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THE Daniel Yergin Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Daniel Yergin at Davos on Bloomberg Surveillance tv show

Unread postby Peak_Yeast » Sat 24 Jan 2015, 15:48:58

haha pstar - nice chart. Well he is sorta right. It brings me back to university - first year. There was a popular girl in the class and whenever the teacher asked for the result of some calculation she would have her hand up immediately.

EVERY single time she was asked about the result she would come up with the exact opposite. I dont know how it was possible - but i tell you it happened! And it was incredibly funny too...

Yergin is not so funny, but he has the same inbred ability it seems.
"If democracy is the least bad form of government - then why dont we try it for real?"
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Re: Daniel Yergin at Davos on Bloomberg Surveillance tv show

Unread postby dashster » Sat 24 Jan 2015, 19:01:00

"and you move on to a whole series of books that say essentially, read history or you don’t know the present. "

Yergin and the Cornucopians like to try and debunk the idea of Peak Oil by citing past predictions by a variety of folks that oil will "run out" in some region or another. Past failed predictions about oil shortages will be a major part of their argument. Like someone way back when saying that there would be no oil found west of the Mississippi. But relying on history to predict the future with regard to a finite substance that depletes with usage by an ever-increasing population is probably not the right way to go. Or is it? Historically, oil wells, oil fields, oil regions, and oil countries peak. Decline rates and capping wells are consistent historical events . Oil field discoveries are historical and they peaked in the 1960's. And there is the historical makeup of the world's reserves (which Cornucopians will site as not only being many years worth of usage, but growing faster than usage). Historically it was light oil. Now it is mostly tar sands and heavy oil.

It seems like history should show people that there are problems looming, but they only focus on the parts of history that help them think everything is rosy with oil and ignore the parts that don't.
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Re: Daniel Yergin at Davos on Bloomberg Surveillance tv show

Unread postby C8 » Sat 24 Jan 2015, 21:53:39

well many PO folks called Yergin a ton of nasty names 7 years ago. I recall how Kunstler often referred to him as a tool. Anybody who went on The Oil Drum and suggested that the US could out produce the 1970's peak was laughed at or gang raped by posters while the mods looked the other way. Hubbert was seen as an infallible god and doom was guaranteed within 5 years. All kinds of authoritative looking analysis was made by people who had NO experience in the oil industry, but they produced tons of "sciencey" looking charts. PO people believed an arch druid, an actuary, an architect critic, a unemployed Russian engineer living on a boat.

The problem with the PO community was that it fell into groupthink in a very, very hard way. Anyone who suggested flaws in the official analysis became persona non grata- it was the 180 degree opposite of a true scientific community. Thus followed the rise of the PO guru's with their groupies that still exist today.

The fundamental problem with the PO community is that it does not respect real science and real skepticism- the dialogue has become a forgone conclusion looking for evidence to support it. Its a shame because the subject is actually quite fascinating.

Yergin did turn out to be right and his detractors should be learning from this- not denying it.
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Re: Daniel Yergin at Davos on Bloomberg Surveillance tv show

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 24 Jan 2015, 22:11:31

Yergin did turn out to be right and his detractors should be learning from this- not denying it.


I'm a fan of Yergin simply for his book The Prize. An amazing walk down the history of an industry I lived through, I've read it a couple of times.

That being said, he is not a scientist and does not do science as you seem to think. The basis behind the idea of peak oil is that it is a resource that is not replacing itself, it has a limited lifetime. The arguments go on and on about how long that lifetime is. The proper definition is that oil reaches its peak production and then declines after. Some have argued that because there has been several peaks, or that the peaks are controlled by factors other than supply that the theory is flawed. It isn't. There are improvements to the way we extract hydrocarbons all the time. The North Sea is a classic example of better ingenuity and a favorable tax regime creating a second peak. The shale gas phenom is an example of technology allowing us to access reservoirs that previously we could not. But no matter what the oil that has been generated is the oil that has been generated and then migrated. Yes we can get oil from shales now but where is the next place. My answer would be there isn't one. We have already extracted oil from crystalline basement rock and we have explored pretty much everywhere in the world outside of Antarctica. Unless you believe in abiotic oil which could be the most incredible bit of complete nonsense I have ever heard (I have a background in organic geochemisty) then there is no choice except that eventually production will decline unless demand declines.
Yergin gets the advantage of the broken clock...right twice a day no matter what.
That being said anyone who wants to understand the oil and gas business and how it shaped our world needs to read The Prize. It is an amazing story...in fact I think I might read it a third time.
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Re: Daniel Yergin at Davos on Bloomberg Surveillance tv show

