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pstarr wrote:The Techtopians needs to go to jail for crimes against humanity.

Be careful. That axe you're grinding is showing.



Oh, and BTW, those techtopians are responsible for giving you the toy you rely on to bash them. Want to walk the talk? Send your rants to this forum via stone tablets.

shortonoil wrote:

Doomerism is just a way of life for some people.

Doomerism? More troglodyte pig Latin New Speak? We are inspired!

Semantics games don't make you less wrong.

Semantics games don't make you less wrong.

Wrong about what? That the industry's revenues have fallen by 53%; that less than 8% of reserves being extracted are being replaced; that Capex spending has fallen by almost a $trillion dollars; that Saudi Arabia is going broke to the tune of $135 billion per year; that most of the Canadian bitumen fields are now looking like a parking lot for wayward moose; or that Venezuela is eating its cats and dogs. Which wrong did you have in mind?

that less than 8% of reserves being extracted are being replaced;

OK this is the fourth time where I have had to point out that you have your head up your backside with this claim. Produced reserves are being more than replaced according to the Ernst and Young 2016 analysis that I have quoted from before several times. Contingent resources go to 3P reserves, 3P and 2P reserves go to 1P reserves and proved non-producing go to proved producing reserves.

that Saudi Arabia is going broke to the tune of $135 billion per year

ignoring, of course, the Aramco IPO next year which will be anywhere between $1.5 and $2.5 trillion in value back into the SWF. Seems like they probably aren't too worried

that most of the Canadian bitumen fields are now looking like a parking lot for wayward moose

and magically, somehow production from Canadian oil sands continues to rise.

de-dollarization continuing . I guess the world thinks it can function without dOlla hegemony
https://www.rt.com/business/403804-russ ... ttlements/

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/11/china-w ... ollar.html
"I believe that yuan pricing of oil is coming and as soon as the Saudis move to accept it — as the Chinese will compel them to do — then the rest of the oil market will move along with them," Carl Weinberg, chief economist and managing director at High Frequency Economics, told CNBC
In recent years, several nations opposed to the dollar being the world's reserve currency have progressively sought to try and abandon it
OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia is at the crux of the petrodollar

Another nail in the USD coffin?

To the contrary, this thread is 12+ years old and the dollar has not collapsed yet. The world economy is enormous and the economic momentuum is also enormous. Speculation about sudden economic crashes and currency devaluations is rank foolishness.

dolanbaker wrote:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/11/china-w ... ollar.html
"I believe that yuan pricing of oil is coming and as soon as the Saudis move to accept it — as the Chinese will compel them to do — then the rest of the oil market will move along with them," Carl Weinberg, chief economist and managing director at High Frequency Economics, told CNBC
In recent years, several nations opposed to the dollar being the world's reserve currency have progressively sought to try and abandon it
OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia is at the crux of the petrodollar

Another nail in the USD coffin?

I wonder if the Chinese can make parts for all of that US military hardware the Saudis are so proud of.

KaiserJeep wrote:To the contrary, this thread is 12+ years old and the dollar has not collapsed yet. The world economy is enormous and the economic momentuum is also enormous. Speculation about sudden economic crashes and currency devaluations is rank foolishness.

Well, maybe not 'imminent' but, maybe, 'fast' as in 'fast crash'?

How fast can the dollar unravel? That would be an appropriate topic of discussion.

KaiserJeep wrote:...... Speculation about sudden economic crashes and currency devaluations is rank foolishness.

Yes. Rank foolishness. It's not like it ever happened before. And KJ's strong sense of exceptionalism will prevent fast crashes in the foreseeable future.

jedrider wrote:

KaiserJeep wrote:To the contrary, this thread is 12+ years old and the dollar has not collapsed yet. The world economy is enormous and the economic momentuum is also enormous. Speculation about sudden economic crashes and currency devaluations is rank foolishness.

Well, maybe not 'imminent' but, maybe, 'fast' as in 'fast crash'?

How fast can the dollar unravel? That would be an appropriate topic of discussion.

Given the reality of the foreign exchange markets, why should this cause it to anything remotely like "unravel"? It might cause it to dip somewhat: rapidly, over time, or both (mostly due to sentiment issues).

Over time, major currencies are all over the place (which is a key reason why the FX markets exist). So is this a big deal?

Will the US economy fundamentally change due to this? Of course not! Will the real world in terms of the make-up of the fundamental energy economy change because of this? Not in a meaningful way.

Will China gain some credibility and stature, as its economy becomes the largest in the world? Sure, although it's not like that trend is anything new.

If endless, unwise, debt creation, occurring over many decades, despite whether supporting economic growth makes it sustainable isn't a major issue for the dollar, this minor event (in the scheme of things) isn't even close.

GHung wrote:

KaiserJeep wrote:...... Speculation about sudden economic crashes and currency devaluations is rank foolishness.

