Just joined today

[Upstream Lady]

Hi,

I have worked in the oil industry for fifteen years – all over the world from Sakhalin to the Amazon. One of the questions I am frequently asked is – when will the oil run out?

Most people are surprised to hear my reply – NEVER. And I add – but it’s going to get very very expensive.

The oil companies that I have worked for believe in Peak Oil whatever they may say in public.They are all working hard to increase the discovery and production rates. The improvement in technology is very impressive and yet the discovery to consumption ratio gets worse every year.

It’s time to stop wasting this incredible resource.

Question - How do I edit my profile?

[pup55]

Welcome, Upstream Lady;

We have a special appreciation for people that are in this industry being participants in PO.com, and are really interested in your comments.

I am not sure about the editing function myself....

[jdmartin]

Welcome to the board! I also enjoy seeing posts from people working in the industry.

As to profile editing, when you're logged in you'll see your name in the top left hand corner. Click on "user panel" under "members" on the left hand side, and you'll see a menu on the left that allows you to click "profile" where you can edit.

[Aaron]

Hi,


Question - How do I edit my profile?

http://peakoil.com/forums/ucp.php

[MD]

...

Most people are surprised to hear my reply – NEVER. And I add – but it’s going to get very very expensive.

...

And as a result, we'll have to change our usage patterns.

Welcome!

[vision-master]

Hi,

I have worked in the oil industry for fifteen years – all over the world from Sakhalin to the Amazon. One of the questions I am frequently asked is – when will the oil run out?

Most people are surprised to hear my reply – NEVER. And I add – but it’s going to get very very expensive.

The oil companies that I have worked for believe in Peak Oil whatever they may say in public.They are all working hard to increase the discovery and production rates. The improvement in technology is very impressive and yet the discovery to consumption ratio gets worse every year.

It’s time to stop wasting this incredible resource.

Question - How do I edit my profile?

Pleaze keep us layman informed.

[pstarr]

Hi,

I have worked in the oil industry for fifteen years – all over the world from Sakhalin to the Amazon. One of the questions I am frequently asked is – when will the oil run out?

Most people are surprised to hear my reply – NEVER. And I add – but it’s going to get very very expensive.

The oil companies that I have worked for believe in Peak Oil whatever they may say in public.They are all working hard to increase the discovery and production rates. The improvement in technology is very impressive and yet the discovery to consumption ratio gets worse every year.

It’s time to stop wasting this incredible resource.

Question - How do I edit my profile?

Pleaze keep us layman informed.

Ah.

When you're logged in you'll see your name in the top left hand corner. Click on "user panel" under "members" on the left hand side, and you'll see a menu on the left that allows you to click "profile" where you can edit.

[Arthur75]

The oil companies that I have worked for believe in Peak Oil whatever they may say in public.They are all working hard to increase the discovery and production rates. The improvement in technology is very impressive and yet the discovery to consumption ratio gets worse every year.

Welcome aboard ! (I'm myself a newbie here)

About above how would you describe the "general feeling" about it, how is it adressed in informal discussions at lunch or coffee machine for instance (if adressed at all), is it like a general fatality that nobody wants to really talk about ? seen as still years ahead ? some sense of panic starting ? people knowing wanting to get out, and others just ignoring it ?

[RedStateGreen]

Welcome!

[Upstream Lady]

The oil companies that I have worked for believe in Peak Oil whatever they may say in public.They are all working hard to increase the discovery and production rates. The improvement in technology is very impressive and yet the discovery to consumption ratio gets worse every year.

Welcome aboard ! (I'm myself a newbie here)

About above how would you describe the "general feeling" about it, how is it adressed in informal discussions at lunch or coffee machine for instance (if adressed at all), is it like a general fatality that nobody wants to really talk about ? seen as still years ahead ? some sense of panic starting ? people knowing wanting to get out, and others just ignoring it ?

I would say that the general feelings in the oil industry regarding Peak Oil are much the same as they are outside the industry. Most people are just ignoring the problem. Any suggestion that the future will be significantly different from the present is not on the radar.

