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US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Unread postby vision-master » Wed 15 Dec 2010, 18:41:21

.4 % 8O taht's fricken huge! :)
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Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 15 Dec 2010, 19:05:25

^
This is a monthly data set. At an annualized rate that would be +4.8%, which is pretty good.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
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Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Unread postby steam_cannon » Thu 16 Dec 2010, 11:04:56

OilFinder2 wrote:^
This is a monthly data set. At an annualized rate that would be +4.8%, which is pretty good.
A whopping 4% would be just great, except even if you project this monthly projection as if it was the whole year, it would not make up for even a fraction of our losses. That graphic you posted summarizes your argument quite well.

What you're offering is a Pollyanna argument. And the problem with Pollyanna arguments is they over emphasize small positive gains and don't acknowledge the whole economic picture. The musicians on the titanic probably were getting really great tips right at the end, but how many lived to spend them? I think your arguments and your picture of a woman putting her fingers in her ears, disrespect the real economic problems people are experiencing.

It would be a pollyannaism so say these small gains mean our economy mean that we are doing well.
It would far more reasonable to say the rate of loss may have slowed. It would be reasonable to say there have been some small positive gains for parts of the economy. This would be a fair and reasonable assessment.

wiki wrote:Pollyanna Creep

Pollyanna Creep is a phrase that originated with John Williams, a California-based economic analyst and statistician.[1] It describes the way the U.S. government has modified the way important economic measures are calculated with the purpose of giving a better impression of economic development. This is a clear reference, in a sarcastic way, to Pollyanna's proverbial optimism. John Williams and other economic analysts, such as Kevin P. Phillips [2] argue the such manipulations distort the perception of electors and economic factors and have ill effects on political and investment decisions.

By more realistic accounting, the dollar has seen significant losses since 2000. Loss in currency value means GDP numbers are worse then they look, stocks have to go up just to stay at the same value and in reality most profit numbers are losses if they aren't greater then the losses in value they are denominated in.
Image

...why I’m bearish with stocks breaking to new highs. The simple answer to this question is that I’m not bearish, I’m a realist. Stocks haven’t made a cent of money in over ten years.

...measuring your stock portfolio in US dollars is like claiming you’ve grown because your ruler shrinks: it is an illusion. After all, the dollar has lost roughly 30% of its value since 2000.

It's a deep hole we've gotten into and going to be hard to get out.
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Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 16 Dec 2010, 14:11:11

steam_cannon wrote:A whopping 4% would be just great, except even if you project this monthly projection as if it was the whole year, it would not make up for even a fraction of our losses.

This particular index already has made up a large portion of its losses. Here is the chart:

Image

Looks to be roughly halfway there.

steam_cannon wrote:By more realistic accounting, the dollar has seen significant losses since 2000. Loss in currency value means GDP numbers are worse then they look, stocks have to go up just to stay at the same value and in reality most profit numbers are losses if they aren't greater then the losses in value they are denominated in.

Not sure what this had to do with the Fed's industrial production index (which is an index, not a dollar value). As for GDP, the headline number is a real GDP number, which means it's adjusted for inflation, which, in turn, reflects whatever loss/gain in the value of the dollar.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
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Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Unread postby eXpat » Thu 16 Dec 2010, 22:10:15

US public debt set to pass US annual GDP. The 100 percent GDP to public debt threshold is quickly approaching.
People may not even realize that during the Great Depression, US Federal debt as a percent of GDP did not even reach 40 percent. Part of this was because the size of government was much smaller in military, public services, and entitlements. The only time in history that the US as a whole spent more than it produced was during World War II. That is the only time but we are now quickly approaching the 100 percent range of federal debt to GDP as a percentage. The US Treasury and Federal Reserve are aiming to pull the economy out of the Great Recession by going into further debt. Think about this for a few minutes. What led the US into a major financial crisis were banks allowing people to go into too much debt buying homes, cars, and other things they clearly were not able to afford. While the banks were bailed out courtesy of taxpayers, the central banks are aiming to go deeper into debt just to create additional bubbles. Bankers are loving this and their profits reflect this change. Yet as many chastise economies around the world for going too deep into debt it is likely we will hit the 100 percent threshold next year.
...
As of December 14 the total public debt outstanding to the penny was $13.85 trillion. Put this in context with the current GDP figures:
The third quarter US GDP figures stood at $14.75 trillion. The current difference amounts to roughly $900 billion. But given the current tax bill being pushed and also quantitative easing ($600 more billion) it is likely that this unfortunate milestone will be passed in 2011. What is currently happening on a global scale is similar to someone paying off today’s credit card bill with another credit card. How is this sustainable in the long run? It isn’t. But bankers are loving it at the moment because they can speculate and gamble on a global scale with easy access to cheap debt.

