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THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

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THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 17 May 2017, 15:34:28

Pennsylvania DEP just released March production numbers the other day.
Big evolution in completions is obvious as 20/30 MMcfd flow rates for weeks (months?) are becoming routine.
5 well pad from Cabot, the King pad, has produced over 22 Bcf in less than 8 months online.
A new outfit, Travis Peak, just brought online it's very first well, a Utica up in Tioga county.
Online 21 days and over 258,000 MMcf already.
Shell has been developing Utica wells in Tioga for a few years now and only recently seems to produce consistent high producers.
A 3 well pad - the Gee - has been online under 5 months with the wells producing near 2 Bcf each.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sat 20 May 2017, 13:18:56

Just reading up a bit on the - mostly new - phenomena of shipping liquefied ethane from US ports ( Morgan's Point and Marcus Hook).

Indian, European and Chinese companies have gone from zero to big-time bokoo capacity by building mini fleets of new, purposefully built ethane carriers to fuel their crackers.
All this seems to have happened in the blink of an eye, time wise, and bodes well for the high btu gas coming out of the shale areas.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 20 May 2017, 13:30:53

Coffee - I actually noticed that some time ago an posted a short note here. That's when I discovered much (maybe most) "LNG" shipped from the east coast was ethane and not methane. And it wasn't being imported for heating but for the manufacturing industry. Maybe tonight I'll be able to research the global context. As I suspect many who see LNG automatically think of home heating/power generation by methane. I had been until I discovered who some of the Brit LNG importers were and what they were doing with it.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sat 20 May 2017, 14:03:36

Rock
I googled 'ethane shipping india marcus hook' and a bunch of recent, highly informative articles popped up.
You mention Europe as a destination.
The 8 ship Dragon fleet, capacity 27,000 m3, is in service, but the 6 ship, 87,000 m3 LEC ships are now, apparently, also on the water and primarily supplying a brand new, huge cracker in India.
This is amazing capacity that has been put in place in a very short amount of time.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 20 May 2017, 22:22:59

Coffee - Yes, a lot has been going on under the radar. Found this from last November:

In 2016, chemical companies built navies.

"European chemical makers Ineos and Borealis have already christened ships that will carry ethane from the U.S. to their ethylene crackers in Europe. India’s Reliance Industries is taking delivery on a fleet of six so-called very large ethane carriers, which will be the biggest ships of their kind in the world, each with nearly 90,000 m3 of storage capacity.

The shale revolution has driven down U.S. natural gas prices. Today, on an energy content basis, natural gas is only one-third the price of oil. And a lot more ethane is being produced than the current stable of U.S. ethylene crackers can consume. Most of the excess is being left in natural gas and burned as fuel. The U.S. chemical industry has about a dozen ethylene projects in the works to gobble up a good chunk of the excess ethane. Foreign chemical makers want the rest."

{Perhaps you noticed my posts about $50 BILLION in refinery upgrades going on withing a 20 mile radius of where I'm typing. Every time I leave the house I see the 6 giant columns ExxonMobil is building on the other side of the highway. Much of that is going into ethane crackers. As this arrival points out a lot of valuable ethane is being pissed away by burning it with methane}

"Keefer Douglas, director of natural gas liquids research at IHS Markit, says U.S. crackers currently consume 21 million metric tons of ethane per year. By 2022, that number is projected to be 37 million metric tons. Another 8 million metric tons will be exported, much of it along the shipping routes and pipelines shown here. By then, the market will be balanced. “Given our outlook for U.S. oil and gas production, there’s enough ethane to meet the current slate of planned crackers plus the current slate of export contracts, but not much beyond that,” Douglas says"

And for those who don't understand the importance of ethane in the global economy:

Ethane is used in the production of ethylene for making plastics, anti-freeze and detergents; it's a ripening agent for foods, a refrigerant, a substance in producing welding gas and a primary ingredient in mustard gas. Ethane is a component in the natural gas methane and is removed by cryogenic liquefaction.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby taw » Sun 21 May 2017, 21:38:28

Sunday nights I scan Rockman's comments to get educated. Its sorta like PBS news hour, with bonus nuggets like we won't be running out of mustard gas.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 21 May 2017, 22:02:58

taw - Still some around if you know where to look:

In 2014, a collection of 200 bombs were found on the boundary between the Flemish villages of Passendale and Moorslede. The majority of the bombs were filled with mustard agent. The bombs are a leftover from the German army and were meant to be used in the Battle of Passchendale in World War I. It was the largest collection of chemical weapons ever found in Belgium.