Yes. Rank foolishness. It's not like it ever happened before. And KJ's strong sense of exceptionalism will prevent fast crashes in the foreseeable future.

And clearly perma-doomers' constant collective jabbering/speculation/FUD about them causes nothing except business for clowns like zerohedge. But carry on. Clearly it gives your ilk something to do.

My Ilk? Do you default to labeling others when you have no case? I'm not a doomer. I just call people like you on your unsupported optimism. But I guess it's alright for you to call out so-called doomers, but not OK for me to call you out.

KaiserJeep wrote:To the contrary, this thread is 12+ years old and the dollar has not collapsed yet. The world economy is enormous and the economic momentuum is also enormous. Speculation about sudden economic crashes and currency devaluations is rank foolishness.

I certainly don't believe in "sudden death" for the USD, but more like a death of a thousand cuts! After all the Roman empire (western) took 500 years or so to decline to nothing.

dolanbaker wrote:

KaiserJeep wrote:To the contrary, this thread is 12+ years old and the dollar has not collapsed yet. The world economy is enormous and the economic momentuum is also enormous. Speculation about sudden economic crashes and currency devaluations is rank foolishness.

I certainly don't believe in "sudden death" for the USD, but more like a death of a thousand cuts! After all the Roman empire (western) took 500 years or so to decline to nothing.

And that's happening, business as usual, long term. Just like happens for virtually ALL paper currencies in time, historically.

The US dollar is only worth a tiny fraction of what it was in 1900, for example.

Not that you'd ever get the fast-crash constant-doom folks to notice facts and acknowledge that.

GHung wrote:My Ilk? Do you default to labeling others when you have no case? I'm not a doomer. I just call people like you on your unsupported optimism. But I guess it's alright for you to call out so-called doomers, but not OK for me to call you out.

You're right. I'm wrong on thinking (misremembering?) that you are a doomer. I just went back and viewed a sampling of your posts. We disagree a lot (which is fine), but somehow I conflated that with you being a doomer in my (deteriorating) memory as I approach 60.

I sincerely apologize.

...

Now, as far as assuming "I have no case":


[/quote][/quote]
So by your definition, what is fast? 120 years? Or 40 years? Do I like our debt? No. Does it mean "fast crash"? It would surely seem not, given how stable Japan is (with far worse demographics, a far worse demographic outlook, and WAY more debt per capita).

Outcast_Searcher wrote:

dolanbaker wrote:

KaiserJeep wrote:To the contrary, this thread is 12+ years old and the dollar has not collapsed yet. The world economy is enormous and the economic momentuum is also enormous. Speculation about sudden economic crashes and currency devaluations is rank foolishness.

I certainly don't believe in "sudden death" for the USD, but more like a death of a thousand cuts! After all the Roman empire (western) took 500 years or so to decline to nothing.

And that's happening, business as usual, long term. Just like happens for virtually ALL paper currencies in time, historically.

The US dollar is only worth a tiny fraction of what it was in 1900, for example.

Not that you'd ever get the fast-crash constant-doom folks to notice facts and acknowledge that.

On the other hand, it's hard to get some people to admit that inflection points can be reached, or imbalances in systems can be coerced by events that cause inflections to occur. I guess some folks think graphs of what has occurred, and what is occurring, are just pretty colors.



It's clear that each unit of new debt we add is having a declining return in terms of real growth. I find arguments that it doesn't matter, or that there can't be an abrupt end to this process, to be denialism, likely born of cognitive dissonance.

One absolute truth we should be able to agree on is that shit happens. Always has. Always will.

As for Japan, they survive largely by borrowing from themselves and working almost a quarter of the $5+ trillion/day global carry trade. This, too, shall pass.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
The US dollar is only worth a tiny fraction of what it was in 1900, for example.
.

In 1900 they adopted the gold standard which pegged the dollar at $20.67 for an ounce of pure gold. The median wage at the time was $10 per fifty five hour work week.($0.18/ hr) So it took 110 hours of average work to buy an ounce of gold.
Today the median income is $55,000 a year or $27.50 per hour and with today's gold price of $1293/ troy ounce you can buy one with just 47 hours of average labor.
So the dollar is both easier to come by and you can get more for your dollars based on how hard you had to work for them.

vtsnowedin wrote:

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
The US dollar is only worth a tiny fraction of what it was in 1900, for example.
.

In 1900 they adopted the gold standard which pegged the dollar at $20.67 for an ounce of pure gold. The median wage at the time was $10 per fifty five hour work week.($0.18/ hr) So it took 110 hours of average work to buy an ounce of gold.
Today the median income is $55,000 a year or $27.50 per hour and with today's gold price of $1293/ troy ounce you can buy one with just 47 hours of average labor.
So the dollar is both easier to come by and you can get more for your dollars based on how hard you had to work for them.

$55,000 median where? It sure as heck isn’t that high around where I live. I suspect those figures might be valid in LA or NYC, but Toledo, Detroit or Cleveland are a whole different fnancial environment.