http://fedupusa.org/2010/12/16/the-red-queen-race-of-debt-%E2%80%93-us-public-debt-set-to-pass-us-annual-gdp-the-100-percent-gdp-to-public-debt-threshold-is-quickly-approaching/
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Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Thu 16 Dec 2010, 22:22:57

eXpat wrote:US public debt set to pass US annual GDP. The 100 percent GDP to public debt threshold is quickly approaching.
People may not even realize that during the Great Depression, US Federal debt as a percent of GDP did not even reach 40 percent. Part of this was because the size of government was much smaller in military, public services, and entitlements. The only time in history that the US as a whole spent more than it produced was during World War II. That is the only time but we are now quickly approaching the 100 percent range of federal debt to GDP as a percentage. The US Treasury and Federal Reserve are aiming to pull the economy out of the Great Recession by going into further debt. Think about this for a few minutes. What led the US into a major financial crisis were banks allowing people to go into too much debt buying homes, cars, and other things they clearly were not able to afford. While the banks were bailed out courtesy of taxpayers, the central banks are aiming to go deeper into debt just to create additional bubbles. Bankers are loving this and their profits reflect this change. Yet as many chastise economies around the world for going too deep into debt it is likely we will hit the 100 percent threshold next year.
...
As of December 14 the total public debt outstanding to the penny was $13.85 trillion. Put this in context with the current GDP figures:
The third quarter US GDP figures stood at $14.75 trillion. The current difference amounts to roughly $900 billion. But given the current tax bill being pushed and also quantitative easing ($600 more billion) it is likely that this unfortunate milestone will be passed in 2011. What is currently happening on a global scale is similar to someone paying off today’s credit card bill with another credit card. How is this sustainable in the long run? It isn’t. But bankers are loving it at the moment because they can speculate and gamble on a global scale with easy access to cheap debt.

http://fedupusa.org/2010/12/16/the-red-queen-race-of-debt-%E2%80%93-us-public-debt-set-to-pass-us-annual-gdp-the-100-percent-gdp-to-public-debt-threshold-is-quickly-approaching/


Hah! I had the same post 4 minutes ago in the National Debt thread. This is more evidence of a sorry, pathetic, non-existent "recovery" -- a "recovery" which exists only because the dysfunctional US Fed'l Govt eagerly delves deeper and deeper into debt at the expense of future generations. Significantly, this trend is accelerating ... and one needn't use much imagination to envision what the outcome would be if interest rates were to increase (which they will)...

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Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Unread postby steam_cannon » Fri 17 Dec 2010, 01:42:29

OilFinder2 wrote:Looks to be roughly halfway there.

Not sure what this had to do with the Fed's industrial production index (which is an index, not a dollar value).
Sorry to hear you're confused.

But stagnant production numbers don't make up for currency value losses, personal income losses or lack of jobs for workers. That chart basically says that production has been stagnant since 2000. We are presently fighting two wars. This chart should be cranking from military production, but it's not. A weak trickle of military production is not a sign of prosperity.

We have a growing population of people out of work. Stagnant is bad. Also it's an index that measures factors like electricity usage by industry as a proof of production. How it is calculated was changed around 2005 in such a way that some argue gives it a positive bias. And these numbers still aren't that great.

Overall, I'm glad it's not going down and it's an ok predictor of production activity. But it's not a good predictor or wealth distribution and general economic well being. And these are more important factors.

OilFinder2 wrote:As for GDP
Unfudged, it's still negative.

Daniel_Plainview wrote:...one needn't use much imagination to envision what the outcome would be if interest rates were to increase (which they will)
Yep.
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Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 17 Dec 2010, 12:45:48

steam_cannon wrote:But stagnant production numbers don't make up for currency value losses

Need I repeat? The Federal Reserve's industrial production index is not a dollar value. It's a composite index made up of multiple inputs. Nor is it stagnant - it's exhibiting precisely the fall and rise you would expect from a deep recession and rapid recovery. Notice the V.