But no point in learning how to make a stockpile mustard gas at home: probably many here can produce an even nastier chemical weapon in their kitchen tonight:

There are two cleaning products in particular that can be extremely lethal when mixed, bleach and ammonia. When these two cleaners are mixed together they produce a lethal chlorine gas. Products that contain bleach (Clorox, toilet bowl cleaners) or ammonia (Windex, window cleaners) as part of its composition are obviously included, but sometimes overlooked.

When these chemicals are used on their own and the directions are followed, the most common result is a clean surface. However, if these two chemicals are mixed together the outcome could be potentially deadly. When ammonia and bleach are mixed together, the bleach breaks down into hydrochloric acid. The hydrochloric acid then reacts with the ammonia to produce chloramine vapours. These vapours are extremely toxic and can be fatal if inhaled.

This combination is so nasty and deadly that this chlorine gas was used as a chemical weapon during World War 1 & 2 by Germany.

And next Sunday night I'll teach y'all how you can make a landmine in 2 minutes that's capable of taking a foot. All you'll need is a 12 gauge shotgun shell and a $1 mousetrap. LOL.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 25 May 2017, 11:44:52

Art Berman's latest article has a graph that shows US conventional nat gas declining by 3.2 bcf/d annually. With that decline rate the conventional nat gas production will fall to zero by 2025 and the US will then be entirely dependent on shale gas.

Art Berman believes that shale gas will peak and start to decline within the coming years, if true then the US is heading for the rocks. The Financial Crisis of 2008 might just have been a warning of what is about to come.

There, some doom porn. Peak gas is after all just fake news.

US conventional nat gas peaked in 2008. US coal peaked in 2008. Shale gas accounts for two thirds of US gas production today.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 25 May 2017, 12:50:18

Speaking of peaking NG from the shales the production in PA may be at or close to that point. And it has nothing to do with geology. Right now it's all about politics...but not in PA...in the state of New York.

Severe shortages of pipeline capacity to move NG to end users

One critical expansion would be the Constitution Pipeline designed to haul PA shale production to New York. New York which is the largest consumer of the fuel oil (aka diesel) burned in the NE. The NE where 85% (3.5 BILLION gallons/year) of all such consumption in the nation occurs.

Current NY citygate NG price is $10/mcf. Compare that to the peak price of $25/mcf occurring not that long ago in 2008. But, at the moment, the governor doesn't appear very interested in securing more long term (and potentially cheaper) NG supplies:

"Constitution Committed to Building Federally Approved Pipeline

Despite the New York Department of Environmental Conservation’s unprecedented decision {to deny permits} on April 22, 2016, Constitution Pipeline’s sponsors remain committed to building this energy infrastructure project, which will create an important connection between consumers and reliable supplies."

What some in NY are saying:

Wall Street Journal: “Behold Mr. Cuomo’s economic growth strategy: Destroy private high-paying energy and manufacturing jobs. Then create government programs that soak state taxpayers to compensate the victims and subsidize his politically favored industries.”

NY Post: “Is Gov. Cuomo trying to kill the upstate economy — or is he just so desperate to suck up to enviro-nuts that he doesn’t care what happens to that region?”

Mayor of Sydney, NY: “I’m very disappointed. It would have been a boost for us economically. Norwich, Oneonta and Walton all have gas. This would have helped our village residents, it would have helped Amphenol and it would have helped our schools.”

Maybe Governor Cuomo has a plan to import LNG is supplies run short during a cold snap when pipeline NG can't meet demand. That's what a Boston utility had to do in w past winter. Hmm, on second thought...from Oct 2015:

"Gov. Andrew Cuomo yesterday effectively killed a proposal to build an LNG import terminal off the coasts of Sandy Hook and Long Beach, NY. By vetoing the $600 million proposal by Liberty Natural Gas to develop an LNG import facility 28 miles off Sandy Hook and 18 miles off Long Island, the Democratic governor handed a huge victory to environmentalists, fishermen, and others who fought the proposal over the past seven years."