Like many industries, the vast majority of people working in the oil industry see only a tiny part of the whole exploration, production and distribution process. One would expect workers in the exploration side to be more aware that discovery and production is getting increasingly more difficult. However, the geophysist sees only the rock structure; the driller knows when oil is found but not how much or its quality; the reservoir engineer can estimate how much oil there is but has no knowledge of how a find will be turned into production. The ability to find potential oil traps and to exploit existing reservoirs is a hundred fold better than it was twenty years ago. This has created a spirit of optimism in the explorationists. Tremendous advances have come in the last two decades. The days when a geologist tapped away at the rocks and declared a significant discovery are long gone. Extremely sophisticated remote sensing and modeling techniques have replaced it. The improved ability to find more in existing formations has meant that oil production has been keeping pace with consumption. However, recent data shows that despite a recession consumption now exceeds production. The low hanging fruit has been plucked. There is no easily accessible oil left. It’s going to start to get very expensive to produce oil. The peak is already in the rear view mirror!

[TheDude]

Hi ya Upstream Lady,

Glad you're on board, I still primarily take an interest in the nuts-and-bolts of energy issues and it's good to have people actually working in the industry share their knowledge. Your comments about the ratio of dry holes in drilling echoes similar comments we've heard from other people in the know, and matches up with what EIA data for that matter.

You should have a look at what's been posted in Peak Oil Studies & Energy Reports, undoubtedly you'll find something novel in there. The importance of giant fields always surprises people as well, and there was a recent excellent study on Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world.

[Maddog78]

She lasted a long time.
Probably got laid off and cut her internet provider.
Such is life in the oil business at the present.

[TheDude]

Does it seem like the rate of layoffs is increasing, maddog? Do you think this will be a major factor in the industry's ability to increase supply to meet demand post-recession?

[Maddog78]

I wouldn't say it is increasing. March through till now, the industry was cutting pretty heavily.
I would also say we are not done yet though. There will likely be more layoffs but not at the rate there was earlier this year.

I also think it will be a very important factor in ramping up again for post recession demand.
We saw the same thing happen after the slump of '99 when they wanted to ramp up again starting in around '04 or so.
You could not hire people without poaching them away from other cos. with large raises and such.
Other people were promoted to fill slots but really didn't have the experience or knowledge to be in those positions.
This time I think it will be even worse since many were older and will just say the hell with it and retire instead of being enticed back to the business. A lot of younger people will also be disillusioned and think why should I come back into it when I might get laid off again after a 2 yr. boom.
Money, of course, will get some people back or into it so it may be very expensive at the end of the day for the companies to ramp up. It happened in the oil sands in Canada when things were booming. Just about any warm body getting off the bus in Ft. McMurray was being offered a $35/hr. job. Hard to keep costs down in a scenario like that.

[TheDude]

Thanks for the reply, mad. One guy at theoildrum.com was keeping tabs on the health of the industry by noting the starting salary at 7-11s in Fort McMurray. What they're paying the roughnecks was important, but he figured you look at the truly marginal jobs to detect the sea changes.

[Maddog78]

I'd agree with that.
I remember hearing about the Tim Horton's up there. (A Canadian coffee and donut chain all across Canada)
They were supposed to be open 24 hrs. but only had staff to open during the rush hours.
The wages were something crazy, I think around $15/hr. but I don't remember exactly.
They were also paying a bonus if you lasted 3 mos., again I can't remember exactly but I think it was around 2 or 3 thousand.
I doubt it is that way now.
Sounds like the guy at oildrum would know.

[CynthiaPettiford]

I couldn't agree with you more. Oil takes a long time to exist and we're using it quicker than it's being made. In the end the price will go up so much that only the rich will be able to use it. We need to slow down with our oil consumption a lot. But the fact is most people wont.

[Upstream Lady]

She lasted a long time.
Probably got laid off and cut her internet provider.
Such is life in the oil business at the present.

I'm back - I was working in ME and got paranoid about the company I was working for. I learnt that they were monitoring all internet traffic and reading private emails!

[papa moose]

I would say that the general feelings in the oil industry regarding Peak Oil are much the same as they are outside the industry. Most people are just ignoring the problem. Any suggestion that the future will be significantly different from the present is not on the radar.

Welcome back, how do you feel about your above statement?

I've been 18 months now on an upstream project for Chevron and haven't heard PO mentioned once, obviously Chevron knows what's what, but in general employees here are as clueless as anywhere else.
The one manager i felt comfortable broaching the subject with in convestaion pooh poohed the idea because "there are 100s of years of oil left", which is basically what geology lecturers were telling us twenty years ago and was hardly believeable then.