I'm so sorry you have to delude yourself with Shadowstats and other doomer propaganda in order to retain your blinders about the US recovery. Here's another one out today which you undoubtedly will have to go into denial about.

LINK
U.S. Leading Indicators Index Increases by Most in 8 Months
By Courtney Schlisserman - Dec 17, 2010 8:02 AM PT

The index of U.S. leading economic indicators increased in November by the most in eight months, a signal the recovery will strengthen early next year.

The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months rose 1.1 percent after a revised 0.4 percent gain in October, the New York-based group said today. The reading matched the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Americans grew more confident last month, stocks rose and fewer people filed for unemployment benefits, boosting the prospects for consumer spending in coming months. Until growth picks up and sparks bigger job gains, Federal Reserve policy makers will stick to a plan to pump more money into the economy.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
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Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 17 Dec 2010, 13:00:43

Here's a nice little tidbit. Would love to hear the doomer explanation for this.

LINK
LA Port Export Volume Highest Ever for November
by: Mark Perry December 17, 2010

The Port of Los Angeles released container statistics today for November, and one of the highlights of the report is that the number of loaded outbound containers (exports) in November at 170,319 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalents) was the third highest monthly total on record, the highest monthly volume since August 2008, and the highest-ever export container count for the month of November in history. Compared to the pre-recession level of 145,227 TEUs in November 2007, export volume this year was 17.3% higher for the same month.

Overall shipping for the month of November at the Los Angeles port (666,970 TEUs) was 15% above last year's level, and year-to-date shipping volume has improved by 16.7% from 2009.


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Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
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Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Unread postby vision-master » Fri 17 Dec 2010, 13:10:58

Here's a nice little tidbit. Would love to hear the doomer explanation for this.


Simple, we depend on cheap shit from China more and more. This is a good thing Oily? :lol:
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Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 17 Dec 2010, 13:17:10

vision-master wrote:
Here's a nice little tidbit. Would love to hear the doomer explanation for this.


Simple, we depend on cheap shit from China more and more. This is a good thing Oily? :lol:

Umm . . . did you actually read it? Those are outbound containers (exports), not imports.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
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Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Unread postby vision-master » Fri 17 Dec 2010, 13:52:36

Empty ones....... lol :lol:
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Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 17 Dec 2010, 14:08:21

vision-master wrote:Empty ones....... lol :lol:

Image

Sorry, that was full containers.

The actual data
PortOfLosAngeles wrote:Port of Los Angeles Container Statistics - 2010

Out Loaded (TEUs):
October: 151,048.75
November: 170,319.25

Notice the 170.3K not-so-coincidentally appears to be precisely where the last data point on the chart shows.

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Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
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Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Unread postby vision-master » Fri 17 Dec 2010, 14:20:27

Ok Oily, if'n everything is so goddam rosey, why the fook did our Governer bail out the public pension plan I'm on that has been around 103 years in the tune of 15 Million each and every year until 2031. AND on top of that, retirees where getting 8% to 10% increases every year back in the 90's. NOW it's fixed @ 1% increase forever.

In Conference Committee
After initial approval in both houses of the legislature, the bill went to conference committee before the final vote. The committee agreed to a compromise on State funding for the Minneapolis Employees Retirement Fund, which became a separate division of PERA under the bill. The package calls for a State contribution of $13.75 million in 2011 and 2012. Thereafter the state would contribute $15 million annually until 2031, or until the plan is fully funded, whichever occurs sooner.


All the young ppl have to live @ home bc there ain't no shitten jobs.

I can smell yer arse all the way through the internet. Let me tell you -it's stinks.
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Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 17 Dec 2010, 14:28:08

I don't know the answer to your question. A wave of retiring baby boomers could drain anyone's retirement fund, regardless of economic conditions. And/or maybe the retirement fund was badly managed. If they'd invested it all in the DJIA in March of last year, they'd be up about 80% by now! :lol:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
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Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Unread postby vision-master » Fri 17 Dec 2010, 14:32:40

I got one more thing to say, It's getten real bad for lot's of folks out there. Are you in some kind of bubble World or what? You keep comming around here spreading lies about how things are looking up when in fact, for most, it's only the start.

Maybe you need to become one of those talking heads on TV.
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Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Unread postby vision-master » Fri 17 Dec 2010, 15:53:18

Just peachy,eh - more good news.