I wonder how many of those "environmentalists, fishermen, and others" burn fuel oil in there homes? But don't read the Rockman wrong: he and the rest of us here in Texas fully support the governor's actions: anything that can allow us to sell our NG to NY consumers at a higher price is great. LOL.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 25 May 2017, 15:27:50

Yoshua wrote:Art Berman's latest article has a graph that shows US conventional nat gas declining by 3.2 bcf/d annually. With that decline rate the conventional nat gas production will fall to zero by 2025 and the US will then be entirely dependent on shale gas.


Art Berman doesn't know what "conventional" gas is any more than he knows about the economics of light tight oil.

Yoshua wrote:Art Berman believes that shale gas will peak and start to decline within the coming years, if true then the US is heading for the rocks. The Financial Crisis of 2008 might just have been a warning of what is about to come.


Art Berman is a peak oiler who doesn't know what the minimum OpX is on a Barnett well, and has already claimed that the US was headed for crisis 6 years ago...right in the middle of some of the fastest growing oil and gas production in the countries history.

How is this for an idea...find someone who hasn't gotten it wrong about every time they proclaimed a disaster or peak or whatnot, and use them for a source? Lest people decide that you can't even bothered to pick one worth paying any attention whatsoever to.

Yoshua wrote:There, some doom porn. Peak gas is after all just fake news.


Well, it has been the other times Art was involved, do you have any REAL reference that can explain it, rather than just those who always get it wrong?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 25 May 2017, 21:18:09

yoshua - There's a great deal of NG (conventional and unconventional) left to develop in the US. But not so much at the current price. In fact, I'm surprised we've done as well as we have with the Marcellus Shale during this relatively low price period.

When the Rockman started his current company almost 8 years ago we spent $230 million drilling for deep NG in S Louisiana. But when prices fell be low $5/MCF we dropped the NG program. And don't mean we cut back: we have drilled one NG prospect since.

Look at the NG price history:

https://inflationdata.com/articles/infl ... as-prices/

Starting around 2004 we went thru an unusually high price period. And now that has ended. But look at the many years prior to the price boom when prices were as low or lower then they are now. And the US economy (and much of the world's economy) is becoming more dependent on NG. It seems obvious that prices will increase significantly in the future.

When it does many tens of thousands of currently uneconomical NG wells will be drilled.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Thu 25 May 2017, 21:52:39

Rock
In so many ways the natgas pipeline situation in New York and New England is both heartbreaking and infuriating.
That quote above about Amphenol refers to one of the Bigger private sector employers in that part of the state. Another, Raymond, is a large fork lift manufacturer.
They, like all commercial and residential customers would benefit ENORMOUSLY to have gas heat through their cold winters.
A dinky 100 mile pipeline Northern Access, carrying 450 dekatherm from northwest PA to Buffalo was denied NYS permit.
Absolutely criminal.
The owner, utility giant National Fuel Gas, has 3/4 million customers up there and runs Seneca Resources, their upstream operator.
The completely unnecessary economic devastation being wrought in these regions is still in the early stages as the next winter time cold snaps will highlight for all to witness.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 25 May 2017, 22:11:45

Coffee - As long NG prices stay low he'll probably keep getting his. And then when prices eventually boom folks will bitch but the lead time won't help them very much.

And great logic for killing the LNG import terminal: about 40 years ago one blew up in NY and killed 40. I wonder how many have been killed by taxis in NYC over the last 4 decades? And how much more CO2 was emitted over that time by burning fuel oil instead of NG?
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby GoghGoner » Mon 12 Jun 2017, 11:44:11

Hate to toot my own horn, but another month and another revision down to the projected increase -- 0.4 bcf difference month-on-month. So 2017-2018 combined increase is 0.8 bcf less than two months ago.

CHK's current liabilities are greater than their current assets on the balance sheet. They owe more than they are worth. Yep, we are not going to drill our way of this, the shale boom is over but nobody seems to realize it.