Unread postby dashster » Sat 24 Jan 2015, 22:57:08

C8 wrote:Yergin did turn out to be right and his detractors should be learning from this- not denying it.


Yergin and the mainstream agencies and companies 10 years ago painted a bright future for oil production. Steady increases out to 2030 with prices remaining in their historical low range. Production has not continued upwards as predicted and caused prices to plateau at the highest level (adjusted for inflation) ever. In order for Yergin to be right we need to maintain prices at or below where we are now for the next 15 years. Even Yergin knows that is not gonna happen as he said these prices won't sustain production.
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Re: Daniel Yergin at Davos on Bloomberg Surveillance tv show

Unread postby shallow sand » Sat 24 Jan 2015, 23:33:47

The Prize is a great book.

It seems like once a person forms an opinion, he or she is loathe to change it, no matter what takes place as time goes on. This seems very true with the future of oil.

I do think it is noteworthy when people who have a strong opinion, such as Yergin, admit what he did in that the current price cannot sustain production for any period of time. Kind of like when Stephen Schork says the current price of oil has entered the, "stupid zone".
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Re: Daniel Yergin at Davos on Bloomberg Surveillance tv show

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sat 31 Jan 2015, 23:55:37

As Michael Ruppert once said, Daniel Yergin is a liar and a shill for big oil companies. He can't be trusted at all.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
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Re: Daniel Yergin at Davos on Bloomberg Surveillance tv show

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 01 Feb 2015, 05:42:18

DesuMaiden wrote:As Michael Ruppert once said, Daniel Yergin is a liar and a shill for big oil companies. He can't be trusted at all.


...before Michael became so disenchanted with the World's failure to end upon schedule that he killed himself. I used to believe what the man said myself.

The refrain of Doom, Doom, Doom around here is pretty seductive, until you notice that things are not actually getting Apocalyptic in any meaningful sense, anytime soon.

Then you note that 90+% of the world population is perpetuating BAU, most without even realizing that this is so.

Your Great Grandkids might want to worry, though. Or maybe not.
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Re: Daniel Yergin at Davos on Bloomberg Surveillance tv show

Unread postby Withnail » Sun 01 Feb 2015, 06:39:32

When the dust settles I think we'll see that the shale oil boom caused a lot of damage not only to itself but also to other oil producing areas like the UK's North Sea as prices hurtled downwards.

Lots of layoffs at the moment.

So then you're in a position of having to rebuild your skills base when prices eventually start to recover.
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Re: Daniel Yergin at Davos on Bloomberg Surveillance tv show

Unread postby Quinny » Sun 01 Feb 2015, 07:04:08

Live, Love, Learn, Leave Legacy.....oh and have a Laugh while you're doing it!
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Re: Daniel Yergin at Davos on Bloomberg Surveillance tv show

Unread postby Withnail » Sun 01 Feb 2015, 09:49:46



And will Joe Public really see much benefit from the collapse in oil prices?

I doubt it.
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Re: THE Daniel Yergin Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 28 Dec 2016, 14:16:08

Despite the fact that so many in the Peak Oil community discount everything he says it sounds as if Mr. Yergin has the ear of the President Elect and will have at least a temporary period of influence. Until or unless he loses that ear Daniel Yergin will be a person of influence for the next year or years and we should review what it is he is likely to advise.

President-elect Donald Trump, whose populist economic message helped carry him to the White House, on Friday named a group of elite business leaders to an economic advisory forum.

