Assuming that things don't change for the better in the very near future, I'm betting more on an apocalypse this year, which I fear is something our present born-again leader is all too comfortable with.
Just as the estimated national or global oil reserves have been lies, so to are the long range viabilities of the US and global economies -- all based on the assumption that oil is plentiful now and into the foreseeable future. Economic competition for that oil is now heating up, leading to, it would seem, a military competition for the same. The goodwill, cooperation and institutions that have rather successfully managed our peace and prosperity in recent years are being dismantled at breakneck speed right before our eyes. Examples: Geneva Conventions, US Constitution, generally-accepted principles of accounting, accountability and the serving of public interest, social security, war as a last resort, and even the pretense that words like "patriotism", "democracy", and terms like "support our troops" still have real meaning. And I'll even throw in "the UN" for contentiousness.
Personally, I think it worth the effort to somehow instill humility into all who presently live in excessive material comfort, allowing us to power down and still live well, but largely saying good-bye to reckless consumption. But it's mostly the US government and the heads of the foreign central banks who control the worldwide US dollar hegemony, and therefore it is they who largely dictate the tempo of consumption worldwide. And many of these PTB are criminal and worthy of jail time, should the rest of the world ever get the wherewithal to seek them out and punish them for their crimes (e.g., Iraq War) against humanity.
The selfish question for Bush Inc. then becomes, simply, how do we hold on to power such that we, and our children, can go on living without humiliation or incarceration? Where the clear answer, from one perspective, is to crash the Republic, to institute such chaos and suffering that the people then must beg for the present government to step into their lives to save them. People thus would surrender their freedoms in exchange for food. And many recipients of the government's largesse would then gladly aid the new, Orwellian order if it meant more perks for them; like ratting out the next-door neighbors for crimethink or some such to increase their own heating allotment. It's historically demonstrable human nature.
America and its denizens are, by just about any measure, broke. Or, worse than that, in debt. We build or manufacture almost nothing that will have value in the new world we must live in, and we are in great need of other countries to provide the money and natural resources required to maintain our doomed excessive standard of living. Given where we are and where we appear to be going, I'd say we are like an 800-pound gorilla in need of a tranquilizer dart. I predict the moment it would appear to others that we are irredeemable, the world will proceed to cut and run from us, having decided beforehand how to shoulder and distribute the economic burdens from so doing.
A few ideas on how Bush Inc. could bring or are bringing about the hard times:
1) As the result of a plunge in dollar confidence -- largely under their control -- nobody will want to hold US bonds anymore. Instantly, we could no longer continue the arrangement of paying for our homes or cars or to afford the cost of driving them for that matter. All this could lead to a huge disruption, dislocation, questioning of the American-way-of-life, pandemonium, martial law crackdown (but whose side would the troops really be on? Hmmm..)
2) Because the present admin doesn't particularly like ordinary Americans, in the same way they apparently didn't like ordinary Californians a few years ago during that Enron/Energy Taskforce-inspired electricity crisis, a combination of arrogance, ineptitude and, yes, supply-destructive collusion would cause fuel/natural gas shortages, intended to create the same havoc, as above.
By the way, if this "conspiracy theory" sounds wacky to you, ask yourself why the administration remains silent on the idea of voluntarily cutting back on unnecessary or outright wasteful consumption (these guys apparently don't mitigate damages - they exacerbate them!) If Americans joined together on the conservation front, we'd buy ourselves some time to begin transitioning away from this crisis, and the rest of the world would also like us more and even join in with our efforts. But this administration only wants us to unite in hating "evil" leaders of foreign nations who refuse to do our exact bidding, or have the temerity not to die during one of our friendly pro-democracy coup attempts
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3) We could also attack such an oil-rich nation, as mentioned in scenario #2, causing a domino effect leading to scenario #1. Just install Bolton into the UN, and watch as the admin then proceeds to make its best effort, amidst near-universal condemnation, to carry out such a plan.
Bottom line, the writing is on the wall, at least as long as the Republicans remain in power, that America is growing increasingly-toxic, both to itself and to the rest of the world. While the rest of the world wants and to some extent *needs* America to stick around, the price tag for allowing us to continue prancing around the global stage is getting far too dear.
America, it seems, can do little but to fall into the abyss, or, through a fluke of military genius, steal some other country or region's oil (while killing a lot of their people at the same time), or *soon* get itself some new constitutionally-provided leadership that will put the rest of the world at ease.
Heh. Long post.
The foregoing, all hypothetically-speaking, of course.