Current projection is:
U.S. dry natural gas production is forecast to average 73.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.0 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. This forecast increase would reverse a 2016 production decline, which was the first annual decline since 2005. Natural gas production in 2018 is forecast to be 3.3 Bcf/d above the 2017 level.



https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

U.S. dry natural gas production is forecast to average 73.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.4 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. This increase reverses a 2016 production decline, the first annual decline since 2005. Natural gas production in 2018 is forecast to rise by an average of 4.1 Bcf/d from the 2017 level.


U.S. dry natural gas production is forecast to average 74.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.8 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. This increase reverses a 2016 production decline, which was the first annual decline since 2005. Natural gas production in 2018 is forecast to be 3.2 Bcf/d more than the 2017 level.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Mon 12 Jun 2017, 17:12:09

Ohio just released 1st quarter 2017 Utica results.
87 wells produced over 1 Bcf with 33 of those above 1.4 Bcf.
Expressed in oil terms of energy equivalence, 1.4 Bcf is almost a quarter million barrels of oil ... in three months.
Most prodigious producer flowed over 2.2 Bcf in 90 days ... a flow rate of 25 MMcfd.

There is an almost unfathomable amount of gas in the Appalachian Basin.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Fri 16 Jun 2017, 13:54:56

.
The US Senate has tabled a set of sanctions against Russia and propose to make them federal laws
it seems to aim to cripple Russia gas exports to the EU ,
in particular arctic exploration and the building of North Stream 2
but can also be applied to any mineral extraction .

Frau Merkel is not amused
From the BBC
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40299760
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Fri 16 Jun 2017, 16:20:56

Pennsylvania just released April production numbers.

New monthly record, as far as I know, was set by Cabot's T Kropa 10.
It produced over 1.3 Bcf for April, a daily flow rate of 43,375 MMcfd.
At 1.54 Bcf cum over 5 weeks, it is actually surpassed by the 1.86 Bcf produced by sister well Kropa 8, online 51 days.
The 5 wells recently turned in line on this pad have cumulatively produced over 6 Bcf in 7 weeks time.

This is simply an astonishing amount of gas.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Mon 26 Jun 2017, 10:05:08

.
an all mighty political dogfight is on

Thirteen EU nations back plan for talks with Russia over pipeline
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-gaz ... 9H1O9?il=0
the subtext is kicking the Russians , showing subservience to Washington and helping Ukraine ( who make a lot of money from transit fees )

on one side is the "new Europe" countries , on the other it's Germany and France

"We had 13 delegations intervening, with all of them being supportive of the Commission's approach," Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic told Reuters by telephone after presenting the EU executive's case to member states."

"However, many EU nations have yet to take a stand.

"It is quite toxic. Many member states are quite wary of advertising their position," one diplomat told Reuters."
"Several EU diplomats said the measures proposed by the U.S. Senate have already backfired against their stated aim of bolstering European energy security.

"It's a divisive measure," one senior official said. "It's easy for the U.S. to go after Russian gas of course, they don't use it. ... We are trying to make the best of a bad thing by balancing the interest of different member states."

"Adding to tensions is the threat of new U.S. sanctions on Russia that would penalise Western firms involved in Nord Stream 2: Uniper (EONGn.DE), Wintershall (BASFn.DE), Shell (RDSa.L), OMV (OMVV.VI) and Engie (ENGIE.PA)."
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Mon 26 Jun 2017, 11:47:27

As much as this political fallout is significant, it all pales when one looks at what is happening within Saudi Arabia.
Every month that their foreign reserves decline is akin to one step closer to walking off the edge of the plank.

The economic and geopolitical consequences of all this hydrocarbon stuff these past several years is truly momentous.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 26 Jun 2017, 12:01:57

then would someone please tell me why our constant drumbeat against Russia. The election meddling story completely dominates MSNBC and CNN. I am not even convinced it's real. FOX is no better, at best they ignore the whole damn thing.

What is the US's problem with Russia? Europe desperately needs Russian petroleum. Are we trying to start WWIII. Or just being @jerks? :-x
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