month said the economic slackening likely reflects temporary restraints.

[...]

[OilFinder2]

Speaking of industry, here's something which should help industrial production figures in the coming years.

America's Newfound Energy

Amazingly, Rystad Energy, a Norwegian consultancy that analyzes field data, foresees U.S. combined oil and gas output actually surpassing its prior 1972 peak in the early 2020s. Long-term declines in natural gas and oil output have reversed in recent years ... Similar to what's happened with shale gas, shale oil output from areas like the Bakken formation stretching beneath North Dakota and Montana is rising quickly. Rystad expects U.S. oil production, which bottomed out at 5.4 million barrels per day in 2008, to reach 7.4 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.

And from the same article, if this trend continues it should help our balance of trade:

On another front, coal exports in the year ended in March topped 90 million tons, up 42% and the highest level since the mid-1990s.

The coal industry is restructuring to take advantage of this. Big miners such as Arch Coal have led consolidation in the sector, aiming to control more metallurgical coal. This higher value coal, used in steel-making, is in great demand in China.

U.S. demand for coal has fallen this past decade and remains under pressure as power plant emissions standards tighten. However, demand elsewhere is expected to keep growing strongly. Recent floods in Australia, disrupting supplies from the world's biggest coal exporter, have encouraged buyers to diversify their sources. Apart from U.S. miners, that is good news for railroad operators such as CSX Corp. ferrying cargoes to and from ports.

[Lore]

More smoke and mirrors to keep the Wall Street Casino in play.