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Is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas production

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas production

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 13:45:05


Controversial research by the University of Edinburgh suggests UK oil and gas industries are entering the last decade of production. Julian Turner talks to the author of the report, Prof. Roy Thompson, about resource depletion, hard data vs industry optimism, and the transition to the clean economy. The Edinburgh Geological Society was formed in 1834 with the aim of stimulating public interest in geology. Issue 62 of its magazine, The Edinburgh Geologist, published in October, certainly did that. It contained a report by Edinburgh University that predicted the UK’s oil and gas reserves could run out in as little as a decade, that fracking is not viable in Scotland and barely feasible in the UK thanks to a dearth of suitable geology, and that the UK will soon have to import all its oil and gas. Professor Roy Thompson of Edinburgh University’s School


Twilight years: is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas production?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas produc

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 13:58:05

pstarr wrote:This in spite of rockdoc's obsessive insistence that UK will fract it's shale. That won't happen. I kept telling him you can't ran shale-oil trains through the Chunnel. The French would never stand for it, because they run their perfume that way. Nor will the UK import oil. There is no excess, even Norway is running down.


You wouldn't even know about the shale if the US hadn't rearranged the global business model around pricing it..using source rock production.

And this title is a crock, because it does ignore the Bowland. The UK can probably do the same thing the US did, so, like I said, the conclusion in the title is a crock. The UK might being entering its last decade.....IF THAT IS WHAT IT DECIDES TO DO....because it can certainly choose to do something else.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas produc

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 01 Jan 2018, 21:13:53

The North Sea is seriously depleated at this point because of the pumpas fast as you can. If they had limited exploitation to internal consumption rate, as any industrialized power could have in the 1990’s they would just now be starting to i port again and would have decades of cushion to live on.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: Is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas produc

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 09 Jul 2018, 08:46:29

Natural gas is vital to the UK economy. During the boom in the 1990's when the North Sea was robustly growing the vast quantities of associated gas lead to some very foolish decisions about shutting down older nuclear plants and all the coal plants and replacing them with natural gas, some for baseload and some for peaking.

Then the UK area of the North Sea peaked out because they had been drilling as fast and as hard as they could instead of at a more measured pace. As a consequence their associated gas fell off a cliff and their pure gas wells were not able to make up the shortfall. Now the UK has to import gas from the continent through the same pipelines they originally built to export gas when they had an abundant supply.

The incentive to develop tight gas formations is tremendous in the UK and I am sort of surprised they held out for six years before granting permission once again in the last couple years. There is also a big push in the background for underground coal gasification. That has even more incentive because it eliminates three of the largest complaints about coal burning. Those complaints being mining waste, coal ash, and danger to miners. Underground coal gasification goes first after the deepest and least accessible by standard means coal beds.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas produc

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 09 Jul 2018, 12:58:34

Are we REALLY going to pretend that economics, re oil prices won't affect oil fracking in places like Europe where, thus far, they've declined to do it?

Because, I think if the cost of oil gets high enough due to supply/demand factors such as the wails about not enough replacement oil continuing even if oil climbs to, say, $150 or so on a sustained basis -- then governments will be a lot more enticed (or even compelled) by the revenue streams they're likely to get from allowing such oil fracking. And at such prices (or maybe much higher), it's not like the oilcos can't afford to spend a few bucks a barrel on extra environmental / cleanup operations, now is it?

Unless oil prices remain relatively low over time due to supply being able to meet demand overall, the frackable oil will be fracked. The main issue is what prices will be required. (And that might well hinge on overall economic and demographic conditions, of course. Ironically, the expenses from AGW expenses could well help feed the demand for such revenue.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas produc

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 09 Jul 2018, 19:16:48

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Are we REALLY going to pretend that economics, re oil prices won't affect oil fracking in places like Europe where, thus far, they've declined to do it?

Because, I think if the cost of oil gets high enough due to supply/demand factors such as the wails about not enough replacement oil continuing even if oil climbs to, say, $150 or so on a sustained basis -- then governments will be a lot more enticed (or even compelled) by the revenue streams they're likely to get from allowing such oil fracking. And at such prices (or maybe much higher), it's not like the oilcos can't afford to spend a few bucks a barrel on extra environmental / cleanup operations, now is it?

Unless oil prices remain relatively low over time due to supply being able to meet demand overall, the frackable oil will be fracked. The main issue is what prices will be required. (And that might well hinge on overall economic and demographic conditions, of course. Ironically, the expenses from AGW expenses could well help feed the demand for such revenue.)


That is exactly why I took the pragmatic position back in 2005 that all National Parks and ANWAR should be explored for oil ASAP so that if resources were discovered they would be extracted while environmental concerns were still taken into account. It has always been my position that when prices get high enough those areas will be explored, but if people are desperate for supply due to peak oil the environmental controls will be 'set aside' or 'suspended for the duration of the emergency' or other lawyer words. Those words effectively mean to heck with the environment we need that petroleum badly enough to say 'too bad so sad' to anything we make extinct in the process.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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