Peak Oil News and Message Boards

This year, 2005, may well turn out to be the peak year for global oil production. In the seasonally strong fourth quarter, demand is expected to be 86.5 million barrels per day – that’s 4 million barrels per day higher than current demand in the second quarter. Where this extra production is supposed to come from is leaving many of us scratching our heads. Be that as it may, the moment of reckoning is quickly approaching.

http://321energy.com/editorials/sprott/ ... 70505.html

Good article, but for me the most interesting thing was the author.


"Eric Sprott, CA & Sasha Solunac, CFA
Sprott Asset Management

July 5th, 2005

Sprott Asset Management Inc. is a Toronto based private investment company with over US$1.9 billion in assets under management primarily for institutions, pension plans, endowments and high net worth individuals. "

I wonder how open they are about PO to people who want them to manage their investments?
Carla

If the patterns on oil price fluctuations hold up, we may be off into the lower mid $60 (62-63) range this week. A strong drop last week is already moving equally strong back up again. How long until this affects gasoline prices is one thing I wonder about. What's keeping prices of gas steady?

Its not steady in Australia. It can vary as much as 15cents in a day.

In Poland gasoline prices are not steady. Rising

The Sprott people are keeping a pulse on the situation so as to make sure they are not behind on warning of a posibble problem ahead. That means staying on top of the situation in the eyes of your clients.

More and more experts (executives of oilfield services companies like Schlumberger and Baker Hughes for example) are now saying publicly that the average decline rate of the world’s oil wells is 8%! – a shockingly high hurdle to overcome with new production.

This is the worst news i've ever read reagarding peak oil. 8% decline means hard landing whatever governments will do. I don't even consider houses bubble, pharaonic debts or the fact that most of the new oil to come will get heavier and heavier...

mind you BP's production is up!
see
http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArtic ... -BP-DC.XML
so the prises will doubtless go down again.
will they?

KevO wrote:mind you BP's production is up!
see
http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArtic ... -BP-DC.XML
so the prises will doubtless go down again.
will they?

It will have no significant impact on prices I think. Demand is growing rapidly and the alleged BP oil production increase is readily aborbed by existing depletion rates as per Chris Skrebowsky.

More and more experts (executives of oilfield services companies like Schlumberger and Baker Hughes for example) are now saying publicly that the average decline rate of the world’s oil wells is 8%! – a shockingly high hurdle to overcome with new production.

If you look at the production of the nations in decline and compare the 2003 and 2004 figure you get an average of -4.9%.(excluding the US)

13.9 mpd in 2004
14.7 mpd in 2003
Decline rate = -4.9%

If you include the US figures , then the average decline rate is -3.9%.

21.2 mpd
22.0 mpd
Decline rate = -3.9%

Where does the 8% figure come from?

PB

Sys1

Where did you see Schlumberger state the decline rate is 8%?