The group will include the former chief executive of General Electric, the leader of Boston Consulting Group, and Daniel Yergin, founder of Cambridge Energy Research Associates whose history of the oil business won him the Pulitzer Prize.

The President’s Strategic and Policy Forum will provide input on “how government policy impacts economic growth, job creation, and productivity,” according to a statement from the New York investment firm Blackstone, whose founder and chief executive, Stephen Schwarzman, will chair the 16-person council.

Other participants will include:

■ Yergin, whose company was acquired in 2004 by IHS Energy, which later merged with London-based Markit. Yergin is a vice chairman with IHS Markit.

A Massachusetts native, Welch is an ardent Republican who supported Trump ahead of the election. But he called on Twitter for the party to replace Trump after a 2005 video surfaced in which Trump bragged about kissing and groping women without consent. Welch ran General Electric, which moved from Connecticut to Boston this year, between 1981 and 2001.

Barra, meanwhile, had been considered as a potential vice presidential choice for Trump’s Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, according to internal campaign emails that were made public by Wikileaks.

And Lesser, who lives in New York but whose global consulting firm is based in Boston, donated to the Clinton campaign, according to federal election records.

President Barack Obama has his own Council on Jobs and Competitiveness made up of business leaders who provide him with economic advice. That panel has been chaired by Welch’s successor at General Electric, Jeff Immelt.

Trump’s forum will meet for the first time in early February, shortly after his inauguration. It will meet with Trump “frequently,” the statement said.

Adam Vaccaro can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at @adamtvaccaro.


https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/20 ... story.html
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Re: THE Daniel Yergin Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 28 Dec 2016, 15:26:39

pstarr wrote:Yergin almost single-handedly destroyed the peak oil message.


Sort of gives you an idea of the value of a thing, if one informed individual can see through all the distractions and smoke and mirrors, and is able to then explain it to others.

And I'm not even sure what message you are referring to? ON NOES!! WEEZ ALL GONNA DIE! Or the more low key kind, detailing 50% annual inflation, reinstitution of the draft, fedghettos, no more oil to run the tractors and accompanying food shortages, you know, all the other things that didn't happen after oil peaked a decade ago now?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Daniel Yergin Thread (merged)

Unread postby hvacman » Wed 28 Dec 2016, 16:52:49

■ Mary Barra, chief executive of General Motors;


Yergin, meh, but Barra, yeah!

That is the most interesting selection for Trump's executive council from my perspective. The post-bankruptcy GM has found creative ways to blend their international supply sources and plants with their domestic production facilities to create a dynamic, flexible global corporation that both maximizes access to global free-trade for both production and sales and does everything possible to hang on to US jobs. She and a lot of her executive team are 2nd or 3rd-generation GM-lifers and understand the "outmoded" idea of two-way loyalty between a corporation and their employees. GM also is the largest mainstream automotive plug-in EV manufacturer and re-conceived their entire attitude of automotive engineering to take full advantage of new electrification opportunities in their drive trains. With the Chevy Bolt (which she personally salvaged from cancellation in an emergency meeting in her early days as CEO), GM beat Tesla to the first for-retail-sale 200+ mile affordable EV and have poured $billions into their electrification development program.

Apparently, she was considered as a possible DEM VP candidate for Clinton....
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Dan Yergin on why Venezuela could cause a ‘big shock’ to the

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 19:22:16


If the global oil market suddenly loses Venezuela's 2 million barrels of daily oil production, it would be "a big shock to the system," according to Dan Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. "It would certainly be a very tight market, because of course you already have production restraints by OPEC and non-OPEC," Yergin told CNBC at the Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference on Tuesday. Oil markets are increasingly worried over potential supply constraints as the economic turmoil in Venezuela deepens. Production in Venezuela has been falling and the economic difficulties have affected further investments in the sector. As the economic situation deteriorates, production might continue to fall from its maximum potential, thus limiting the availability in the market. Venezuela, an OPEC nation and one of the biggest oil producers in the world, has conducted debt renegotiations with foreign investors since Monday.


Dan Yergin on why Venezuela could cause a ‘big shock’ to the markets
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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