Food prices rise sharply - and there's more to come

Image
Grocery prices grew by more than 1 1/2 times the overall rate of inflation this year, outpaced only by costs of transportation and medical care, according to numbers released Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor


http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... 1GQRDL.DTL
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Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 17 Dec 2010, 19:04:30

vision-master wrote:I got one more thing to say, It's getten real bad for lot's of folks out there. Are you in some kind of bubble World or what? You keep comming around here spreading lies about how things are looking up when in fact, for most, it's only the start.

deleted how come . . .

. . . auto sales are going up? Again.
J.D. Power and Associates Reports: Strength in December New-Vehicle Retail Sales Expected to Lead to Robust Finish for 2010

WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif., Dec. 16, 2010 /PRNewswire/ -- The December new-vehicle retail sales pace is significantly beating expectations, driving a strong close to a challenging year of recovery, according to J.D. Power and Associates, which gathers real-time transaction data from more than 8,900 retail franchisees throughout the United States.

Retail Light-Vehicle Sales

December new-vehicle retail sales are expected to come in at 936,300 units, which represents a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 10.8 million units. December retail sales are expected to be up 19 percent from one year ago. Retail transactions are the most accurate measurement of true underlying consumer demand for new vehicles.

"Even with the possibility that sales in the third week of December may be affected by the recent winter storms, the strength in sales during the second week is expected to continue through the rest of the month," said Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates. "As a result, it appears that 2010 will end on a high note."

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
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Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 17 Dec 2010, 19:15:26

vision-master wrote:Just peachy,eh - more good news.

Food prices rise sharply - and there's more to come

[...]

Grocery prices grew by more than 1 1/2 times the overall rate of inflation this year, outpaced only by costs of transportation and medical care, according to numbers released Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor


http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... 1GQRDL.DTL

1.7%. Gee, we must be doomed.
article wrote:While overall inflation nationwide was 1.1 percent, grocery prices went up 1.7 percent nationally and 1.3 percent in the Bay Area, said Todd Johnson, an economist for the Bureau of Labor Statistics office in San Francisco.

But wait - there's more! The first paragraph sez:
For the first time since 2008, inflation is hitting consumers in the stomach.

Now why would that be? Could it possibly be, as your own article says . . .
The government agency is forecasting a 2 to 3 percent food inflation rate in 2011 - a pace that is not unusual in a rebounding economy.


It's official: You yourself have posted an article you agreed with that says the economy is rebounding. I hereby welcome you to the Club of Non-Doomers and other Cornucopians. :razz:

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Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
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Re: US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected pt 3

Unread postby eXpat » Thu 23 Dec 2010, 11:54:42

$2tn debt crisis threatens to bring down 100 US cities
Overdrawn American cities could face financial collapse in 2011, defaulting on hundreds of billions of dollars of borrowings and derailing the US economic recovery. ...
More than 100 American cities could go bust next year as the debt crisis that has taken down banks and countries threatens next to spark a municipal meltdown, a leading analyst has warned.

Meredith Whitney, the US research analyst who correctly predicted the global credit crunch, described local and state debt as the biggest problem facing the US economy, and one that could derail its recovery.

"Next to housing this is the single most important issue in the US and certainly the biggest threat to the US economy," Whitney told the CBS 60 Minutes programme on Sunday night.

"There's not a doubt on my mind that you will see a spate of municipal bond defaults. You can see fifty to a hundred sizeable defaults – more. This will amount to hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of defaults."

New Jersey governor Chris Christie summarised the problem succinctly: "We spent too much on everything. We spent money we didn't have. We borrowed money just crazily. The credit card's maxed out, and it's over. We now have to get to the business of climbing out of the hole. We've been digging it for a decade or more. We've got to climb now, and a climb is harder."

American cities and states have debts in total of as much as $2tn. In Europe, local and regional government borrowing is expected to reach a historical peak of nearly €1.3tn (£1.1tn) this year.

Cities from Detroit to Madrid are struggling to pay creditors, including providers of basic services such as street cleaning. Last week, Moody's ratings agency warned about a possible downgrade for the cities of Florence and Barcelona and cut the rating of the Basque country in northern Spain. Lisbon was downgraded by rival agency Standard & Poor's earlier this year, while the borrowings of Naples and Budapest are on the brink of junk status. Istanbul's debt has already been downgraded to junk.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/dec/20/debt-crisis-threatens-us-cities
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