Reports of US Economic Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated

[TheAntiDoomer]

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/ ... xaggerated

The LA Times ran a story last weekend titled, Still Betting on Economic Doomsday -- and Still Waiting. The article highlighted the plight of what Barry Ritholtz calls the Zombie Bears -- "pundits" who will state the economy is on the brink of economic collapse regardless of the underlying data. What is most important is these "pundits" have been wrong for the last five quarters when the economy has grown and all evidence indicates a recovery is underway. Yet, for reasons unknown, their writings still spread like wildfire throughout the blogsphere.

So many purty V shaped graphs! they get me really really corny!

[diemos]

So many purty V shaped graphs!

Yup, that's a might purty graph. Only another year and a half at that rate to get back to peak production.

Except ... oopsie ... we're already over $80/bbl at the current level of economic activity. How many more barrels per day will it take to get back to peak production?

[Lore]

So many purty V shaped graphs!

Yup, that's a might purty graph. Only another year and a half at that rate to get back to peak production.

Except ... oopsie ... we're already over $80/bbl at the current level of economic activity. How many more barrels per day will it take to get back to peak production?

And then a “V” plunge and then another “V” recovery and so on, and so forth, with each recovery getting shorter and each plunge getting deeper and longer.

[Cog]

Here is another graph but its not as corny.

[Armageddon]

That's what you get after 10 trillion of FED stimulus. Let's see what happens now.

[TWilliam]

Let's see what happens now.

Hmmm...

Everyone burps then comes back for seconds?

[TheAntiDoomer]

That's what you get after 10 trillion of FED stimulus. Let's see what happens now.

I'll be wating....

[Armageddon]

Let's see, new home construction, which is the backbone of the US economy and creates millions of jobs directly and indirectly, went from 2.5 million homes per month to 400,000 per month. Wake me up when it's atleast 750.000. (hint, never again)

[pstarr]

Let's see, new home construction, which is the backbone of the US economy and creates millions of jobs directly and indirectly, went from 2.5 million homes per month to 400,000 per month. Wake me up when it's atleast 750.000. (hint, never again)

Yup. New home construction (and the conversion of stable slopes, streams, wetlands, sacred places, watersheds, estuaries, wildernesses, calving grounds, precious ecosystems and all the natural capital that allows life on earth to thrive.) into American track homes and suburban sprawl is the backbone of our economy. Problem is that backbone has arthritis, bone cancer, and it slipped a disk somewhere.

[Armageddon]

Let's see, new home construction, which is the backbone of the US economy and creates millions of jobs directly and indirectly, went from 2.5 million homes per month to 400,000 per month. Wake me up when it's atleast 750.000. (hint, never again)

Yup. New home construction (and the conversion of stable slopes, streams, wetlands, sacred places, watersheds, estuaries, wildernesses, calving grounds, precious ecosystems and all the natural capital that allows life on earth to thrive.) into American track homes and suburban sprawl is the backbone of our economy. Problem is that backbone has arthritis, bone cancer, and it slipped a disk somewhere.

I never said it was a good backbone. Just saying it creates 10's of million of jobs.

[pstarr]

Let's see, new home construction, which is the backbone of the US economy and creates millions of jobs directly and indirectly, went from 2.5 million homes per month to 400,000 per month. Wake me up when it's atleast 750.000. (hint, never again)

Yup. New home construction (and the conversion of stable slopes, streams, wetlands, sacred places, watersheds, estuaries, wildernesses, calving grounds, precious ecosystems and all the natural capital that allows life on earth to thrive.) into American track homes and suburban sprawl is the backbone of our economy. Problem is that backbone has arthritis, bone cancer, and it slipped a disk somewhere.

I never said it was a good backbone. Just saying it creates 10's of million of jobs.

Just having fun at your expense

[TheAntiDoomer]

BREAKING NEWS: Consumer confidence rises in November to 54.1, highest level in 5 months

[Cog]

BREAKING NEWS: Consumer confidence rises in November to 54.1, highest level in 5 months

How low was it 6 months ago?

[Armageddon]

Let's think about what the collapse of the housing industry in the US does for the economy for a minute. How many jobs does this effect :

-architects
-engineers
-inspectors
-concrete workers
-framers
-plumbers
-electricians
-drywallers
-tapers
-painters
-roofers
-heating/cooling/hvac
-gutter companies
-siding installers
-kitchen and bathroom installers
-flooring installers
-deck builders
-fence installers
-mini blind companies
-landscapers
-sales reps
-subdivision supers
-construction laborers
-manufacturers of all the supplies, equipment and accessories (think cabinets,flooring,lumber,lighting,shingles,doors,windows, etc)
-salesman and staff of the companies that make all of these supplies, equipment and accessories
-restaurants surrounding these companies
-auto's (most of these people aren't buying new cars anymore) The demise of the auto industry leads to an entire new list of jobs being effected)
-furniture stores
-small construction companies and re-modelers
-hardware stores
-building supply stores


It is crazy when you think about. The list goes on and on and seems almost endless. Also, think of the trickle down effect, if these people are hurting, they cutting back, therefore hurting other companies. This is why I said new home construction is the backbone of the US. I wouldn't be surprised if at least 25 million people are directly or indirectly tied into new home construction, possibly more. The housing will NEVER come back. There are millions of empty houses on the market with millions more in foreclosure. They could not build a new house for 20 years and there would still be too many.

[pstarr]

Armageddon I was not being funny or facetious. I agree with you more than totally. The real wealth of the USA was it's resources--forests, coal, oil, copper, gold, arable land and deep soil etc.-- and their conversion into suburbia. Our Big Bidness was building more suburbia, more roads, autos, buildings, stop lights, sewers, treatment plants, housing developments, shopping centers, convenience stores. That was The Job Program. The rest--high tech, medical and finances were mostly just bubbles along the way.

We got rich fairly quickly in a one-time conversion of our natural capital into suburban sprawl, the greatest misallocation of wealth in the history of the world (to paraphrase Kunstler). It ain't the American people, inventions, can-do capitalism, or our love of Jesus that made us rich. It is what we have lost forever. That has been liquidated.

[Armageddon]

pstar, I know you were. I was just re-iterating some facts for the morons on the board who think there is going to be a recovery.

[Armageddon]

The lowering of the interest rates to create a huge housing bubble was orchestrated for one final rape and pillage before the collapse.

[pstarr]

The lowering of the interest rates to create a huge housing bubble was orchestrated for one final rape and pillage before the collapse.

That just about sums it all up. Did it start under Clinton or before under the Reagan/Bush regime?

[TheAntiDoomer]

Well LOOKY here:

Did the Labor Department Miss 350,000 Jobs?

http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com ... 0000-jobs/

The employment numbers came out on Friday morning for November and they were far lower than people were hoping for. But here's the problem: The employment picture might not be as disappointing as the number the Department of Labor reported. Why's that? The Labor Department failed to count just over 350,000 jobs in its final tally. Include those jobs into the mix, and the economy actually added nearly 400,000 jobs in the month of November. So why did November become such a downer? Here's why:

Signs that more people are hiring

http://lifeinc.todayshow.com/_news/2010 ... are-hiring

Case in point: Despite the bad news last week showing the unemployment rate rose in November, a separate report out Tuesday offered more hope.

It showed that there the number of job openings increased again in October – to the highest level in more than two years - while the number of job separations decreased

.

[TWilliam]

*cough*
(seasonal)